NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
2025 NFL Picks: 53-51-1 (-$2,445)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 19, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

Video of the Week: I was searching for a specific commercial to make fun of in Jerks of the Week, and I stumbled upon this racist ad:

Wow, that took a dark turn at the end – literally! Here’s the plot twist: The black guy is the little girl’s real father!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers can’t block whatsoever. Their offensive line is in shambles. I didn’t think this would matter last week because the Dolphins are incapable of consistently pressuring opposing quarterbacks. The Chargers, as a result, held a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter. They blew that lead, but still outgained the Dolphins in total net yards and yards per play.

The Colts, unlike Miami, can generate a strong pass rush. They have 122 pressures through six games, so they’ll be able to put pressure on Justin Herbert. It won’t help Herbert that Quentin Johnston may miss another game after being sidelined this past week. Ladd McConkey, who picked up the slack in the wake of Johnston’s absence, has a very difficult matchup against Kenny Moore.

The Chargers won’t be able to keep the Colts honest with their rushing attack either. Kimani Vidal just had a solid performance last week, but did so against a Miami defense that surrendered 206 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle the prior week. The Colts are much better against the run, ranking eighth in that department.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I thought Denzel Perryman’s return would help the Chargers. Stopping the run had been a huge issue with Perryman sidelined, as seen in Washington’s win at Los Angeles where Jacory Croskey-Merritt had his best game of the season. Perryman is excellent in run support, but he didn’t do anything to help the situation. De’Von Achane blew by the beleaguered Charger defenders en route to a 120-yard game.

If Achane, running behind a putrid offensive line, could put together a great game, what is Jonathan Taylor going to do? Taylor has been enjoying an amazing season and should continue to do so in this latest favorable matchup.

Taylor’s great running will put Daniel Jones into more favorable situations. Jones won’t be able to attack with Tyler Warren for once because Derwin James typically shuts down opposing tight ends. Instead, Jones can pick up yardage with his legs.

RECAP: I was fine backing the Chargers last week because Miami couldn’t take advantage of the poor offensive line situation. The Chargers didn’t cover, but they were up 13 in the fourth quarter and would have gotten there had they not inexplicably blown a coverage on Darren Waller for the first time all afternoon.

The Colts, however, provide a much greater challenge. Their defensive line will put the clamps on Vidal and harass Herbert. All of this makes the Colts look great, but there is so much money coming in on them. They’re heavy public dogs. In fact, they’re currently getting more bets than any other team this week.

For this reason, I’m trying to talk myself into picking the Chargers. I can’t come up with a sound explanation yet for why the Chargers would be the right side, but perhaps I’ll find something later in the week. If not, maybe I’ll just come to terms with siding with the Colts even though the public has gotten absolutely slaughtered this year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Joe Alt continued to miss practice. Josh Downs is missing time with a concussion, but that’s not nearly as significant.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a lot here. The Chargers had some bad news in that Joe Alt is doubtful. However, everything else is positive. They’ll likely have an offensive lineman back, with Jamaree Salyer being limited in practice all week. Even better, Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman will reportedly be activated for this game. I had some bad info telling me that Perryman would play last week, but it makes sense for him to return now, given that he practiced fully all week. Perryman is going to make a big difference against the run. Another player who will make a big difference is Quentin Johnston because the Colts have cluster injuries at cornerback, with Charvarius Ward out and Kenny Moore likely sidelined as well. I’m going to switch my pick and put three units on the Chargers. With the public pounding the Colts, we can see the line beginning to move in the Chargers’ favor, which is a very bullish indicator for them.

PLAYER PROPS: Jonathan Taylor going over 91.5 rushing yards may seem like an easy feat, but he’s done it in just half of his games in 2025. The Chargers have been allowing lots of rushing yards, but Denzel Perryman is returning to action to help clamp down on the run. The best number is under 91.5 rushing yards -114 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Depending on the injury report, and how the early games are going, I may extend this pick to four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was a small chance Joe Alt would play, but he won’t be available. The Chargers will have Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman back in action. The sharps are on the Chargers, which is nice to see. We’ll add a fourth unit on this game. The best line is Chargers -2.5 -110 at FanDuel and Caesars. FanDuel has a 30-percent boost up to $25, so 0.25 units will be used there. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Tons of money on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 86% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos had a truly pathetic offensive performance against th Jets. Battling a defense that was torched by a CeeDee Lamb-less and offensive line-less Dallas offense, the Broncos couldn’t even crack five yards per play. They crushed themselves with idiotic mistakes, mostly by guard Matt Peart. Bo Nix wasn’t great either, especially in the second half.

Perhaps the most troubling thing for the Broncos in the London game was that they couldn’t run at all against a dreadful Jets run defense. J.K. Dobbins managed just 40 rushing yards against a team that was gashed by Javonte Williams the prior week. The Broncos may have missed injured guard Ben Powers, so even though they’re battling the Giants’ poor run defense, there’s no guarantee that they’ll be able to get Dobbins going.

Nix will have to do more on his own, and he’ll be facing a terrific pass rush. The good news for Nix is that he’ll be able to throw to Courtland Sutton again, as Sauce Gardner just shut down the Denver No. 1 receiver.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Nix is fortunate that his defense bailed him out against the Jets. Denver limited the Jets to just 1.4 yards per play, which is why they were able to win despite all the blunders. The Broncos had an easy matchup against Justin Fields, but things won’t be as simple against New York’s other quarterback.

Jaxson Dart has been excellent thus far, looking good against a pair of quality defenses he’s seen in the Chargers and Eagles. This is his toughest test yet, however. The Broncos, who logged nine sacks against Fields, have the most pressures in the NFL. I don’t have much faith in the Giants’ offensive line being able to protect the Denver pass rushers, so Dart has his work cut out for him. His mobility will be crucial in this contest.

I don’t see Cam Skattebo having much success either. The Broncos aren’t as good against the run as the pass, but they’re still 10th in that department. Skattebo will have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: The Broncos are 4-2, but they’re a fraudulent 4-2. They’ve beaten three Group F teams, and they’ve failed to cover two of those games. Their other victory was against the Eagles, who fell asleep at the wheel while holding a 17-3 lead.

The Giants aren’t a tough opponent, but they’re not a Group F team either, so there’s a decent chance the Giants stay within the number. They have a nice rest edge as well, as they’ve had extra time to prepare following their Thursday night victory, while the Broncos are flying all the way from London to Denver, which is not exactly a short flight.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I forgot to note that Dre Greenlaw figures to return to action now that he’s designated from return. He was limited in Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t like seeing John Michael Schmitz sidelined for this game because he’s been New York’s second-best offensive lineman. Abdul Carter is also iffy to play after being downgraded on Friday, albeit to limited. The Broncos, meanwhile, don’t really have any injuries to speak of, and they will likely be getting Dre Greenlaw back from injured reserve. Denver looks better following the injuries, so I’m going to downgrade this to two units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: If you’re able to make a late pick switch to the Broncos in your office pool, I would do so. The sharps are hammering Denver. I don’t think the Giants will be able to do the few good things they usually can do, as I discussed in my quick video this week:

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants will have Abdul Carter, so that closes the door to any thought of betting the Broncos. I would still lean Denver, which is where the sharps have gone. The pros were on Denver at -7, -7.5, and even -8. The best line is -8 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -8.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Plenty of money on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 70% (122,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -8.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Sunny, 70 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels and Jacory Croskey-Merritt threw away a potential victory on Monday night. Daniels fired an interception early in the game, then Croskey-Merritt lost a fumble. The two then combined for a botched handoff that gave the Bears the victory.

I’d say that Daniels and Croskey-Merritt will be able to bounce back by exposing a poor defensive opponent, but they weren’t exactly challenged by Chicago’s lackluster stop unit either. Still, the Cowboys are worse in almost every regard. Their defense just allowed Rico Dowdle to rush for 180 yards, so Croskey-Merritt is likely to have the best game of his young career thus far.

If the Redskins establish Croskey-Merritt, things will be even more difficult for the Cowboys than initially anticipated. They don’t have much of a pass rush, so Daniels will have all the time he needs in the pocket, especially if Sam Cosmi returns from the PUP list to play for the first time all year. Cosmi practiced fully last week, so he should be able to play. Perhaps Terry McLaurin will return as well.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Mistakes happen in the NFL. Sometimes, lots of mistakes happen. It would be one thing if the Redskins had miscues offensively to give away some free points and the win to the opposition. However, what we also saw on Monday night was the Redskins struggle to stop what the Bears were doing offensively.

D’Andre Swift, in particular, was a dynamic threat against the Redskins. I just read that sentence aloud and realized how improbable that should have been, but it’s true. Swift was great against the Redskins, who were 19th against the run heading into Monday night. Javonte Williams should be able to pick up where Swift left off.

Williams will be able to give Dak Prescott plenty of favorable passing situations. Prescott is playing some great football right now even though CeeDee Lamb has been out of the lineup since Week 3. There’s an outside chance Lamb will be able to return this week, which does not bode well for a Washington defense that has issues in the secondary.

RECAP: I can’t really say that I have much interest in betting this game. The Redskins are better than the Cowboys, but they’re coming off a short week in which they’ll have to travel. I like that they’re coming off a loss, but so is Dallas.

Your guess is as good as mine in this game. I’m going to have a very small lean on the Redskins, just because I trust them a bit more, even after what transpired Monday night. I also think there’s a slightly better chance that they get their injured players back to the field than Dallas.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: CeeDee Lamb figures to return this week, but I would still take the Redskins if I were betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: As expected, CeeDee Lamb will play. He doesn’t even have an injury designation. Meanwhile, the Redskins won’t have Terry McLaurin, while Deebo Samuel could also be out after being DNP-DNP-limited this week. Cluster injuries are never a good thing, but it’s not like the backup receivers will have a challenge against a Dallas secondary that will be missing Trevon Diggs, Malik Hooker, and possibly Juanyeh Thomas. These cluster injuries, plus Lamb’s return, could be why the sharps moved Dallas to being favored.

PLAYER PROPS: Jake Ferguson has been on a tear, but that’ll end for the most part. He and CeeDee Lamb occupy the same area of the field, so Ferguson won’t do as much with Lamb returning to action. The best number is under 40.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Someone on Facebook yelled at me for liking the Cowboys, but I’m on the Redskins. Washington won’t have Deebo Samuel or Terry McLaurin, but Dallas’ poor secondary won’t be able to take advantage of that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and Trevon Diggs are all sidelined. I’m still no units on the Redskins, but the sharps bet Dallas earlier in the weekend. The best line is +1.5 -105 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -2.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 59% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Cowboys have won 13 of the previous 18 meetings.

Dak Prescott is 39-32 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Redskins -2.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: We currently don’t know Kyler Murray’s status. Murray wasn’t needed last week, as Jacoby Brissett quarterbacked the Cardinals well. He nearly led Arizona to an upset victory over the 5-1 Colts. He proved once again that he’s one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL.

Murray may be needed, however, if Green Bay’s defense is legitimate. This is because backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top-10 defenses. The Packers certainly looked like they had a top-10 defense in the first two weeks of the season when they put the clamps on the Lions and Redskins. It’s unclear what has happened since, but they’ve been torched by the CeeDee Lamb-less Cowboys and Joe Flacco. As a result, they are ranked 19th in defense.

The strength of Green Bay’s defense is obviously Micah Parsons and the rest of the pass rush. However, the Cardinals have a quality blocking unit. Murray’s mobility will be crucial here, as he’ll be able to escape some pressure and pick up some first downs with his legs.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Ask anyone which team in this game has the higher defensive rating, and almost everyone would say the Packers. However, the Cardinals have a better EPA rating on defense. This is because of an improved defensive line and secondary.

The Packers aren’t completely healthy up front, particularly in the interior of the line, so that’s an area in which the Cardinals can win and bother “No Cookie” Jordan Love. While Love is seen by many as a mediocre quarterback, he currently ranks second on the season in quarterback EPA. This is impressive, given the injuries Green Bay has in its receiver corps. Love should be able to engineer numerous scoring drives.

Green Bay should be able to get Josh Jacobs going as well. Jacobs doesn’t have as easy of a matchup this week as he did versus the Bengals this past Sunday, but he should still perform well because the Cardinals are ranked in the middle of the pack versus ground attacks.

RECAP: We have an overrated entity versus an underrated team. The Packers defense, seen as great, are ranked just 19th in EPA following Week 1. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are viewed as pedestrian because of their underwhelming 2-4 record, but they’re 13th in defense and 18th in offense. All four of their losses have been by one score, and all four were a play away from being Arizona victories.

With that in mind, this line is too high. I made the spread Arizona +3.5, but it’s sitting at +6.5. If I’m correct, we’re getting a top key number in six and a minor key number in four. That’s a ton of value for Arizona.

This is also an awful spot for the Packers. They’re coming off a win, and after this “easy” game against a 2-4 opponent, they have to battle the 4-1 Steelers on Sunday Night Football. This, of course, is the first time they’ll be battling their former quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.

Furthermore, the public likes Green Bay because they remember how great they were in the first two weeks of the season, but that was against the Lions, who had trouble preparing for Week 1 because of all their coaching changes, and the Redskins in one of those weird Thursday night games. This is a nice opportunity to fade the public, which has gotten slaughtered this year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray was limited in Wednesday’s practice, which bodes well for his chances of playing in this game. The Packers, meanwhile, may not have Zach Tom or Devonte Wyatt again.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are a ton of questionable players entering this game. Kyler Murray is the most prominent one. Darius Robinson is also questionable for Arizona. The Packers, meanwhile, have Josh Jacobs, Zach Tom, and Nate Hobbs, while Devonte Wyatt is out again. We’ll have to see the inactives list for more clarity. Right now, I’m leaning toward dropping my unit count because the Steelers were torched by Joe Flacco, like the Packers were in the second half of last week’s game. This makes Green Bay’s defense look better.

PICK CHANGE: Jacoby Brissett will start. My rule with backup quarterbacks is to fade them versus top-12 defenses. The Packers aren’t ranked in the top 12 right now, but they could be in the future. I also think that I was quick to overreact to last week’s game, especially after seeing Joe Flacco light up the Steelers with far more success than he had versus Green Bay. I’m changing my pick to the Packers and putting two units on them.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Packers had a 5-hour flight delay heading to Arizona. They arrived at midnight. I think they’ll be OK. The greater concern is that Josh Jacobs is looking very iffy to play. I still like Green Bay despite these two items.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Josh Jacobs and Zach Tom are active, which is huge for the Packers. The sharps like them, or at least they did at -6.5. The best line is -7 +101 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Packers, coming off a win, have to battle Aaron Rodgers next week.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -5.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Slight lean on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 60% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Matt LaFleur is 60-44 ATS in the regular season.

Cardinals are 51-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Packers -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss all the crazy responses to my Money Laundering t-shirt.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: One major reason why I moved the Falcons up to Group B in my NFL Power Rankings is that they are ranked No. 1 in EPA defense. Their pass rush suffocated Josh Allen in the Monday night victory over Buffalo. What did they did to shut down Allen and Buffalo’s high-octane offense was very impressive.

If the Falcons can limit Allen, they’ll be able to put the clamps on the 49ers as well. It’s unclear if Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle will be able to even play this week. Right now, it’s just Mac Jones throwing to Kendrick Bourne when the ball isn’t going to Christian McCaffrey, which isn’t overly difficult to stop. Atlanta’s secondary is terrific, so covering Bourne and a hobbled Jauan Jennings seems rather simple for the Falcons.

Speaking of McCaffrey, he has the easiest matchup of any San Francisco player, if only by default. The Falcons are just mediocre versus the run, but it doesn’t seem like the 49ers run block well enough to take advantage of that. McCaffrey may once again have to do most of his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While Atlanta’s defense is thriving right now, the same can’t be said of San Francisco’s defense. Things were already bad with Nick Bosa done for the year, but now the 49ers will have to endure Fred Warner’s season-ending injury. Warner is the best off-ball linebacker in the NFL. He’s the heart and soul of San Francisco’s defense, and without him, the 49ers are going to be rudderless on this side of the ball.

Warner was terrific in run support, among other things, so his absence will surely be felt versus rushing attacks. That obviously doesn’t bode well for this matchup because the Falcons run the ball better than any other team in the NFL, save for perhaps the Colts and the Ravens when everyone’s healthy. Bijan Robinson is coming off an amazing Monday night performance and should continue to dominate.

Robinson’s great running will open up short-yardage opportunities for Michael Penix Jr. Penix will utilize Drake London frequently, as London has gotten more targets recently since the Falcons began utilizing him more in the slot.

RECAP: If you were to tell me that the Falcons would be 100-percent focused for this game, I think I would back them. I’d hesitate because of Ciracdian rhythms favoring a West Coast team at home in a night game, but I’d be OK with it because Atlanta is the better team, while San Francisco has so many injuries.

However, we’ve seen what happens when the Falcons win a huge game on national TV. They prevailed against the Vikings in Week 2 and then proceeded to lay a huge egg versus Carolina the following week. Could it happen again? I think there’s a decent chance it does. Following the win over the Bills, Robinson told the reporter that “all eyes were on us tonight” because this version of the Falcons had never hosted a Monday night game.

The Falcons put so much stock into defeating Buffalo, so what’s going to happen now that they’ve achieved their goal? It’s not out of the question that they could be similarly flat like they were at Carolina.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ricky Pearsall and Dominick Puni missed Wednesday’s practice, but Brock Purdy and George Kittle were both involved on a limited basis.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers aren’t the only team with major injuries. Jake Matthews may not play this game after getting in one limited practice all week, meaning the Falcons could be down their top three tackles. Of course, the 49ers have more injuries, and Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall will be out again. However, George Kittle has no injury designation, so that’s nice.

I’m going to be betting the 49ers. I hate this spot for the Falcons, while San Francisco has the superior coaching and will benefit from Circadian rhythms.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: DraftKings has a 30-percent parlay boost for this game. We’re going with Jauan Jennings under 3.5 receptions, Kendrick Bourne over 46.5 receiving yards, George Kittle over 3.5 receptions, and Bijan Robinson over 4.5 receptions. This $25 parlay pays $227.50 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I changed my unit count in this game to two. This appears to be a great spot for the 49ers, who will have George Kittle available.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprise injuries, and there’s no sharp action on this game. I’ve decided not to bet this contest because every pick change I’ve made backfired on me today. If you still like the 49ers, the best line is -1 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The Falcons are coming off an upset win on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -4.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -3.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Tons of action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 66% (158,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

49ers are 44-33 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Clear, 73 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted two live bets during the Chiefs-Jaguars game. I tweeted out that I was betting the Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes rushing overs, and both hit. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield is currently third in MVP voting odds, and it’s not difficult to see why. Mayfield has led the Buccaneers to a 5-1 record despite missing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for a majority of games. And last week, when Emeka Egbuka went down, Mayfield was able to will his team to victory throwing to Sterling Shepard and two unknowns.

Mayfield hasn’t battled a tough defense without all three receivers, however, so it remains to be seen if he can thrive in this sort of situation. The Lions have some major issues in their secondary – Brian Branch’s suspension won’t help – but Detroit has a strong pass rush that could cause problems for a Tampa Bay offensive line missing two starters.

Mayfield will have to do it all on his own, as the Lions sport a top-five run defense. Even if Bucky Irving returns, it’s highly unlikely that the Buccaneers will be able to establish anything on the ground versus Detroit’s stalwart front.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions won’t be able to run either. They base their offense on being able to pound the ball with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, but the Buccaneers simply don’t allow opposing running backs to gain even 50 yards on the ground. Gibbs and Montgomery won’t be able to find many running lanes.

Jared Goff, like Mayfield, will need to do more in this game. The problem with that is Tampa Bay’s pass rush, which has greatly improved this year. The Buccaneers have an excellent 135 pressures through six games, which is among the league’s best figures.

Goff wouldn’t have such issues with this pass rush last year, but with Taylor Decker injured, and Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler gone this past offseason, he could be under siege often. Luckily for Goff, he’ll be able to release the ball quickly and connect with his many talented weapons. Decker returning would allow Goff to have more time in the pocket to find these weapons downfield.

RECAP: I’d like to take the Buccaneers completely seriously, but I just can’t. They’re 5-1, but they haven’t battled a team better than Group C this year, save for the Eagles. And that game was a blowout until Lane Johnson got hurt in the second half, allowing Mayfield to mount a comeback which he couldn’t quite complete.

The Lions are certainly above Group C, and yet this line is only -5.5. If Detroit is Group A – and it certainly has looked like it belongs in that group if Week 1 is excluded – then this line should be -7.5 at least.

I could maybe buy into the Buccaneers because of their run defense if they were healthy, but if Mayfield continues to be down all of his receivers, he will struggle to beat a superior opponent. Sure, he defeated the 49ers, but that San Francisco team was ravaged by injuries, including one to Fred Warner during the course of the game. The Lions have issues in the secondary and left tackle – assuming Decker is out again – but are getting healthier elsewhere, so I love the -5.5 in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Mike Evans may play, but only out of necessity because all of the other receivers are sidelined. Things may not end well for Evans in his attempt to return early from a soft-tissue injury.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’ll see what the injury report says on Saturday evening, but the Buccaneers didn’t see Lavonte David practice on Thursday or Friday, and Mike Evans was DNP on Friday. Conversely, the Lions had Taylor Decker practice on a limited basis on Thursday and Friday. Kerby Joseph hasn’t practiced yet, but Terrion Arnold at least returned to practice on Friday. Alim McNeill also practiced fully on both days.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Buccaneers will have Mike Evans and Lavonte David, and there’s a chance Emeka Egbuka will play. The Lions, meanwhile, won’t have their top three cornerbacks and their two safeties. Despite this, the sharps have bet the Lions up from -5.5 to -6.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a parlay boost. We’re going to use Baker Mayfield over 19.5 rushing yards, Rachaad White under 50.5 rushing yards, and Sam LaPorta over 4.5 receptions. This $25 parlay pays $191.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t believe Emeka Egbuka is active. That’s insane. There’s no guarantee he’s 100 percent though, and that also applies to Mike Evans. At any rate, the sharps are on the Lions, or at least they were at -5.5. All of the -5.5 lines are gone, so the best number is -6 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Lions are coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -4.5.

Computer Model: Lions -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

The Buccaneers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 68% (166,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 147-101 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Lions -4.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Seattle, home of stupid people who drink coffee, which Mother says is the devil, and if you drink it, you’ll have seven years of bad luck. Same bad luck you get when you see a girl naked! Tonight, the Houston Rockets take on the Seattle Seabirdpoops. Guys, last week I made a great joke by calling the Redskins the Foreskins. Now, I’m calling the Seattle Seagulls the Seabirdpoops, which is a great nickname.

Emmitt: Thanks, Nick. I think it a real coincidencidenciness that your name Nick and you always coming up with nickname, which probably only thing that people name Nick can comed up with.

Reilly: Emmitt, you know, it’s very hurtful that we’ve been working togther for 15 years now, and yet you keep calling me by the wrong name. You called me Korean names for an entire year! Can you please start calling me by my real name before I get Mother to make a complain to HR about you?

Tollefson: Reilly, get over yourself. Who cares if someone calls you by your correct name? I always call my kidnapped slave women by their wrong name when I address them as they’re chained in my cellar. For example, if there’s a girl named Sandy, I’ll call her either Cindy or Mindy. All these kidnapped slave women do is continue to cry, which is very selfish of them. You’d think they’d thank me for acknowledging them, but they never do. The nerve!

Reilly: Tolly, Mother says that women are the devil, so if that’s true – and Mother has never been wrong about anything – then that would explain why they are being so rude to you. What do you think about this? Why are women being so ungrateful to Tolly?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Sandy. I heard someone say something about grates. I have breaking news tonight that Marshawn Lynch has signed a new advertising contract to promote grates. Marshawn is set to make $8 million from this new deal. Back to you, guys.

Reilly: Wait a second. People actually make money from advertising for companies? When did this happen!? I got an ad contract from a local Philadelphia Mazda dealership because I’m such a great announcer, and they’ve been paying me in Nick Foles bobbleheads. If I were paid in millions, I could buy even more Nick Foles bobbleheads! Mina Klein, you look like you want to say something.

Mina Kimes: I think this is yet another instance of me being oppressed because I’m an Asian female analyst. Why has no one ever made a bobblehead of me? Doesn’t everyone know that I’m a great Asian female NFL analyst? I’ve said gems on this very pregame show like Geno Smith is a top-one NFL quarterback. Who could possibly give you NFL analysis like that? If everyone appreciated me, I’d have the No. 1-selling bobblehead, but of course, I don’t because I’m oppressed and don’t have my own bobblehead because everyone hates Asian female NFL analysts who are the only people who can tell you how great Geno Smith is.

Reilly: Do you really think Geno Smith is a top quarterback in the NFL? Do you think your bias as a Seahawks fan might be showing? Not that I’d know anything about fandom bias because I’m not biased at all about my Philadelphia Eagles.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! ARE YOU QUESTIONING THE GREAT ANALYSIS OF MY ASIAN FEMALE FOOTBALL ANALYST FRIEND!? NO ONE CAN DARE QUESTION THE WISDOM OF AN ASIAN FEMALE NFL ANALYST, AND NO ONE CAN QUESTION ME, A FEMALE SPORTS ANALYST, BECAUSE ALL YOU’RE DOING IS OPPRESSING US, REEEEEEE!!!

Reilly: Guys, I don’t mean to interrupt your ranting, but we have another letter from a transfan.

Olivebranch: My name is Olivebranch, and I was born a Ravens fan and then when I had jersey surgery, I became a Jaguars fan. I need to say that it’s very offensive that the Nick Reilly guy said that people can’t be trans fans. What am I, invisible to you? If Nick Reilly doesn’t apologize, I will steal my dad’s war hammer and begin bashing innocent nursing home patients in the head just to prove that I’m a good person who happens to be oppressed like the female football analysts you have on your broadcast! Apologize, Nick Reilly, or the old people will meet their fate.

Reilly: Joke’s on you because I don’t care about old people, except Mother, and she’s not in a nursing home! Besides, I have New Daddy to protect her, and me. Right, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Nah, if one of these psychos comes for you, I’m out.

Reilly: I know you’re joking, New Daddy!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about jokes, Kevin. Let’s discuss different types of jokes, Kevin. We can begin with knock-knock jokes, Kevin. What about a play on words, Kevin? Let’s not forget racist jokes, Kevin. Let’s transition to political jokes, Kevin. Don’t forget about bar jokes, Kevin. How about some dark humour jokes, Kevin. An obvious one is a dad joke, Kevin. Why not touch on blonde jokes, Kevin? Not that you’d ever touch a blonde, Kevin. And, of course, there’s the biggest joke of all, Kevin, which is Kevin, Kevin.

Reilly: Yeah, right! You’re the biggest joke, Charles Davis, because Mother is a blonde, and I’ve touched her!Aand if you’re not careful, I’m going to get that war hammer and come after you! We’ll be back right after this!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans have struggled so much on offense this season that it was shocking to see them score so often against the Ravens. That’s how bad Baltimore’s defense has been – it couldn’t even stop a Houston offense that has barely been functional as a result of horrendous offensive line play.

Things should get back to normal in this game. The Seahawks have the No. 9 defense in the NFL. Their pass rush is terrific. They’ll be able to hound C.J. Stroud and force him into some mistakes. If Stroud were protected well, he’d be able to expose some injuries in Seattle’s secondary, but I don’t believe he’ll have enough support from his offensive line.

The Seahawks will really be able to get after Stroud because there won’t be any sort of Houston rushing attack. The Texans foolishly went back to Nick Chubb after Woody Marks’ explosion against Tennessee. Chubb is decrepit and won’t have a chance against Seattle’s No. 5 rush defense.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Seahawks are ninth in defense, the Texans are 10th. They’re similarly talented on the defensive side of the ball, so those numbers indicate that this should be a low-scoring affair.

I don’t think that will be the outcome, however. While the Texans are terrific against the pass, they’re not nearly as strong versus the run. They’re a weak 21st against the run, which doesn’t bode well against the Seahawks. Seattle wants to pound the ball so much that the previous offensive coordinator was fired for not running enough. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet should be able to generate ample rushing yardage to give Sam Darnold a chance versus Houston’s fierce pass rush.

Darnold, by the way, has been the subject of some MVP chatter. I find this to be absurd because I’d say Jaxon Smith-Njigba is more valuable than Darnold, but we’ll find out what the duo can do against Houston’s elite pass defense.

RECAP: I really like the Seahawks in this matchup. I believe them to be markedly better than the Texans, yet the spread doesn’t reflect that. The Texans are very flawed in that they can’t block at all. They also have a one-dimensional offense, which shouldn’t be too difficult for Seattle’s defense to diagnose.

Beyond that, the Seahawks have an immense home-field advantage in this game. I’m not really referring to Seattle’s stadium. Rather than where, it’s all about the when. This is a 10 p.m. start time, so Circadian rhythms will play a huge role in deciding this contest. This is a very late game for the Texans, while the Seattle body clocks are optimized for this sort of start time.

It’s a very small sample size, but there have been three NFL games featuring teams from the Eastern or Central time zones playing a road game on the West Coast at 10 p.m. or later. None of those three teams covered the spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The good news is that this line is now -3 instead of -3.5. The bad news is that it appears as though sharp action on Houston brought the line down.

SATURDAY NOTES: Unlike the other Monday night game, there doesn’t seem to be any major injury news, though you never know what can happen as the week progresses.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Nothing new on the final injury report. The Seahawks still look great.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Always bet tight ends against the Seahawks. They can’t stop tight ends. The best number for Dalton Schultz is over 38.5 receiving yards -114 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

DraftKings has a 30-percent parlay boost, so we’ll be using Dalton Schultz over 38.5 receiving yards, Kenneth Walker over 49.5 rushing yards, Nick Chubb under 35.5 rushing yards, and Jayden Higgins over 2.5 receptions. This $25 parlay pays $292.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s disappointing to see that the Seahawks won’t have Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love because it looked like both would be able to return to action, but I think the Seahawks will be fine. The sharps haven’t bet this game. The best line is Seahawks -3 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Texans are playing in a very late start time.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -2.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Decent action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 65% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 61-49 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Chance of rain, 52 degrees. Light wind.