2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Panthers at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: As Evan Daniel put it, the Jets players gave up on the coaches in Week 5, and the Jets coaches gave up on the players in Week 6. The play-calling was woeful against the Broncos in London. The Jets constantly called runs on first and second downs, giving Justin Fields no chance in third-and-long situations. The result was negative-10 yards passing for Fields, as the Jets generated a laughable 1.4 yards per play. I still can’t believe they covered the spread.

As if things weren’t going poorly enough for Fields, he now won’t have his No. 1 receiver, Garrett Wilson, for a few weeks. It’s unclear where Fields will turn for offensive production, aside from impressive rookie tight end Mason Taylor. Fields will obviously utilize his legs more so than ever, especially with his job potentially being on the line.

Fields would love to lean on Breece Hall, but that may not be possible in this game. Believe it or not, the Panthers are the NFL’s No. 1 run defense since Week 2. Hard to believe, but true! They’ve limited De’Von Achane to 16 rushing yards, Javonte Williams to 29 rushing yards, and James Conner to 34 rushing yards. Assuming this continues, they’ll be able to put the clamps on Hall.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: While the Panthers have shut down opposing rushing attacks, they’ve also been able to trample the opposition as well. Rico Dowdle has been a revelation for the Panthers. He’s rushed for north of 380 yards in the previous two games alone!

There’s no reason to believe that Dowdle will slow down at all. His next opponent is the Jets, who are habitually poor against the run. They’re 14th this year, but both Achane and James Cook had monster games against them.

Bryce Young will continue to need Dowdle’s help because he still can’t see over the line of scrimmage. Also, he won’t be able to target Tetairoa McMillan frequently as a result of Sauce Gardner’s excellent coverage. It’s a good thing for Young then that Jalen Coker is set to return from injury.

RECAP: This is one of the least-appealing games to bet this week. Why? Let’s run through the possibilities:

If you back the Panthers, you’ll be betting them off a win as a road favorite, with a matchup against Buffalo looming. Who on Earth wants to bet the crappy Panthers as a road favorite in a potential look-ahead situation, even though they are suddenly somehow No. 1 against the run? I certainly do not.

If you side with the Jets, you’re going with quite possibly the NFL’s worst team that just quit versus the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. The Jets also won’t have their only dynamic downfield threat. And while we’re getting line value with the Jets, who were +2.5 on the advance spread, we’re going against sharp money, which seems to be on Carolina.

Gun to my head, I’d take the Panthers. Luckily, we’re not forced to bet every game!

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Panthers are coming off a win, and they have the Bills next week.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -2.5.

Computer Model: Panthers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Plenty of action on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 69% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Opening Line: Jets -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .