NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
2025 NFL Picks: 53-51-1 (-$2,445)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 19, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

Week 6 Analysis: Aside from one game and the props, Week 6 was pretty great. In fact, forget the one game. If it wasn’t for the props, we would’ve had a winning week. Given how horribly we lost on shady circumstances with the Ashton Jeanty prop – I’m convinced Pete Carroll rigged Jeanty’s yardage total – I’m leaning toward moving away from pre-game props unless there’s something absurdly obvious to bet.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Broncos, 3 units (loss): I’m so sick and tired of these f**king international games. We handicapped this game correctly, as Denver dominated the Jets. The Broncos held the Jets to just 1.4 yards per play, and yet they didn’t cover because of mental mistakes. The Troy Franklin fumble and the kickoff return gave the Jets six free points. Erase those points, and the Broncos cover. Seriously though, why were the Broncos the only team making mental mistakes? Couldn’t the Jets commit a turnover? The worse team is supposed to be the one making errors!

Rams, 5 units (win): We were so close to not only winning this pick, but also hitting the -20.5 alt line for +450. If only the Rams hadn’t screwed up in the red zone on one of their final drives.

Chargers, 5 units (loss): I keep pointing this out, but we keep having these brutal -$1,000 swings every single week decided at the end of games. Last week it was the Cardinals blowing what should have ben a 28-6 lead. This week, the Chargers blew a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter by allowing two touchdowns. Hey, a**holes, next time how about you actually cover Darren Waller in the end zone?

Raiders, 3 units (win): An easy win, despite Geno Smith screwing up.

Packers, 3 units (loss): Had the wrong side here. The Packers are massively overrated. Still, we had a chance at a push, but Green Bay’s fraudulent defense couldn’t stop a decrepit 40-year-old quarterback playing behind a bad offensive line.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Speaking of a decrepit 40-year-old quarterback playing behind a bad offensive line, Joe Flacco’s debut with the Bengals went better than expected. Sure, he scored zero points in the opening half, but I expected him to generate zero points throughout the entire game. The fact that he led two touchdown drives was extremely impressive.

Really, though, we have enough evidence to suspect that the Green Bay defense is a paper tiger. The Packers allowed 40 points to the Cowboys, and following their bye, they had no answer for a simple offense where a decrepit 40-year-old quarterback playing behind a bad offensive line was throwing to the same guy over and over again. The Steelers, who have more pressures through five games than the Packers, will be able to place heavy heat on Flacco. The old man wasn’t forced into a turnover last week, but perhaps that’ll change against Pittsburgh.

The Bengals would love to deploy some sort of rushing attack to keep Pittsburgh’s defense honest, but that’s not going to happen. The Steelers have improved against the run following a bad start, while Chase Brown doesn’t exactly have quality blocking in front of him.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers have their own blocking issues. Their offensive line isn’t nearly as suspect as Cincinnati’s, but Aaron Rodgers is often forced into releasing the ball quickly.

Rodgers may not have any sort of protection issues in this game. The lone positive aspect of Cincinnati’s dreadful defense is Trey Hendrickson, but the Pro Bowl pass rusher suffered an injury against the Packers and may not be available on a short week.

The Bengals are awful in every other defensive aspect. They can’t stop the run, so Jaylen Warren should be able to rebound from last week’s lackluster performance against Cleveland’s dominant front line.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

But will the Steelers be focused? I’m not so sure. We just saw the Eagles lay an egg against the Giants, and the Steelers could do the same thing. I consider Mike Tomlin to be a very good head coach, but he has a horrendous history in these sorts of situations. He’s awful as a road favorite of more than a field goal without any other stipulations, but when you look into how he performs as a road favorite following a victory, it gets even uglier. The Steelers are a hideous 15-31 against the spread as a road favorite coming off a win in the Tomlin era. Also, Pittsburgh battles Green Bay next week. Think Rodgers has at least one eye on that game?

I am not a fan of trends because many of them can be misleading. But do you really want to bet the Steelers and stand in front of that 15-31 ATS train? I’ll pass. But there’s no way I’m betting the Bengals either.

Our Week 7 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Still nothing on this game. It’s almost a relief not to be betting a Thursday night game, which are often terrible. I’m still leaning toward Cincinnar

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Andre Iosivas is the play here because Mike Gesicki is injured. They occupy the same area, so Iosivas should be able to catch multiple passes. The best number is over 1.5 receptions -114 at DraftKings, which offers a $25 no-swet bet. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FanDuel has a 30-percent boost on this game, so we’re going to be a same-game parlay there. It’ll be Iosivas over 1.5 receptions, Tee Higgins over 4.5 receptions, and Kenneth Gainwell over 2.5 receptions. This $25 parlay pays $163.33. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

PROMOS: BetMGM has a no-sweat bet up to $20. We’ll be siding with the Bengals for 0.2 units as a result.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trey Hendrickson is out, as expected. I’d like the Steelers if they were in a better spot, but they usually underwhelm in these situations. The sharps have been betting the Bengals in the hours leading to the game. The best line is +4.5 -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Steelers, coming off a win, play the Packers next week.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

I expected more money on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 52% (260,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Steelers have won 27 of the last 37 meetings.

Steelers are 31-18 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 49 instances.

Mike Tomlin is 9-23 ATS as a favorite after a win of 14+ in the regular season unless a bye is coming up.

Aaron Rodgers is 137-100 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Steelers -4.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 59 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BOYCOTT GAME: I will be boycotting this game, and I urge all of you to do the same. When the NFL had one game in Europe and played it at 1 p.m. Eastern, I was fine with it. Two games began pushing it, and then three games were unacceptable. Now, there are seven European games, and they all begin at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast, which absolutely screws everyone living in that time zone. Football needs to be in America; not Europe. The NFL needs to go back to just one European game. Tell Roger Goodell to f**k off and buy this Make Football American Again t-shirt:

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: We must begin with the Rams when discussing this game because that’s where the major injury happens to be. Puka Nacua suffered an injury against the Ravens while going up for a touchdown. He missed some time and then returned to action, but had to leave the game again. He was referred to as day to day, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be able to suit up for this game.

Luckily for Matthew Stafford, he’ll be battling a Jacksonville defense that will be missing star linebacker Devin Lloyd. And even with Lloyd on the field, the Jaguars have allowed some big passing plays recently. They had no answer for what Sam Darnold was doing this past week, so Davante Adams could be a major force in this contest. Stafford also made good use of Tyler Higbee last week, as the veteran tight end is healthy again. It must be noted that Stafford won’t have much time to throw because the Jaguars can generate a quality pass rush, but Stafford is protected well.

Stafford will need to be on his “A” game because the Jaguars have been decent against the run this year. Jacksonville doesn’t have an impenetrable run defense, or anything, but it’s not like Kyren Williams has been great enough this year to overcome the matchup.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I wrote that Stafford needs to be on his “A” game. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been on his “A” game for most of the year, but he had an excellent second half versus the Chiefs – albeit with some help from Kansas City’s mental errors – and then continued to play well against the Seahawks. Lawrence wasn’t perfect by any means, but he completed several downfield shots. He would’ve had two more, but Travis Hunter was flagged for lining up incorrectly, and then Brian Thomas Jr. committed a brutal drop.

Lawrence may find it difficult to repeat last week’s performance. He was under siege often by the Seahawks, but he’ll face even more pressure from the Rams’ terrific front seven.

Perhaps Lawrence will be able to elude the pass rush by feeding Travis Etienne. The spry back struggled last week, but was faced with an extremely difficult matchup versus Seattle’s run defense. The Rams were ranked highly against the run to start the year, but they’ve shown cracks in their ground defense recently.

RECAP: My rule for international games is the same one as the one I have for Thursday games: Back the superior team as long as they’re focused. The reason for this is that the inferior team won’t have the adequate preparation time it needs to overcome a difficult opponent.

I believe the Rams to be the superior team in this matchup, but I’m not sure if Nacua’s injury changes that. Nacua is a special player, so the Rams are obviously worse offensively without him.

There’s also the matter of the Rams playing a 6:30 a.m. Pacific time game. It’s absolutely ridiculous that the Rams have to play in these circumstances, though it’s not surprising because Roger Goodell is such a globalist pig. If there’s anyone who can overcome these circumstances, it’s Sean McVay, who is an excellent coach with a long history of success in early games. McVay is 11-6 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast contests, and really should be 12-5 because of how the Eagles game ended in Week 3. Playing at 10 a.m. and 6 a.m. is much different, however, so I’m not completely confident that the Rams can perform up to their abilities, especially without Nacua.

I’m still going to side with the Rams because I’m not a believer in the Jaguars, but I won’t be betting on this latest international garbage.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m more relieved to not bet the international games. I can’t wait for this trash to come to an end. Hopefully Roger Goodell’s tenure as commissioner comes to an end as well because these international games have been a colossal flop.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no unexpected injuries. Puka Nacua and Rob Havenstein will miss this game for the Rams, while the Jaguars won’t have Devin Lloyd. I’m still leaning toward the Rams. If I were betting the Rams, I’d be glad to see that the public is backing the underdog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, so perhaps they’re sick of the international nonsense as well. The best line is Rams -3 -114 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.5.

Computer Model: Rams -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 63% (166,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Jaguars are 68-114 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 23-55 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 58 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 4-17 heading into Week 5.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions +2.5

Eagles -7.5

Cowboys -3

Rams -7.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. Another week, another public slaughter. No one is going to have money for Christmas presents for the next few years.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Colts +1.5

Giants +7

Buccaneers +4.5

Seahawks -3.5

The public isn’t winning with favorites, so I guess they’re trying underdogs now.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I often begin with a specific team in my pick capsules because they have some sort of injured player whose absence will adversely affect his team. The Chiefs have the opposite dynamic this week, as Rashee Rice is finally returning from his six-game suspension. Rice is an excellent player who will have a huge impact, though it must be noted that we don’t know if he’s fully in shape.

Still, Rice’s presence can’t hurt, and it’s not like the Chiefs have been struggling offensively recently. They had a slow start, but became more productive once Xavier Worthy returned to action and the offensive line improved. All of this is bad news for the Raiders, who have a dreadful defense. Despite Maxx Crosby’s presence, the Raiders don’t put much pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so Patrick Mahomes will have all the time he needs to find his weapons against the Raiders’ poor secondary.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: While the Chiefs’ blocking has improved, the opposite can be said of the Raiders. Las Vegas’ offensive line was a problem area the entire season, but at least the team had Kolton Miller to begin the year. Miller is now sidelined, so the Raiders have one of the worst blocking units in the NFL.

The Chiefs have a quality pass rush, so pressuring Geno Smith won’t be much of an issue. Smith has been a turnover machine, so it would be shocking if he didn’t commit some mistakes against Kansas City’s defense.

It would be helpful for Smith if he could lean on Ashton Jeanty, but that doesn’t seem likely. Jeanty has poor blocking in front of him, while Kansas City’s run defense is rather stout. The Chiefs just limited the Detroit duo to 89 total rushing yards, so clamping down on Jeanty should be rather easy.

RECAP: If this were last year, the Raiders would be in a smash spot. Despite their issues, they would likely cover against the Chiefs, who were a colossal money pit as a big favorite in 2024. The Chiefs did the bare minimum to win games, so they would hardly ever cover big spreads. And it’s not like their offense was dynamic enough to do so.

The Chiefs are now much better than they were last year, thanks to the improved offensive line, implementation of Worthy, and the return of Rice. I believe they’re now capable of covering big spreads, but if I were to bet this game, I still would be concerned that we wouldn’t see them at their best as such a huge favorite, especially following a win over a top opponent like Detroit.

I’m going to side with the Chiefs because the Raiders are so miserable, but I’m not going to bet this game. This has “Chiefs by 7-10” written all over it, though it’s possible that I could be wrong and that Kansas City could just go on a tear.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brock Bowers did not practice on Wednesday, which is hardly a surprise. This Raiders team is a mess, so I think laying points with the Chiefs is the right way to go.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Raiders’ offense might be even worse than we expected. Brock Bowers is doubtful, as we thought, but Jakobi Meyers may not play after being DNP-DNP-limited throughout the week. The only injury designation for the Chiefs is Josh Simmons being ruled out, but Jaylon Moore played well as a replacement last week. I’m still leaning toward the Chiefs, but can’t bet them at this number.

PLAYER PROPS: I’ve been waiting to bet Travis Kelce under receiving yards. Rashee Rice’s return means that Kelce won’t be doing as much over the middle of the field, so his production will drop. The best number is under 37.5 receiving yards +105 at BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t know why there was a delay with releasing the Chiefs inactives list, but it was a nothing burger. The Raiders actually have the news, and that would be Jakobi Meyers’ absence. There’s actually a bit of sharp action coming in on the Chiefs, believe it or not. The best line is a standard -12.5 -110 you can find at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Chiefs just beat the Lions on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -10.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 53% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Chiefs have won 18 of the last 21 meetings.

Raiders are 20-13 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Raiders are 38-58 ATS after a win since 2009.

Patrick Mahomes is 103-28 SU, 69-60 ATS (54-46 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -10.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny, 65 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s a reply to a live prop:

A Detroit running back went way over 16.5 receiving yards. Unfortunately, I picked the wrong one. Oh well. Let’s hope DmoneyzPickZ recovers from his hurt feelings.

This is from a reply posted to someone being gleeful that P0rn Hub was banned in 19 states, or something:

I hate authoritarian garbage from the right almost as much as I do from the left. At least I can talk to people on the right, as pious as some of them may be. People on the left are imbeciles who are so brainwashed that they believe people can successfully change their gender. Sorry to break it to you bozos, but they’re not trans; they’re eunuchs.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: If you were to ask casual bettors and common fans how this game would go, you’d probably get a prediction of like 16-13, or even 6-3, because both teams have dreadful offenses. The Dolphins lost Tyreek Hill and can’t block, while the Browns have Dillon Gabriel. How can the Browns possibly score with Gabriel?

The Steelers just clamped down on Gabriel, limiting him to just nine points. However, there’s a huge difference between Pittsburgh’s defense and Miami’s defense. The Dolphins can’t stop anything. They get no pressure on the quarterback, so Gabriel will have plenty of time to locate his tight ends as he dinks and dunks down the field.

Gabriel may not need to do much, anyway. That’s because Quinshon Judkins is in the same backfield. Judkins has been highly impressive thus far and projects to have an amazing game. Two weeks ago, the Dolphins surrendered 206 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle. Last week, Kimani Vidal ran all over them. Judkins is far better than Dowdle and Vidal, so he could also threaten 200 rushing yards.

MIAMI OFFENSE: As mentioned earlier, the Dolphins can’t block. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. This does bode well for them in this matchup against Cleveland’s stalwart front.

Tua Tagovailoa will constantly be under siege by Myles Garrett and company. Tagovailoa has played poorly in most games this year, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he once again had a dreadful performance.

The Dolphins’ only hope of moving the chains is via De’Von Achane, though Achane may have to do that as a receiver out of the backfield. Cleveland is No. 6 against the run, so Achane won’t get much on the ground.

RECAP: If you analyze the four units in this game – Browns offense and defense, Dolphins offense and defense – the best unit is Cleveland’s defense, and it’s not even close. And while some may consider Cleveland’s defense to be the worst of the four, I would disagree and point to all the mediocre running backs who have trampled the Dolphins lately. Cleveland’s offense at least has some talented players like Judkins and David Njoku, plus a quality interior offensive line.

This is an easy play on the Browns. Miami +2.5 is attracting square public bettors, which is music to my ears because we’re betting on the team with the far superior defense, offensive line, and running game. If you go position by position, the only place the Dolphins are definitively better is at quarterback, and it’s not like their quarterback is even playing well.

There might be some fear in betting the Browns, but consider that they outgained the Bengals in Week 1 and Ravens in Week 2. They upset the Packers in Week 3. And they nearly defeated the Vikings in London. They also hung tight against the Steelers before that game got away from them.

Also, don’t forget that Tagovailoa threw his teammates under the bus in a post-game interview last week. I don’t know if that’ll adversely affect the Dolphins, but it easily could. The Miami linemen may not feel too bad if they allow an unblocked pass rusher to come through and hit their quarterback.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Public money continues to pour in on the Dolphins. I should know better, but this almost seems too easy.

SATURDAY NOTES: David Njoku has been ruled out, but that’s fine because the Browns still have Harold Fanin. Jack Conklin could also be sidelined, but the Dolphins don’t have much of a pass rush. One other thing of note is that there’s allegedly going to be rain and heavy winds. That’s not guaranteed because it’s difficult to predict the weather, but if the conditions are horrible, that will certainly benefit the Browns because of their superior running game and defense.

LOCKED IN: I’m going to lock in the Browns -2.5 -115 now because I think there’s a good chance this goes to -3 by Sunday morning. I’m also increasing the unit count to five. Of the five units, 0.35 will be from bonus bets claimed from last week. The best line is -2.5 -115 at many places, including FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It turns out that locking in -2.5 -115 was a mistake. The line didn’t move to -3, and we can actually get -2.5 -107 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t come in on Cleveland, or Miami for that matter. The one piece of injury news here is that Jack Conklin won’t play, but Cleveland missing an oft-injured right tackle doesn’t matter very much in this game because Miami doesn’t have much of a pass rush.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

Tua Tagovailoa threw his teammates under the bus.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -2.5.

Computer Model: Browns -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

The Dolphins are publicly backed underdogs.

Percentage of money on Miami: 70% (122,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Kevin Stefanski is 14-23 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Browns -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Rain, 64 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 17 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I loved Drake Maye heading into this year. He was my No. 1 drafted quarterback in best ball, and he’s my quarterback on two of my three fantasy teams. Despite this, I didn’t see him becoming such a prolific passer so quickly. I’m sure you’ve all seen the stat: Maye became just the fourth quarterback under 24 to ever have five consecutive games of 200-plus yards and a 100-plus QB rating. The other three were Patrick Mahomes, Dan Marino, and Dak Prescott. And sure, that seems like data mining, but it shouldn’t take away from the fact that Maye has been incredibly impressive.

Maye could extend that streak to six games, given the easy matchup. The Titans have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, while their secondary is rather woeful outside of Roger McCreary and Xavier Woods. Maye shouldn’t have any sort of issue dissecting Tennessee, and I’m sure he’ll pick up yardage on the ground when necessary.

Speaking of ground yardage, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson figure to perform well in this game. The Titans are just 19th against the run. Hopefully it’s more Henderson than Stevenson, as this has been about the only thing Mike Vrabel has gotten wrong this year.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Vrabel has done a great job of improving the defense over the garbage we saw from the Patriots last year. This doesn’t bode well for Cam Ward, who has struggled thus far, likely as a result of some dreadful coaching.

We’ll get to the coaching in a bit, but I can’t see Ward having a good game. The Patriots do a decent job of getting to the quarterback, and Ward has taken more sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL. Making matters worse for Ward, he may not have Calvin Ridley, who suffered a hamstring injury last week.

Don’t expect much from Tennessee’s ground game either. The Patriots are seventh against the run, so they shouldn’t have a problem clamping down on Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears.

RECAP: Brian Callahan was fired. I was hoping to see Vrabel come into Tennessee and embarrass the organization that unjustly fired him by coaching circles around the man who replaced him, but we unfortunately won’t see that.

Still, this is obviously a big game for Vrabel. He undoubtedly circled this game on the calendar when the schedule was released. I imagine he’ll put 110 percent into this game plan, so I expect him to embarrass his former organization regardless.

As for the Tennessee coaching situation, teams were 1-2 against the spread after firing their head coach last year. The Saints covered against a reeling Falcons team. The Jets managed to keep their game close against the Bills. Conversely, the Bears were destroyed at San Francisco.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not only is this revenge for Mike Vrabel; it’s also revenge for Harold Landry. However, Landry didn’t practice on Wednesday, so this is a situation to monitor.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Patriots have two important questionable players, one on each side of the ball. Stefon Diggs was limited on Wednesday and Thursday, while Harold Landry was DNP on both Wednesday and Thursday. Both, however, practiced fully on Friday, so that’s obviously great news. The Titans may also have good news with T’Vondre Sweat possibly returning, but he may have to wait one more week. Sweat was limited every day, so given that he’s been out for a while, he may not be 100 percent if he even plays. The Titans won’t have Calvin Ridley, which hurts their chances of a potential back-door cover.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is the first final thought I’m posting first because of a unit change. There’s going to be very heavy winds in Tennessee, which will make it difficult to throw downfield. This obviously hurts the Patriots more than the Titans. The sharps, as a result, came in on Tennessee this morning. I’m going to drop this pick to three units. The best line is -6.5 +101 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.

Mike Vrabel versus his former team.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.

Computer Model: Patriots -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Plenty of action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 81% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Patriots -6.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Likely thunderstorms, 66 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: One of the many reasons I liked the Patriots over the Saints last week was because New England’s top-10 run defense would be able to clamp down on Alvin Kamara and the other New Orleans runners. Spencer Rattler hadn’t performed well without the assistance of a rushing attack until that point. To his credit, Rattler had a solid game, but he couldn’t lean on Kamara and others either.

The Saints will have much more success on the ground in this contest. The Bears are just 25th against the run, as their weak defensive front has been trampled over all year. They were lucky to get some turnovers from Washington’s opposing back last week, but Kamara and Taysom Hill will do a better job of taking care of the ball.

Rattler will greatly benefit from Chicago’s inability to stop the run. The Bears also struggle to generate pressure on the quarterback, so Rattler will have all the time he needs to locate his threats for big gains.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Like Rattler, Caleb Williams will have whatever he needs to find Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, and all of his other weapons for significant gains. The Saints also struggle to harass opposing quarterbacks, which must be music to Williams’ ears because we know that he likes to hold the ball for an eternity.

To Williams’ credit, he’s been doing a better job of releasing the ball quicker this year. It helps that his offensive line has improved. This offensive line was also instrumental in D’Andre Swift having a big game versus the Redskins on Monday night.

Don’t count on Swift repeating that performance this week, however. The Saints, while woeful against the pass, stuff the run rather well. They’re third versus the rush, so Swift won’t be able to produce much.

RECAP: I’ve been fading the Saints all year. I’ve bet against them on all but two occasions: at Seattle because the Seahawks had a Thursday game coming up, and versus the Giants because New York was coming off a big upset win. Other than that, we’ve made major money going against New Orleans.

We won’t be doing that this week for a couple of reasons. First, this line is inflated. The Bears are not a very good team. They were lucky to beat the Raiders and Redskins, as both teams threw away those games with senseless turnovers. Had the Raiders and Redskins prevailed, and the Bears were 1-4 as a result, what would this spread be? Probably -3, right?

Second, the Bears are coming off an upset win on the road and playing on a short week. This is not a good spot for them.

I can’t bring myself to bet the Saints, but we will be siding with them on a Tuesday for the first time all year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bears may not have D.J. Moore, who is considered day to day. This would have been a bigger deal a year ago, but Moore is no longer the No. 1 receiver on this team.

SATURDAY NOTES: There aren’t any major injuries in this game, outside of the players already on injured reserve. I’m still leaning toward the Saints, but don’t plan on betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Saints, likely because Chicago is in such a difficult spot. The best line on this game is Saints +4 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Bears are coming off an upset win on the road and playing on a short week.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -6.5.

Computer Model: Bears -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 55% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 54 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles had a pathetic performance on Thursday night, to say the least. They could barely move the ball against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Jalen Hurts looked like he was playing in slow motion, as he inexplicably ran just one time in the second half. Philadelphia mailed in that game entirely.

We’ll see a better effort from the Eagles following two consecutive losses. Their mini-bye will be crucial, as it’ll allow a key player to return from both the offensive and defensive lines. Landon Dickerson’s absence was felt versus the Giants, so his potential return will be needed against a Minnesota defense that has logged 97 pressures through five weeks.

Dickerson’s presence will be vital in the running game. Saquon Barkley has a great matchup against a Minnesota run-funnel defense that couldn’t contain Kenneth Gainwell two weeks ago. Eagles fans will be hoping that their offensive coordinator doesn’t forget to utilize Barkley like he did in the Denver loss.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It’s unclear at this time if the Vikings will go back to J.J. McCarthy or stick with Carson Wentz. While Wentz hasn’t been great, he’s been good enough to accumulate some wins, and he’s certainly been better than McCarthy.

Whether it’s Wentz or McCarthy, the Minnesota quarterback will be hoping for two things. The first is the return of several injured offensive linemen who weren’t able to play versus the Browns in a near-loss in London. The second is Jalen Carter’s injury designation. Carter was a late scratch against the Giants, and his absence was felt, just like it was versus the Cowboys in the opener when he spit at Dak Prescott. If Carter returns and battles a Vikings offensive line missing several starters, the Eagles will have a huge edge.

One advantage the Vikings will have on this side of the ball is their receivers battling Philadelphia’s secondary. The Eagles have a couple of injuries in the defensive backfield, so containing Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison will be problematic. This is why the status of Carter and the Minnesota offensive linemen is so vital.

RECAP: We’ll have to wait on the status of the aforementioned players to make a definitive pick, but I’m inclined to side with the Eagles. The advance line was Philadelphia -3, and yet the line has dropped because of an overreaction to a game in which the Eagles didn’t try hard. Philadelphia has lost two in a row, so we’ll see much more effort this week.

Of course, it must be noted that the Eagles aren’t as good as they were last year, so there’s still a spread tax on them of sorts. Had they rightfully lost ATS versus the Rams, they’d be 2-4 against the spread right now, which would match their decline. Now, there’s plenty of room for improvement because there’s so much talent on the roster, so there’s a chance the Eagles will be a terror in the second half of the season like they were in 2024. We just need to see some proof of that first.

I’m going to list the Eagles for no units right now, but I’ll adjust based on the injury report. If the Vikings are missing half of their offensive line again, Philadelphia will probably have an easy cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: All of the injury reports look positive. Jalen Carter and the injured Minnesota linemen all practiced Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping for clarity from the final injury report, and we have some. What we know is that Andrew Van Ginkel will be out again. However, the Vikings may get a defensive boost with Blake Cashman possibly returning from IR. Elsewhere, we don’t really know. Brian O’Neill is questionable after being limited all week. The same applies to Jalen Carter. We’ll have to wait until Sunday morning for our answers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We were awaiting the status of both Jalen Carter and Brian O’Neill. Both are active. One interesting thing is that A.J. Dillon is a healthy scratch, as the Eagles finally realized how terrible he is. The sharps have not played this game. The best line is -1.5 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles have lost two in a row.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.

Computer Model: Vikings -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Decent lean on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Jalen Hurts is 10-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Eagles are 8-19 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.

Nick Sirianni is 3-6 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Vikings are 50-39 ATS at home since 2014 (19-24 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: As Evan Daniel put it, the Jets players gave up on the coaches in Week 5, and the Jets coaches gave up on the players in Week 6. The play-calling was woeful against the Broncos in London. The Jets constantly called runs on first and second downs, giving Justin Fields no chance in third-and-long situations. The result was negative-10 yards passing for Fields, as the Jets generated a laughable 1.4 yards per play. I still can’t believe they covered the spread.

As if things weren’t going poorly enough for Fields, he now won’t have his No. 1 receiver, Garrett Wilson, for a few weeks. It’s unclear where Fields will turn for offensive production, aside from impressive rookie tight end Mason Taylor. Fields will obviously utilize his legs more so than ever, especially with his job potentially being on the line.

Fields would love to lean on Breece Hall, but that may not be possible in this game. Believe it or not, the Panthers are the NFL’s No. 1 run defense since Week 2. Hard to believe, but true! They’ve limited De’Von Achane to 16 rushing yards, Javonte Williams to 29 rushing yards, and James Conner to 34 rushing yards. Assuming this continues, they’ll be able to put the clamps on Hall.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: While the Panthers have shut down opposing rushing attacks, they’ve also been able to trample the opposition as well. Rico Dowdle has been a revelation for the Panthers. He’s rushed for north of 380 yards in the previous two games alone!

There’s no reason to believe that Dowdle will slow down at all. His next opponent is the Jets, who are habitually poor against the run. They’re 14th this year, but both Achane and James Cook had monster games against them.

Bryce Young will continue to need Dowdle’s help because he still can’t see over the line of scrimmage. Also, he won’t be able to target Tetairoa McMillan frequently as a result of Sauce Gardner’s excellent coverage. It’s a good thing for Young then that Jalen Coker is set to return from injury.

RECAP: This is one of the least-appealing games to bet this week. Why? Let’s run through the possibilities:

If you back the Panthers, you’ll be betting them off a win as a road favorite, with a matchup against Buffalo looming. Who on Earth wants to bet the crappy Panthers as a road favorite in a potential look-ahead situation, even though they are suddenly somehow No. 1 against the run? I certainly do not.

If you side with the Jets, you’re going with quite possibly the NFL’s worst team that just quit versus the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. The Jets also won’t have their only dynamic downfield threat. And while we’re getting line value with the Jets, who were +2.5 on the advance spread, we’re going against sharp money, which seems to be on Carolina.

Gun to my head, I’d take the Panthers. Luckily, we’re not forced to bet every game!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t have a strong take on this game, but Andy likes the Jets, as you can see in this video:

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick, and I may bet this game. The Panthers have a ton of injuries. Their offensive line looks like it could be in shambles. Robert Hunt is already on injured reserve. Damien Lewis missed practice Thursday and Friday. Taylor Moton was limited all week after missing the previous game. Austin Corbett could return to action, but he may not be 100 percent or even available off such a long absence. And if that wasn’t enough, the Panthers are going to be missing Patrick Jones, who is the team’s second-best run stopper on the defensive line. The Jets suck, but they can beat a very banged-up Carolina squad at home.

PLAYER PROPS: Tetairoa McMillan has caught more than four passes on just one occasion since Week 3, and yet this line is 4.5. And that’s not even factoring in Sauce Gardner’s coverage and Jalen Coker’s return! BetMGM has a 20-percent boost up to $50, so we’re going to turn Tetairoa McMillan under 4.5 receptions -130 into -109.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was the potential for the Panthers offensive line to be a disaster, but they’re going to be missing “only” two blockers. Both guards are out, so their center is going to man one of those spots. The Panthers will also be getting back Travelle Wharton and Jalen Coker, while the Jets will be missing Michael Carter. I still want to fade the Panthers off two wins, and so do the sharps, apparently. The pros have taken the Jets to a favorite, but you can still get +1 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Panthers are coming off a win, and they have the Bills next week.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -2.5.

Computer Model: Panthers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Plenty of action on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 66% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Jets -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.