2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Colts at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

Video of the Week: I was searching for a specific commercial to make fun of in Jerks of the Week, and I stumbled upon this racist ad:

Wow, that took a dark turn at the end – literally! Here’s the plot twist: The black guy is the little girl’s real father!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers can’t block whatsoever. Their offensive line is in shambles. I didn’t think this would matter last week because the Dolphins are incapable of consistently pressuring opposing quarterbacks. The Chargers, as a result, held a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter. They blew that lead, but still outgained the Dolphins in total net yards and yards per play.

The Colts, unlike Miami, can generate a strong pass rush. They have 122 pressures through six games, so they’ll be able to put pressure on Justin Herbert. It won’t help Herbert that Quentin Johnston may miss another game after being sidelined this past week. Ladd McConkey, who picked up the slack in the wake of Johnston’s absence, has a very difficult matchup against Kenny Moore.

The Chargers won’t be able to keep the Colts honest with their rushing attack either. Kimani Vidal just had a solid performance last week, but did so against a Miami defense that surrendered 206 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle the prior week. The Colts are much better against the run, ranking eighth in that department.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I thought Denzel Perryman’s return would help the Chargers. Stopping the run had been a huge issue with Perryman sidelined, as seen in Washington’s win at Los Angeles where Jacory Croskey-Merritt had his best game of the season. Perryman is excellent in run support, but he didn’t do anything to help the situation. De’Von Achane blew by the beleaguered Charger defenders en route to a 120-yard game.

If Achane, running behind a putrid offensive line, could put together a great game, what is Jonathan Taylor going to do? Taylor has been enjoying an amazing season and should continue to do so in this latest favorable matchup.

Taylor’s great running will put Daniel Jones into more favorable situations. Jones won’t be able to attack with Tyler Warren for once because Derwin James typically shuts down opposing tight ends. Instead, Jones can pick up yardage with his legs.

RECAP: I was fine backing the Chargers last week because Miami couldn’t take advantage of the poor offensive line situation. The Chargers didn’t cover, but they were up 13 in the fourth quarter and would have gotten there had they not inexplicably blown a coverage on Darren Waller for the first time all afternoon.

The Colts, however, provide a much greater challenge. Their defensive line will put the clamps on Vidal and harass Herbert. All of this makes the Colts look great, but there is so much money coming in on them. They’re heavy public dogs. In fact, they’re currently getting more bets than any other team this week.

For this reason, I’m trying to talk myself into picking the Chargers. I can’t come up with a sound explanation yet for why the Chargers would be the right side, but perhaps I’ll find something later in the week. If not, maybe I’ll just come to terms with siding with the Colts even though the public has gotten absolutely slaughtered this year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Joe Alt continued to miss practice. Josh Downs is missing time with a concussion, but that’s not nearly as significant.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a lot here. The Chargers had some bad news in that Joe Alt is doubtful. However, everything else is positive. They’ll likely have an offensive lineman back, with Jamaree Salyer being limited in practice all week. Even better, Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman will reportedly be activated for this game. I had some bad info telling me that Perryman would play last week, but it makes sense for him to return now, given that he practiced fully all week. Perryman is going to make a big difference against the run. Another player who will make a big difference is Quentin Johnston because the Colts have cluster injuries at cornerback, with Charvarius Ward out and Kenny Moore likely sidelined as well. I’m going to switch my pick and put three units on the Chargers. With the public pounding the Colts, we can see the line beginning to move in the Chargers’ favor, which is a very bullish indicator for them.

PLAYER PROPS: Jonathan Taylor going over 91.5 rushing yards may seem like an easy feat, but he’s done it in just half of his games in 2025. The Chargers have been allowing lots of rushing yards, but Denzel Perryman is returning to action to help clamp down on the run. The best number is under 91.5 rushing yards -114 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Depending on the injury report, and how the early games are going, I may extend this pick to four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was a small chance Joe Alt would play, but he won’t be available. The Chargers will have Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman back in action. The sharps are on the Chargers, which is nice to see. We’ll add a fourth unit on this game. The best line is Chargers -2.5 -110 at FanDuel and Caesars. FanDuel has a 30-percent boost up to $25, so 0.25 units will be used there. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Tons of money on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 86% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.