2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Steelers at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

Week 6 Analysis: Aside from one game and the props, Week 6 was pretty great. In fact, forget the one game. If it wasn’t for the props, we would’ve had a winning week. Given how horribly we lost on shady circumstances with the Ashton Jeanty prop – I’m convinced Pete Carroll rigged Jeanty’s yardage total – I’m leaning toward moving away from pre-game props unless there’s something absurdly obvious to bet.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Broncos, 3 units (loss): I’m so sick and tired of these f**king international games. We handicapped this game correctly, as Denver dominated the Jets. The Broncos held the Jets to just 1.4 yards per play, and yet they didn’t cover because of mental mistakes. The Troy Franklin fumble and the kickoff return gave the Jets six free points. Erase those points, and the Broncos cover. Seriously though, why were the Broncos the only team making mental mistakes? Couldn’t the Jets commit a turnover? The worse team is supposed to be the one making errors!

Rams, 5 units (win): We were so close to not only winning this pick, but also hitting the -20.5 alt line for +450. If only the Rams hadn’t screwed up in the red zone on one of their final drives.

Chargers, 5 units (loss): I keep pointing this out, but we keep having these brutal -$1,000 swings every single week decided at the end of games. Last week it was the Cardinals blowing what should have ben a 28-6 lead. This week, the Chargers blew a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter by allowing two touchdowns. Hey, a**holes, next time how about you actually cover Darren Waller in the end zone?

Raiders, 3 units (win): An easy win, despite Geno Smith screwing up.

Packers, 3 units (loss): Had the wrong side here. The Packers are massively overrated. Still, we had a chance at a push, but Green Bay’s fraudulent defense couldn’t stop a decrepit 40-year-old quarterback playing behind a bad offensive line.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Speaking of a decrepit 40-year-old quarterback playing behind a bad offensive line, Joe Flacco’s debut with the Bengals went better than expected. Sure, he scored zero points in the opening half, but I expected him to generate zero points throughout the entire game. The fact that he led two touchdown drives was extremely impressive.

Really, though, we have enough evidence to suspect that the Green Bay defense is a paper tiger. The Packers allowed 40 points to the Cowboys, and following their bye, they had no answer for a simple offense where a decrepit 40-year-old quarterback playing behind a bad offensive line was throwing to the same guy over and over again. The Steelers, who have more pressures through five games than the Packers, will be able to place heavy heat on Flacco. The old man wasn’t forced into a turnover last week, but perhaps that’ll change against Pittsburgh.

The Bengals would love to deploy some sort of rushing attack to keep Pittsburgh’s defense honest, but that’s not going to happen. The Steelers have improved against the run following a bad start, while Chase Brown doesn’t exactly have quality blocking in front of him.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers have their own blocking issues. Their offensive line isn’t nearly as suspect as Cincinnati’s, but Aaron Rodgers is often forced into releasing the ball quickly.

Rodgers may not have any sort of protection issues in this game. The lone positive aspect of Cincinnati’s dreadful defense is Trey Hendrickson, but the Pro Bowl pass rusher suffered an injury against the Packers and may not be available on a short week.

The Bengals are awful in every other defensive aspect. They can’t stop the run, so Jaylen Warren should be able to rebound from last week’s lackluster performance against Cleveland’s dominant front line.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

But will the Steelers be focused? I’m not so sure. We just saw the Eagles lay an egg against the Giants, and the Steelers could do the same thing. I consider Mike Tomlin to be a very good head coach, but he has a horrendous history in these sorts of situations. He’s awful as a road favorite of more than a field goal without any other stipulations, but when you look into how he performs as a road favorite following a victory, it gets even uglier. The Steelers are a hideous 15-31 against the spread as a road favorite coming off a win in the Tomlin era. Also, Pittsburgh battles Green Bay next week. Think Rodgers has at least one eye on that game?

I am not a fan of trends because many of them can be misleading. But do you really want to bet the Steelers and stand in front of that 15-31 ATS train? I’ll pass. But there’s no way I’m betting the Bengals either.

Our Week 7 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Steelers, coming off a win, play the Packers next week.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

I expected more money on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 61% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 27 of the last 37 meetings.

Steelers are 31-18 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 49 instances.

Mike Tomlin is 9-23 ATS as a favorite after a win of 14+ in the regular season unless a bye is coming up.

Aaron Rodgers is 137-100 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Steelers -4.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 59 degrees. Light wind.