2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Raiders at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 4-17 heading into Week 5.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions +2.5

Eagles -7.5

Cowboys -3

Rams -7.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. Another week, another public slaughter. No one is going to have money for Christmas presents for the next few years.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Colts +1.5

Giants +7

Buccaneers +4.5

Seahawks -3.5

The public isn’t winning with favorites, so I guess they’re trying underdogs now.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I often begin with a specific team in my pick capsules because they have some sort of injured player whose absence will adversely affect his team. The Chiefs have the opposite dynamic this week, as Rashee Rice is finally returning from his six-game suspension. Rice is an excellent player who will have a huge impact, though it must be noted that we don’t know if he’s fully in shape.

Still, Rice’s presence can’t hurt, and it’s not like the Chiefs have been struggling offensively recently. They had a slow start, but became more productive once Xavier Worthy returned to action and the offensive line improved. All of this is bad news for the Raiders, who have a dreadful defense. Despite Maxx Crosby’s presence, the Raiders don’t put much pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so Patrick Mahomes will have all the time he needs to find his weapons against the Raiders’ poor secondary.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: While the Chiefs’ blocking has improved, the opposite can be said of the Raiders. Las Vegas’ offensive line was a problem area the entire season, but at least the team had Kolton Miller to begin the year. Miller is now sidelined, so the Raiders have one of the worst blocking units in the NFL.

The Chiefs have a quality pass rush, so pressuring Geno Smith won’t be much of an issue. Smith has been a turnover machine, so it would be shocking if he didn’t commit some mistakes against Kansas City’s defense.

It would be helpful for Smith if he could lean on Ashton Jeanty, but that doesn’t seem likely. Jeanty has poor blocking in front of him, while Kansas City’s run defense is rather stout. The Chiefs just limited the Detroit duo to 89 total rushing yards, so clamping down on Jeanty should be rather easy.

RECAP: If this were last year, the Raiders would be in a smash spot. Despite their issues, they would likely cover against the Chiefs, who were a colossal money pit as a big favorite in 2024. The Chiefs did the bare minimum to win games, so they would hardly ever cover big spreads. And it’s not like their offense was dynamic enough to do so.

The Chiefs are now much better than they were last year, thanks to the improved offensive line, implementation of Worthy, and the return of Rice. I believe they’re now capable of covering big spreads, but if I were to bet this game, I still would be concerned that we wouldn’t see them at their best as such a huge favorite, especially following a win over a top opponent like Detroit.

I’m going to side with the Chiefs because the Raiders are so miserable, but I’m not going to bet this game. This has “Chiefs by 7-10” written all over it, though it’s possible that I could be wrong and that Kansas City could just go on a tear.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Chiefs just beat the Lions on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -10.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 52% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 18 of the last 21 meetings.

Raiders are 20-13 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Raiders are 38-58 ATS after a win since 2009.

Patrick Mahomes is 103-28 SU, 69-60 ATS (54-46 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -10.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .