2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Rams at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BOYCOTT GAME: I will be boycotting this game, and I urge all of you to do the same. When the NFL had one game in Europe and played it at 1 p.m. Eastern, I was fine with it. Two games began pushing it, and then three games were unacceptable. Now, there are seven European games, and they all begin at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast, which absolutely screws everyone living in that time zone. Football needs to be in America; not Europe. The NFL needs to go back to just one European game. Tell Roger Goodell to f**k off and buy this Make Football American Again t-shirt:

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: We must begin with the Rams when discussing this game because that’s where the major injury happens to be. Puka Nacua suffered an injury against the Ravens while going up for a touchdown. He missed some time and then returned to action, but had to leave the game again. He was referred to as day to day, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be able to suit up for this game.

Luckily for Matthew Stafford, he’ll be battling a Jacksonville defense that will be missing star linebacker Devin Lloyd. And even with Lloyd on the field, the Jaguars have allowed some big passing plays recently. They had no answer for what Sam Darnold was doing this past week, so Davante Adams could be a major force in this contest. Stafford also made good use of Tyler Higbee last week, as the veteran tight end is healthy again. It must be noted that Stafford won’t have much time to throw because the Jaguars can generate a quality pass rush, but Stafford is protected well.

Stafford will need to be on his “A” game because the Jaguars have been decent against the run this year. Jacksonville doesn’t have an impenetrable run defense, or anything, but it’s not like Kyren Williams has been great enough this year to overcome the matchup.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I wrote that Stafford needs to be on his “A” game. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been on his “A” game for most of the year, but he had an excellent second half versus the Chiefs – albeit with some help from Kansas City’s mental errors – and then continued to play well against the Seahawks. Lawrence wasn’t perfect by any means, but he completed several downfield shots. He would’ve had two more, but Travis Hunter was flagged for lining up incorrectly, and then Brian Thomas Jr. committed a brutal drop.

Lawrence may find it difficult to repeat last week’s performance. He was under siege often by the Seahawks, but he’ll face even more pressure from the Rams’ terrific front seven.

Perhaps Lawrence will be able to elude the pass rush by feeding Travis Etienne. The spry back struggled last week, but was faced with an extremely difficult matchup versus Seattle’s run defense. The Rams were ranked highly against the run to start the year, but they’ve shown cracks in their ground defense recently.

RECAP: My rule for international games is the same one as the one I have for Thursday games: Back the superior team as long as they’re focused. The reason for this is that the inferior team won’t have the adequate preparation time it needs to overcome a difficult opponent.

I believe the Rams to be the superior team in this matchup, but I’m not sure if Nacua’s injury changes that. Nacua is a special player, so the Rams are obviously worse offensively without him.

There’s also the matter of the Rams playing a 6:30 a.m. Pacific time game. It’s absolutely ridiculous that the Rams have to play in these circumstances, though it’s not surprising because Roger Goodell is such a globalist pig. If there’s anyone who can overcome these circumstances, it’s Sean McVay, who is an excellent coach with a long history of success in early games. McVay is 11-6 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast contests, and really should be 12-5 because of how the Eagles game ended in Week 3. Playing at 10 a.m. and 6 a.m. is much different, however, so I’m not completely confident that the Rams can perform up to their abilities, especially without Nacua.

I’m still going to side with the Rams because I’m not a believer in the Jaguars, but I won’t be betting on this latest international garbage.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.5.

Computer Model: Rams -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 62% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Jaguars are 68-114 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 23-55 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .