2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Panthers at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: As Evan Daniel put it, the Jets players gave up on the coaches in Week 5, and the Jets coaches gave up on the players in Week 6. The play-calling was woeful against the Broncos in London. The Jets constantly called runs on first and second downs, giving Justin Fields no chance in third-and-long situations. The result was negative-10 yards passing for Fields, as the Jets generated a laughable 1.4 yards per play. I still can’t believe they covered the spread.

As if things weren’t going poorly enough for Fields, he now won’t have his No. 1 receiver, Garrett Wilson, for a few weeks. It’s unclear where Fields will turn for offensive production, aside from impressive rookie tight end Mason Taylor. Fields will obviously utilize his legs more so than ever, especially with his job potentially being on the line.

Fields would love to lean on Breece Hall, but that may not be possible in this game. Believe it or not, the Panthers are the NFL’s No. 1 run defense since Week 2. Hard to believe, but true! They’ve limited De’Von Achane to 16 rushing yards, Javonte Williams to 29 rushing yards, and James Conner to 34 rushing yards. Assuming this continues, they’ll be able to put the clamps on Hall.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: While the Panthers have shut down opposing rushing attacks, they’ve also been able to trample the opposition as well. Rico Dowdle has been a revelation for the Panthers. He’s rushed for north of 380 yards in the previous two games alone!

There’s no reason to believe that Dowdle will slow down at all. His next opponent is the Jets, who are habitually poor against the run. They’re 14th this year, but both Achane and James Cook had monster games against them.

Bryce Young will continue to need Dowdle’s help because he still can’t see over the line of scrimmage. Also, he won’t be able to target Tetairoa McMillan frequently as a result of Sauce Gardner’s excellent coverage. It’s a good thing for Young then that Jalen Coker is set to return from injury.

RECAP: This is one of the least-appealing games to bet this week. Why? Let’s run through the possibilities:

If you back the Panthers, you’ll be betting them off a win as a road favorite, with a matchup against Buffalo looming. Who on Earth wants to bet the crappy Panthers as a road favorite in a potential look-ahead situation, even though they are suddenly somehow No. 1 against the run? I certainly do not.

If you side with the Jets, you’re going with quite possibly the NFL’s worst team that just quit versus the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. The Jets also won’t have their only dynamic downfield threat. And while we’re getting line value with the Jets, who were +2.5 on the advance spread, we’re going against sharp money, which seems to be on Carolina.

Gun to my head, I’d take the Panthers. Luckily, we’re not forced to bet every game!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t have a strong take on this game, but Andy likes the Jets, as you can see in this video:

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick, and I may bet this game. The Panthers have a ton of injuries. Their offensive line looks like it could be in shambles. Robert Hunt is already on injured reserve. Damien Lewis missed practice Thursday and Friday. Taylor Moton was limited all week after missing the previous game. Austin Corbett could return to action, but he may not be 100 percent or even available off such a long absence. And if that wasn’t enough, the Panthers are going to be missing Patrick Jones, who is the team’s second-best run stopper on the defensive line. The Jets suck, but they can beat a very banged-up Carolina squad at home.

PLAYER PROPS: Tetairoa McMillan has caught more than four passes on just one occasion since Week 3, and yet this line is 4.5. And that’s not even factoring in Sauce Gardner’s coverage and Jalen Coker’s return! BetMGM has a 20-percent boost up to $50, so we’re going to turn Tetairoa McMillan under 4.5 receptions -130 into -109.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was the potential for the Panthers offensive line to be a disaster, but they’re going to be missing “only” two blockers. Both guards are out, so their center is going to man one of those spots. The Panthers will also be getting back Travelle Wharton and Jalen Coker, while the Jets will be missing Michael Carter. I still want to fade the Panthers off two wins, and so do the sharps, apparently. The pros have taken the Jets to a favorite, but you can still get +1 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Panthers are coming off a win, and they have the Bills next week.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -2.5.

Computer Model: Panthers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Plenty of action on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 66% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Opening Line: Jets -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.