2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Saints at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

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Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: One of the many reasons I liked the Patriots over the Saints last week was because New England’s top-10 run defense would be able to clamp down on Alvin Kamara and the other New Orleans runners. Spencer Rattler hadn’t performed well without the assistance of a rushing attack until that point. To his credit, Rattler had a solid game, but he couldn’t lean on Kamara and others either.

The Saints will have much more success on the ground in this contest. The Bears are just 25th against the run, as their weak defensive front has been trampled over all year. They were lucky to get some turnovers from Washington’s opposing back last week, but Kamara and Taysom Hill will do a better job of taking care of the ball.

Rattler will greatly benefit from Chicago’s inability to stop the run. The Bears also struggle to generate pressure on the quarterback, so Rattler will have all the time he needs to locate his threats for big gains.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Like Rattler, Caleb Williams will have whatever he needs to find Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, and all of his other weapons for significant gains. The Saints also struggle to harass opposing quarterbacks, which must be music to Williams’ ears because we know that he likes to hold the ball for an eternity.

To Williams’ credit, he’s been doing a better job of releasing the ball quicker this year. It helps that his offensive line has improved. This offensive line was also instrumental in D’Andre Swift having a big game versus the Redskins on Monday night.

Don’t count on Swift repeating that performance this week, however. The Saints, while woeful against the pass, stuff the run rather well. They’re third versus the rush, so Swift won’t be able to produce much.

RECAP: I’ve been fading the Saints all year. I’ve bet against them on all but two occasions: at Seattle because the Seahawks had a Thursday game coming up, and versus the Giants because New York was coming off a big upset win. Other than that, we’ve made major money going against New Orleans.

We won’t be doing that this week for a couple of reasons. First, this line is inflated. The Bears are not a very good team. They were lucky to beat the Raiders and Redskins, as both teams threw away those games with senseless turnovers. Had the Raiders and Redskins prevailed, and the Bears were 1-4 as a result, what would this spread be? Probably -3, right?

Second, the Bears are coming off an upset win on the road and playing on a short week. This is not a good spot for them.

I can’t bring myself to bet the Saints, but we will be siding with them on a Tuesday for the first time all year.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Bears are coming off an upset win on the road and playing on a short week.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -6.5.

Computer Model: Bears -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Slight lean on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 61% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Opening Line: Bears -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .