2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Patriots at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I loved Drake Maye heading into this year. He was my No. 1 drafted quarterback in best ball, and he’s my quarterback on two of my three fantasy teams. Despite this, I didn’t see him becoming such a prolific passer so quickly. I’m sure you’ve all seen the stat: Maye became just the fourth quarterback under 24 to ever have five consecutive games of 200-plus yards and a 100-plus QB rating. The other three were Patrick Mahomes, Dan Marino, and Dak Prescott. And sure, that seems like data mining, but it shouldn’t take away from the fact that Maye has been incredibly impressive.

Maye could extend that streak to six games, given the easy matchup. The Titans have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, while their secondary is rather woeful outside of Roger McCreary and Xavier Woods. Maye shouldn’t have any sort of issue dissecting Tennessee, and I’m sure he’ll pick up yardage on the ground when necessary.

Speaking of ground yardage, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson figure to perform well in this game. The Titans are just 19th against the run. Hopefully it’s more Henderson than Stevenson, as this has been about the only thing Mike Vrabel has gotten wrong this year.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Vrabel has done a great job of improving the defense over the garbage we saw from the Patriots last year. This doesn’t bode well for Cam Ward, who has struggled thus far, likely as a result of some dreadful coaching.

We’ll get to the coaching in a bit, but I can’t see Ward having a good game. The Patriots do a decent job of getting to the quarterback, and Ward has taken more sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL. Making matters worse for Ward, he may not have Calvin Ridley, who suffered a hamstring injury last week.

Don’t expect much from Tennessee’s ground game either. The Patriots are seventh against the run, so they shouldn’t have a problem clamping down on Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears.

RECAP: Brian Callahan was fired. I was hoping to see Vrabel come into Tennessee and embarrass the organization that unjustly fired him by coaching circles around the man who replaced him, but we unfortunately won’t see that.

Still, this is obviously a big game for Vrabel. He undoubtedly circled this game on the calendar when the schedule was released. I imagine he’ll put 110 percent into this game plan, so I expect him to embarrass his former organization regardless.

As for the Tennessee coaching situation, teams were 1-2 against the spread after firing their head coach last year. The Saints covered against a reeling Falcons team. The Jets managed to keep their game close against the Bills. Conversely, the Bears were destroyed at San Francisco.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not only is this revenge for Mike Vrabel; it’s also revenge for Harold Landry. However, Landry didn’t practice on Wednesday, so this is a situation to monitor.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Patriots have two important questionable players, one on each side of the ball. Stefon Diggs was limited on Wednesday and Thursday, while Harold Landry was DNP on both Wednesday and Thursday. Both, however, practiced fully on Friday, so that’s obviously great news. The Titans may also have good news with T’Vondre Sweat possibly returning, but he may have to wait one more week. Sweat was limited every day, so given that he’s been out for a while, he may not be 100 percent if he even plays. The Titans won’t have Calvin Ridley, which hurts their chances of a potential back-door cover.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is the first final thought I’m posting first because of a unit change. There’s going to be very heavy winds in Tennessee, which will make it difficult to throw downfield. This obviously hurts the Patriots more than the Titans. The sharps, as a result, came in on Tennessee this morning. I’m going to drop this pick to three units. The best line is -6.5 +101 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.

Mike Vrabel versus his former team.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.

Computer Model: Patriots -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Plenty of action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 81% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Opening Line: Patriots -6.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Likely thunderstorms, 66 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.