2024 NFL Picks – Week 8: Cowboys at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: This game is currently difficult to handicap because we have no idea who will be available for the 49ers. San Francisco has suffered a slew of injuries against the Chiefs. The worst one was Brandon Aiyuk’s torn ACL, so we know he won’t be available. Deebo Samuel had fluid in his lungs, while George Kittle had an issue with his ankle. Jauan Jennings was already sidelined.

The 49ers have an easy matchup against the Cowboys if they can have most of their non-Aiyuk weapons available. The Cowboys have no pass rush as a result of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence being injured, so Purdy will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate his threats. Dallas’ secondary also has injuries.

The best way the 49ers will move the ball is via Jordan Mason. Christian McCaffrey is due back after the bye, so Mason will have one final great performance. The Cowboys have one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL, so they won’t be able to contain Mason.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The defensive issues aren’t the only problem the Cowboys have. Their offense has its troubles, too, and San Francisco will almost certainly be able to exploit them.

The 49ers have a quality pass rush led by Nick Bosa. The Cowboys’ offensive line can’t pass protect like it did last year, given that rookie Tyler Guyton has been a human turnstile. Bosa has a very easy matchup here to rattle Dak Prescott, who won’t be able to lean on his ground attack because the 49ers also shut down the run well.

Prescott, of course, will try to connect with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, but the 49ers thrive against slot receivers and tight ends. They are weaker to No. 2 receivers and pass-catching running backs. This means Jalen Tolbert and Rico Dowdle will have to play at their best for Dallas to have a chance at an upset.

RECAP: I’m going to be on the 49ers, but the unit count will depend on how many of their play-makers are available. We already know that McCaffrey and Aiyuk won’t be able to play. Samuel got knocked out of last week’s game because of fluid in his lungs, so we’ll see if he’s available. Kittle and Jennings may not be ready to return either.

If most of these hobbled players are cleared to play, I’ll bet heavily on the 49ers. They’re going to be in a great spot off a blowout loss to the Chiefs, and they’ll be taking on a team they routinely dominate. The Cowboys are not a good team at all; in fact, they’re close to being a bottom-10 team in net adjusted EPA. They most recently were demolished against the Lions, and the 49ers could treat them similarly.

Conversely, if the 49ers are missing most of Purdy’s weaponry, I probably won’t bet this game. Backing the Cowboys won’t be very appealing, but laying -4.5 with an injury-ravaged San Francisco team won’t seem great either.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been all over the Cowboys. It’s easy to see why. Deebo samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings were all out of Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Micah Parsons said he’d play, but he’s been ruled out. That surely deflates some hope from the sharps who were on Dallas. The 49ers, meanwhile, have some injury question marks. Jauan Jennings is out, but both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are questionable after being DNP-limited-limited during the week. We’ll have to wait until 90 minutes prior to kickoff to know who’s playing.

PLAYER PROPS: Sorry, but there won’t be a same-game parlay for this matchup because there are so many injury question marks. We’ll know who will play by 7 p.m., but we won’t know if they will be 100 percent. I do like the Anders Carlson over 1.5 field goals because the 49ers have one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL. The best number is 1.5 field goals made -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The sharps were on Dallas earlier in the week, but some pro money has come back in on San Francisco recently.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We were wondering if the 49ers skill players would play, and they both will. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel will be in action. In an odd turn of events, the Cowboys will be missing a skill player of theirs with Rico Dowdle ruled out due to a sudden illness. The sharps have been on both sides. I’m going to bet the 49ers for two units. The best line is -5.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The 49ers are coming off a blowout loss to the Chiefs.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: TBA.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 55% (163,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Mike McCarthy is 13-3 ATS off a bye.

49ers are 43-32 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.