2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Dolphins at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s a reply to a live prop:

A Detroit running back went way over 16.5 receiving yards. Unfortunately, I picked the wrong one. Oh well. Let’s hope DmoneyzPickZ recovers from his hurt feelings.

This is from a reply posted to someone being gleeful that P0rn Hub was banned in 19 states, or something:

I hate authoritarian garbage from the right almost as much as I do from the left. At least I can talk to people on the right, as pious as some of them may be. People on the left are imbeciles who are so brainwashed that they believe people can successfully change their gender. Sorry to break it to you bozos, but they’re not trans; they’re eunuchs.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: If you were to ask casual bettors and common fans how this game would go, you’d probably get a prediction of like 16-13, or even 6-3, because both teams have dreadful offenses. The Dolphins lost Tyreek Hill and can’t block, while the Browns have Dillon Gabriel. How can the Browns possibly score with Gabriel?

The Steelers just clamped down on Gabriel, limiting him to just nine points. However, there’s a huge difference between Pittsburgh’s defense and Miami’s defense. The Dolphins can’t stop anything. They get no pressure on the quarterback, so Gabriel will have plenty of time to locate his tight ends as he dinks and dunks down the field.

Gabriel may not need to do much, anyway. That’s because Quinshon Judkins is in the same backfield. Judkins has been highly impressive thus far and projects to have an amazing game. Two weeks ago, the Dolphins surrendered 206 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle. Last week, Kimani Vidal ran all over them. Judkins is far better than Dowdle and Vidal, so he could also threaten 200 rushing yards.

MIAMI OFFENSE: As mentioned earlier, the Dolphins can’t block. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. This does bode well for them in this matchup against Cleveland’s stalwart front.

Tua Tagovailoa will constantly be under siege by Myles Garrett and company. Tagovailoa has played poorly in most games this year, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he once again had a dreadful performance.

The Dolphins’ only hope of moving the chains is via De’Von Achane, though Achane may have to do that as a receiver out of the backfield. Cleveland is No. 6 against the run, so Achane won’t get much on the ground.

RECAP: If you analyze the four units in this game – Browns offense and defense, Dolphins offense and defense – the best unit is Cleveland’s defense, and it’s not even close. And while some may consider Cleveland’s defense to be the worst of the four, I would disagree and point to all the mediocre running backs who have trampled the Dolphins lately. Cleveland’s offense at least has some talented players like Judkins and David Njoku, plus a quality interior offensive line.

This is an easy play on the Browns. Miami +2.5 is attracting square public bettors, which is music to my ears because we’re betting on the team with the far superior defense, offensive line, and running game. If you go position by position, the only place the Dolphins are definitively better is at quarterback, and it’s not like their quarterback is even playing well.

There might be some fear in betting the Browns, but consider that they outgained the Bengals in Week 1 and Ravens in Week 2. They upset the Packers in Week 3. And they nearly defeated the Vikings in London. They also hung tight against the Steelers before that game got away from them.

Also, don’t forget that Tagovailoa threw his teammates under the bus in a post-game interview last week. I don’t know if that’ll adversely affect the Dolphins, but it easily could. The Miami linemen may not feel too bad if they allow an unblocked pass rusher to come through and hit their quarterback.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

Tua Tagovailoa threw his teammates under the bus.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -2.5.

Computer Model: Browns -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

The Dolphins are publicly backed underdogs.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 70% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Kevin Stefanski is 14-23 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Browns -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .