NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2025 – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

Week 10 Analysis: We had an awesome Sunday afternoon, thanks to a win in our October NFL Pick of the Month with the Lions covering easily over the Redskins. As a bonus, we also hit our -20.5 +390 alt line.

Of course, not everything was perfect. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Raiders, 4 units (loss): We began the week with an ugly loss. This was one of two bad picks I made last week. For some reason, I completely discounted that the Broncos could be looking ahead to the Chiefs. They did not show up to play against the Raiders, perhaps because of that reason.

Browns, 3 units (loss): I was extremely tilted about this game. We lost a bunch of games last week because of special teams nonsense:

So you can imagine my frustration when the Jets scored on two special-teams touchdowns. I believe the Browns would have won and covered if it wasn’t for those dumb touchdowns.

Seahawks, 3 units (win): The only thing to go wrong here was that I removed a unit from my original selection. Actually, my original selection was three units, but then I added a fourth, only to take the fourth away and go back to three.

Lions, 8 units (win): An easy win, though we needed a late field goal to cover the -20.5.

Rams, 3 units (win): Another easy win. The 4 o’clock window was incredible.

Steelers, 5 units (loss): Unfortunately, our second bad pick of the week. I was right on the money with the Chargers’ blocking issues – though that wasn’t too difficult to predict – but I didn’t factor in how bad Pittsburgh’s offense would look against the Chargers’ sixth-ranked defense.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Although the weather is unpredictable, and many meteorologists lie to stimulate the economy, we may have to begin looking at weather reports regarding Drake Maye. It was clear that Maye was struggling with the wet conditions in Tampa Bay to begin last week’s game. Luckily, the rain disappeared, and Maye went back to dominating, which included a 72-yard bomb to Kyle Williams.

Maye will be able to continue his incredible 2025 season in this very easy matchup. The Jets, who were already poor against the pass early in the season, lost Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter in trade deadline deals, so they’re going to be even worse against aerial attacks moving forward. We didn’t see evidence of that last week because Dillon Gabriel is so talentless that he probably wouldn’t even be a starter in the CFL, but Maye will be able to take advantage of this massive liability.

The Jets will also be worse against the run because of Quinnen Williams’ departure. They were able to play close to the line of scrimmage last week because they weren’t threatened by Gabriel at all. That won’t be possible versus Maye, so we could see TreVeyon Henderson burst for some big gains.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Anyone who just looks at the Jets-Browns score may see a 27 and think that New York’s offense did a solid job of moving the ball against Cleveland. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Fourteen points came on special teams, and the Jets were able to put together only one quality drive on the afternoon.

Justin Fields was terrible against the Browns, and there’s reason to believe that he’ll struggle again. Garrett Wilson got hurt on Sunday, so Fields could be playing without his top receiver once again. This will be against the Patriots, who are fourth in total pressures – check out the NFL Pressure Rankings here – so Fields will constantly be under siege when dropping back to pass.

The Patriots are also ninth when it comes to stopping the run. With Wilson sidelined, the only hope the Jets would have is picking up first downs via Breece Hall receptions and Fields scrambles, but I don’t think we’ll see much of that in this game.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

The Patriots are obviously better than the Jets. They also match up extremely well against them. But Will New England be focused? The Broncos certainly weren’t because they were coming off a win and had to battle the Chiefs the following week. The Patriots are also coming off a signature win against the Buccaneers, but with the Bengals on the horizon, they don’t have much ahead of them. This will also be the first time the Patriots will be battling the Jets this year.

I’m going to continue my hard fade of the Jets by selecting the Patriots for three units. This would be a bigger wager if the Patriots had beaten a lesser opponent last week, but we could also see the Jets struggle following a victory because bad teams tend to fare poorly after wins.

Our Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No surprises on the injury report. I’m going to be betting three units on the Patriots, but I wouldn’t go above that because this is a stupid Thursday night game.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a $20 no-sweat bet. We’re going to use that on Drake Maye over 24.5 rushing yards because the Jets surrender tons of yardage on the ground.

BetRivers has a 50-percent profit boost for anything, up to $25. We’re going to bet on Maye’s rushing yards once again.

BetRivers also has a 25-percent profit boost for the first touchdown scorer, up to $10. We’re going with the favorite, bumping TreVeyon Henderson up from +350 to +488.

We’re going to DraftKings for our same-game parlay because they have a 30-percent profit boost. We’re using Drake Maye over 26.5 rushing yards, Demario Douglas over 24.5 receiving yards, and Breece Hall over 16.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $170.75. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been sharp money on both sides of this game. Early pro action came in on the Patriots to drive the line up to -13, but other sharp money came in on the Jets at +13. The best line is -12.5 -102 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Patriots are coming off a big win in Tampa Bay.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -12.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -10.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -11.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Slight lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 60% (197,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BOYCOTT GAME: I will be boycotting this game, and I urge all of you to do the same. When the NFL had one game in Europe and played it at 1 p.m. Eastern, I was fine with it. Two games began pushing it, and then three games were unacceptable. Now, there are seven European games, and they all begin at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast, which absolutely screws everyone living in that time zone. Football needs to be in America; not Europe. The NFL needs to go back to just one European game. Tell Roger Goodell to f**k off and buy this Make Football American Again t-shirt:

MIAMI OFFENSE: Who would have thought that the main problem with the Dolphins’ offense was just Chris Grier all along? Firing Grier seemingly fixed all of Miami’s problems, as the team was able to generate offense very easily against the Bills.

All kidding aside, the Dolphins put forth a nice showing, but it was obvious that the main catalyst behind this was Buffalo’s severe lack of energy following the victory over the Chiefs. It also doesn’t help that the Bills struggle to defend the middle of the field as a result of injuries to Matt Milano and their defensive tackles. The Redskins are also poor versus the run – they rank 28th against it – and will be even worse because of DaRon Payne’s suspension as a result of his idiotic punch. De’Von Achane shouldn’t have any issues bursting for some big gains.

Tua Tagovailoa will obviously benefit from this, but he, as always, will come with a huge downside. Tagovailoa is inept and isn’t protected well. The Redskins had the pass rush earlier in the year to take advantage of this, but that is no longer the case because of injuries. Still, I don’t trust Tagovailoa to successfully attack a Washington secondary that is ravaged by other injured personnel.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Speaking of incompetent quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota had a rough outing last week. This was predictable because he was set to battle a top-three NFL defense. Mariota had shown some solid flashes earlier in the year, particularly in his victory over the Raiders, but backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top-10 defenses, and last week’s blowout loss was a classic example of that.

Mariota will have a reprieve from the Seahawks and the Lions of the NFL world because he’ll be matched up against the Dolphins and their 26th-ranked defense. It’s possible that Miami will be ranked worse than 26th in a few weeks because they lost Jaelan Phillips, who accounted for 24 percent of their pressures. Miami couldn’t even get to the quarterback consistently with Phillips, so how are they going to do that without him?

Mariota will have much more time to throw in this game, so he’ll be able to connect early and often to Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz. Mariota, conversely, won’t be able to lean on Jacory Croskey-Merritt because Miami is a surprising sixth against the run.

RECAP: My rule for international games is the same as the one I have for Thursday games: Back the superior team as long as they’re focused. The reason for this is that the inferior team won’t have the adequate preparation time it needs to overcome a difficult opponent.

Unfortunately, both of these teams are garbage. They’re both located in Group F of my NFL Power Rankings. Sure, the Dolphins beat the Bills last week, but that was solely because Buffalo was a complete no-show. If anything, that’s a good reason to fade the Dolphins because bad teams tend to perform poorly off a victory, but doing so would require betting the Redskins on an international stage, which I’m not comfortable doing.

Given that both of these teams suck, and it’s not clear how either will perform overseas, this game is a stay-away. Gun to my head, I’d take the Redskins because of the line movement from the advance spread, but I’m nowhere near betting this game, boycott or not.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve considered switching to the Dolphins because of the obvious matchup edge for the Dolphins. De’Von Achane is one of the fastest players in the NFL, while the Redskins have some of the slowest linebackers in the league. Good luck defending him, Washington!

SATURDAY NOTES: I have zero interest in this game. I might have some live bets – remember to follow @walterfootball on X, but I’m just glad that this is the final miserable European exhibition game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in this game, and the sharps haven’t taken a side either. The best line is a standard +2.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Dolphins are a horrible team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Slight lean on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 64% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 13-27 heading into Week 10.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

I can’t say that any of these are very surprising.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Jaxson Dart is so fun to watch, but we may not get to see him play very much if he continues to get hit at a high rate. Dart has now been evaluated for concussions on four occasions, and he hasn’t even played eight games yet. Dart was finally forced out of action last week in what appeared to be a potential upset victory. Russell Wilson came in and ruined things, naturally.

It’s unclear if Dart will pass concussion protocol. Given how the NFL has handled concussions lately, it’s likely that we’ll see Wilson start one more game. If so, the Giants won’t do much scoring. Not only is Wilson decrepit; he also has nothing at his disposal. Dart can at least make things happen with his legs. Wilson used to be able to do that, but that’s no longer the case.

The Giants would have some hope of running the ball if Dart were playing. The Packers are 22nd against the run, after all, and Green Bay would have nightmares trying to figure out whether to defend Dart or Tyrone Tracy. However, with Wilson under center, the Packers will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage because they won’t have to respect Wilson at all.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers will be adversely affected by the loss of Tucker Kraft in most matchups moving forward. This matchup, however, is not one of them.

The Giants have the second-worst run defense in the NFL. The Packers have Josh Jacobs. Thus, all Green Bay has to do is feed the ball to Jacobs. Seems simple, right? You’d think so, but we just watched the Bears throw at a high rate for some reason, even when it was early in the game. Ben Johnson’s strategy made no sense, but perhaps Matt LaFleur will understand to keep things simple.

Jacobs’ great running will create easy throwing opportunities for “No Cookie” Jordan Love. The Packer quarterback didn’t play his best on Monday night, but had to face an elite defense. The Giants, who have injuries in the secondary, won’t put up much resistance.

RECAP: I’ll have to post my official pick later in the week once we know Dart’s status. What I’m going to do is rather straightforward. If Dart plays, I’m going to consider the Giants for a wager. The Packers, coming off a short week, won’t have enough time to create a full game plan for Dart. Teams are 8-16 against the spread coming off Monday Night Football this year, and it’s easy to see why teams are often sub .500 in that regard.

Conversely, if Wilson starts for Dart, we’ll be on the Packers for a moderately sized wager. Green Bay won’t have to do much preparation for one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that’s exactly what the Giants would be with Wilson starting alongside a receiver corps devoid of talent and a defense that can’t stop the run or the pass.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jameis Winston will start this game, so I won’t be betting either side. I was really hoping to fade Russell Wilson, but Winston would give the Giants a real chance to cover this spread, and perhaps even win this game. However, Winston would also give the Giants a possibility of losing in a blowout due to multiple pick-sixes. It’s all part of the Jameis experience!

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve done a lot of thinking about this game, and I’ve come to realize that this should be a big play on the Packers. We had the Lions as our October NFL Pick of the Month because it was the perfect marriage of spot versus matchup. I think you could say the same about this game. The Packers are coming off two consecutive losses, so they’re going to play hard in this game. Meanwhile, they’re going up against a Giants team with a backup quarterback and no downfield receiving threats. Not even Darius Slayton is going to play, so who is Jameis Winston going to throw to versus Green Bay’s 10th-ranked defense? Jalin Hyatt? Isaiah Hodgins? Sure, there’s Wan’Dale Robinson, but he’s an underneath threat. We know Winston wants to bomb it downfield, but he just won’t have any options.

Not only is this going to be a five-unit pick; I’m going to make an alt line bet at -20.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Kayvon Thibodeaux for the Giants. The Packers continue to look better and better, though the sharps haven’t taken a side. This line has risen to -7.5 in some sportsbooks, but Bookmaker (-7 -113) and BetMGM (-7 -115) still have seven-point lines. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

I’m also betting the -20.5 alt line. The best alt line is -20.5 +450 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -7.

Computer Model: Packers -11.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Equal action early, but money has come in on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 73% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s a thread from ESPN DEI hire Pabo Torre:

Talk about “didn’t earn it.” Naturally, I got a response for my reply to Pablo:

I’m sure Mo is a DEI hire for whomever he works for. He also has the mentality of a 12-year-old girl because he blocked me, so I couldn’t even respond to his final reply to me. What a dweeb!

Here’s something from one of our YouTube videos:

I have no idea what this means. What we can understand is Chuckwaggun’s mom took tons of Tylenol – even more so than Mo’s mom.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It wasn’t surprising to see Buffalo’s defense struggle last week. The unit was down several starters, including its top two cornerbacks. The offense, on the other hand, was a big disappointment with some sloppy turnovers.

The Bills should be able to rebound from their defeat, though this matchup isn’t a particularly easy one. The Buccaneers generate the third-most pressures in the NFL, and they also handle mobile quarterbacks rather well. They have some issues in the secondary, however, as we saw last week when Drake Maye exploited some liabilities. Allen should be able to do the same, though it’s worth noting that he may not have the services of Dalton Kincaid, who suffered an injury last week.

I would have ordinarily listed the Buccaneers’ run defense as a strength, but for some reason, Tampa Bay has been much weaker to ground attacks this past month. TreVeyon Henderson’s runs of 69 and 55 yard were not fluky; the Buccaneers are now 17th versus the rush, so James Cook could have a big game.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: As mentioned, the Bills had some serious injuries last week. They were down their top two cornerbacks and two defensive linemen. Furthermore, top linebacker Matt Milano played, but he has really struggled this year because he hasn’t been healthy. The result was the Dolphins doing whatever they pleased against Buffalo.

There’s a good chance the Bills will have some of their injured players back this week. They’ll need one of their cornerbacks to have a good chance of containing Baker Mayfield’s injury-ravaged receiver group. Beyond Emeka Egbuka, there’s just Tez Johnson, and that’s about it, so unless the Bills are down both corners again, they’ll be able to limit Mayfield with the help of their decent pressure rate.

The Bills are much weaker to the run than the pass, but there’s some hope for them in this regard. First of all, the Buccaneers don’t rush the ball all that well with Bucky Irving sidelined. Second, there’s a chance the Bills will be healthier here as well. Milano will snap out of his funk at some point, while DaQuan Jones will be another week removed from his injury.

RECAP: The Bills were in an obvious flat spot last week. Now that they’re coming off a loss, I suspect we’ll see a much better effort from them this week, which should coincide with some of their key players returning from injury. The results speak for themselves, after all. Since his second season, when he took a big leap from his pedestrian rookie campaign, Allen is 14-9 against the spread off a loss. Great quarterbacks tend to bounce back from defeats rather well.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers figure to struggle against another top opponent. They have a nice record at 6-3, but they’ve performed poorly whenever stepping up in class. They were blown out by the Eagles until garbage time, and they also lost to the Lions by double digits. A year ago, they were crushed by the Ravens on Monday Night Football. The Buccaneers have had many chances to defeat these Group A teams, and they’ve failed every time.

The Bills look great this week. The advance spread was -6, and my calculated line is -8.5, yet we’re getting them at -5.5. Provided some of their players return from injury, the Bills will be a multi-unit bet for us.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both of Buffalo’s top two cornerbacks returned to practice Wednesday, albeit on a limited basis. That’s good news for those backing the Bills in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills will be getting back at least one of their cornerbacks, with Christian Benford returning. Taron Johnson, meanwhile, is limited. Shaq Thompson will also play. Buffalo looks good here in a bounce-back spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills won’t have Shaq Thompson after all, but Taron Johnson is back, meaning the Bills go from not having either of their top two cornerbacks versus Miami, to having both cornerbacks available. The sharps have bet the Bills during the weekend. The best line is -6 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are coming off an embarrassing loss.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -6.

Computer Model: Bills -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Slight lean on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 61% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals received some great news in the past couple of days. They learned that Joe Burrow may return sooner than expected, as he’s targeting a Week 13 appearance. If the Bengals win one of their next two games, they’ll be in a position where they can run the table and sneak into the playoffs.

That’s not the only good piece of news that the Bengals received lately. The other occurred during the Sunday night affair against the Chargers. The Steelers lost numerous cornerbacks to injury, which has to be music to the Bengals’ ears. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were already going to provide a tough challenge – as we saw in Cincinnati’s win over Pittsburgh in a Thursday night game – but the Steelers are now going to have to cover those two talented receivers without some of their corners. Good luck!

As if things weren’t bad enough, the Steelers also figure to struggle against the run. That has been a common theme for them this year, given that they rank 21st against the rush. Chase Brown has been much better with Joe Flacco under center, so he should continue to run well.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers actually had a great matchup with their defense against the Chargers last week, yet they lost because Aaron Rodgers kept sailing passes over his receivers’ heads. If Pittsburgh couldn’t beat a team with a great defensive edge, how will they do so when their defense is a major liability?

Obviously, the Steelers will be facing a far worse defense in this game. While the Chargers are sixth in defense, the Bengals are 32nd. Cincinnati is especially poor when it comes to stopping the run. Jaylen Warren figures to have a big performance.

Rodgers, however, will have to make some big plays. He might be able to do so while connecting with his many tight ends, but he can’t rely on getting the ball to DK Metcalf because D.J. Turner has emerged as one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. Also, it sounds like Trey Hendrickson may not play. It’s still early in the week, but the Bengals are at least somewhat functional against the pass when Hendrickson is on the field. His status will determine how successful Rodgers will be in this game.

RECAP: I’m being serious when I say this, but I was considering the Bengals to be my November NFL Pick of the Month prior to hearing the Hendrickson news. If Hendrickson were to play, this line wouldn’t make any sense. The Steelers, with all of their defensive injuries, aren’t much better than the Bengals, who have played at a higher level with Flacco under center and Hendrickson starting on the other side of the ball. I would have made this line Pittsburgh -1.5 if Hendrickson were announced as being likely to play. That’s way off the current listed spread of -5.5!

However, I still love the Bengals if Hendrickson doesn’t play. The Steelers don’t have a good offensive line, so it’s not like I’d trust them to block the Hendrickson-less Bengals anyway. Furthermore, their secondary is a complete mess. They had to move Jalen Ramsey to safety because they didn’t have any healthy safeties, and now they don’t have any healthy cornerbacks. How in the world are they going to cover Chase and Higgins?

This is going to be a five-unit selection. I could see the rested Bengals winning this game outright, but even if they fall behind, they’ll certainly be in a spot where they’ll be able to get a back-door cover with their explosive play-makers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Bengals despite Trey Hendrickson not practicing yet, but Andy Iskoe is on the Steelers. You can listen to his argument during our 4-hour live stream:

SATURDAY NOTES: Not only do the Steelers have injury issues in their secondary; they’re also going to deal with the absence of Alex Highsmith, who is having a solid season. The Bengals will be in a great position to score often against them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping for a +6 line to show up, but we couldn’t get one. The sharps haven’t taken a side on this game. The best line is +5.5 -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -6.

Computer Model: Steelers -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

A bit of action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 61% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: We begin with the Texans because of C.J. Stroud’s uncertain status. Stroud missed last week’s game with a concussion. Players who suffer their first concussion of the year typically miss only one game, but as of Tuesday afternoon, Stroud is still in concussion protocol. There’s a chance we might see Davis Mills again.

Now, this may not be a terribly bad thing because Mills performed well last week. Stuck in a big deficit because of special teams nonsense, Mills engineered a terrific comeback in the fourth quarter. Granted, this came against Jacksonville’s 22nd-ranked defense, but the Titans are even worse with their defense, coming in at 29th. They have the second-fewest pressures in the NFL, which has to be music to either Stroud or Mills’ ears because of how bad Houston’s blocking is.

The Titans also struggle to stop the run. The Texans finally seemed to acknowledge that Woody Marks is the superior running backs, so the explosive rookie could have some big gains this week.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Cam Ward is not concussed, but he played like he was when he battled the Texans the first time earlier in the season. His team scored a grand total of zero points in a pathetic showing.

Nothing has changed from a personnel perspective to make anyone believe that this could be a different result. Ward holds on to the ball too long and takes far too many sacks as a result. This will be devastating against Houston’s elite defensive line. It seems unlikely that Tennessee will get anything going aerially as a result.

The Titans will have better luck moving the chains on the ground, but only by default. The Texans are worse against the run than the pass, but they’re still a solid 10th versus ground attacks.

RECAP: We’ll have to see if Stroud can clear concussion protocol, but that won’t determine my level of interest in Houston. On the contrary, I’d be interested in the Titans if they weren’t so dreadful.

First of all, this is a truly horrid spot for the Texans. Not only are they coming off a huge comeback win against the Jaguars; they have to battle the Bills this upcoming Thursday. And if that wasn’t enough, they also beat this Titans team earlier in the year. This is the same spot the Bills were in last week, and we saw what happened to them.

Second, Stroud coming off a concussion isn’t necessarily a good thing. Quarterbacks tend to struggle off concussions, so I wouldn’t expect him to play at his best, which he would need to do if the Texans were to cover this high number.

Believe it or not, I’m going to side with the Titans, assuming Stroud starts. If it’s Mills, we’ll get a more favorable number, so I’ll have to reconsider this selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve thought about it, and I’m switching to the Texans for two reasons. First, Davis Mills is likely to start, so I think that may invalidate Houston’s potential look-ahead because the players know they’ll have to try hard with their backup quarterback. Second, Tennessee is complete garbage and does nothing well. The Titans are 5-24 against the spread since Week 1 of last year for a reason.

SATURDAY NOTES: I think I’ll be betting two or three units on the Texans. We’re waiting on the status of Jeffery Simmons, and to a lesser extent, Calvin Ridley and Arden Key. Simmons is the big one, though it must be noted that at DNP-limited-limited this week, he didn’t have a full practice this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are some major injury updates here, with the Titans having Jeffery Simmons and Calvin Ridley available. This could be why the sharps have been betting the Titans. I will have no part of this game. If you still like the Texans, the best line is -5.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Texans are coming off a great comeback win. They already beat the Titans, and after this game they have to play on Thursday against the Bills.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -7.5.

Computer Model: Texans -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Slight lean on the Texans early, much more later.

Percentage of money on Houston: 72% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams’ second season began with this matchup on a Monday night. He made some quality throws, but struggled overall. The Bears led during the second half, but the Vikings staged a great comeback in the fourth quarter, and Williams couldn’t do anything about it at the very end to potentially win the game.

Williams will have a chance at redemption, but I don’t like his chances very much. Williams going up against Brian Flores seems like a giant mismatch, especially when Andrew Van Ginkel is on the field. Van Ginkel missed several games, but finally returned a couple of weeks ago. It was no surprise that Minnesota’s defense performed much better with Van Ginkel on the field, putting the clamps on the Lions and limiting the Ravens.

The Vikings have been much better against the run with Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman back in action. This bodes well against the Bears, who need to run the ball well to cover up Williams’ issues.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Van Ginkel and Cashman aren’t the only two prominent Vikings to return from injury lately. Minnesota also welcomed back their two starting tackles, Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. This was incredibly helpful for the offense, given that the line couldn’t block at all when the two tackles were sidelined.

With Darrisaw and O’Neill blocking for him, J.J. McCarthy won’t be touched in this game. The Bears have the worst pressure rate in the NFL, which puts great stress on their injury-ravaged secondary. Having multiple cornerbacks out against Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison is not a bullish outlook.

Speaking of Chicago injuries, T.J. Edwards was sorely missed last week. Edwards is the glue who holds everything together on Chicago’s defense, and whenever he’s missed time, the Bears have seen their ninth-ranked run defense turn into a complete sieve. If he’s out again, Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason will pick up big chunks on the ground.

RECAP: I love the Vikings moving forward in the second half of the season. I didn’t want to bet them last week because I felt the same way about the Ravens. We can now continue our regularly scheduled programming by betting on this underrated Minnesota team that is much healthier than it was in the first month-and-a-half of the season.

Conversely, the Bears seem like a great fade right now. They’re one of the most overrated teams in the NFL at 6-3. They’ve gotten incredibly lucky with turnovers, and they easily could have lost to the Raiders, Redskins, and Giants. The last I checked, none of those teams are very good. Had the Bears fallen to those teams, they’d be 3-6, and I can assure you that this line wouldn’t be +3 in that case.

Not only do we have an overrated versus underrated dynamic; we can also take advantage of a massive, lopsided matchup in this game, which would be Minnesota’s receivers against Chicago’s skeleton-crew secondary. The Vikings, who have taken eight of the previous nine from the Bears, figure to make it 9-of-10 with this huge edge.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No T.J. Edwards in Wednesday’s practice is a good thing. The Vikings should be able to win and cover.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings suddenly have a major injury with Jonathan Greenard ruled out. Greenard is Minnesota’s best edge rusher, so it’s not ideal that he’ll be sidelined. Also, there’s a chance Jaylon Johnson will return for Chicago, though Johnson didn’t have a full practice this week, so he may not be 100 percent even if he returns. Making matters worse for the Bears, they won’t have Edwards this week, and they may not have their top defensive back, Jaquan Brisker, either. Brisker was DNP-DNP-limited this week, so he’s very shaky to play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jaylon Johnson isn’t back yet, but is close to returning. There’s been sharp action on both sides, with the pros betting the Vikings at -2.5 and the Bears at +3. The best line is -2.5 -113 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -2.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Public underdog on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 63% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons won’t face much of an issue exceeding their point total from the first meeting between these teams. That, of course, is because they scored exactly zero points in what was a truly pathetic effort. The Falcons, coming off a national TV victory over the Vikings, were a complete no-show in the Week 3 matchup.

Now 3-6, the Falcons have no choice but to try hard against the Panthers. This means they’ll be able to move the chains aerially against in this matchup. Carolina was ranked highly in pass defense earlier in the season, but that’s not the case anymore. The Panthers have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, which is part of the reason why Tyler Shough was able to have his way with Carolina’s defense. Michael Penix Jr. has been inconsistent this year, but he’ll have plenty of time in the pocket to locate Drake London, who has been hot lately. Kyle Pitts should also have a strong performance because Carolina is weak to tight ends.

The Panthers are at least better versus the run, ranking ninth overall in that regard. This is a big deal against Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but the Falcons should be able to utilize Robinson successfully as a receiver out of the backfield.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers had their own pathetic performance following a big win. They were able to upset Green Bay, but responded with a hideous home defeat against the Saints, losing 17-7.

Bryce Young wasn’t able to do anything against the Saints in what was an easy matchup. This is a much more difficult one. The Falcons have some great talent in the secondary that can limit opposing passing attacks. We saw this occur in the Germany game this past week, as Daniel Jones couldn’t get anything consistent downfield. Jones also saw plenty of pressure and was strip-sacked twice in the red zone.

What we also saw – or at least those who weren’t boycotting the game – was Jonathan Taylor trampling over Atlanta’s poor run defense. While the Falcons are great against opposing aerial attacks, they cannot stop the run, ranking 27th in that regard. The Panthers have a strong run-blocking front that can open up some nice running lanes for Rico Dowdle, who has been excellent since the beginning of October.

RECAP: The Falcons are better than the Panthers despite owning the worse record. They are also seeking revenge for their embarrassing 30-0 loss in Week 3. I would ordinarily have interest in Atlanta to cover the spread, but I just can’t do it.

One of the problems is that the Falcons are in a poor travel spot. They’re flying from Germany back to Atlanta on no rest, which doesn’t seem like a promising scenario. Also, the Falcons are poorly coached, so it’s difficult to trust them because of Raheem Morris’ incompetence. I’ll still side with them for office pool purposes, but I can’t get myself to bet this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still can’t believe the Falcons opted not to take the bye after their Germany game. That’s just a microcosm of how poorly run Atlanta is.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Falcons could have some severe injury issues, particularly on their offensive line. They’re already missing two offensive linemen from last week, which will continue to be the case. A third lineman, Chris Lindstrom, who happens to be Atlanta’s best lineman, barely practiced this week. Meanwhile, Drake London was limited all week as well. On the other side, Leonard Floyd will be sidelined once again. The Panthers, conversely, are completely healthy. I’m going to side with the Panthers, but I can’t really bring myself to bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chris Lindstrom will play, but there’s no guarantee that he’s healthy. The sharps bet on the Falcons at -3.5. The best line is -4 -103 at Bookmaker. The best line is the standard +4 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

No edge found.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 52% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

Video of the Week: If you could redo your life, but had to die first, would you do it? That’s the premise of this short film:

I won’t spoil the ending, but wow.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers beat the Steelers on Sunday night, but they struggled to move the chains for most of the evening. They had a touchdown drive in the second quarter after a turnover, and they put together a 90-yard scoring possession when the Steelers gave up at the end, but the Chargers pretty much didn’t really do anything else.

The problem for the Chargers was the tackle play. With their top three tackles sidelined, they couldn’t block the Steelers at all, and Justin Herbert had to resort to short passes. Herbert will have to utilize a similar strategy in this game. The Jaguars don’t have a very good defense, but the one good thing they do on this side of the ball is generate heat on the quarterback. They have the 10th-highest pressure rate in the NFL, so they’ll be able to bother Herbert enough to disrupt many of the Chargers’ offensive drives.

Herbert was able to get some quality runs from Kimani Vidal on Sunday night. The Steelers are 21st against the run, so this wasn’t too much of a surprise. The Jaguars are 15th versus the rush, so while they’re not great at defending ground attacks, they’ll at least have a better chance of containing Vidal than Pittsburgh.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Justin Herbert isn’t the only struggling quarterback entering this game. Despite the team’s winning record, Trevor Lawrence has been a big disappointment this year. He’s two seasons removed from all the injuries he suffered at the end of the 2023 campaign, and he was paired with a new head coach and a No. 2 overall receiver, and yet Lawrence has not played very well.

Of course, Lawrence had a very difficult matchup against the Texans last week, but it doesn’t get much easier against the Chargers. San Angeles has had some issues on this side of the ball earlier in the season, but that hasn’t been the case since Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman returned from injury. Mack has been massive for the team’s pass rush. This is obviously bad news for the Jaguars, who surrender the eighth-most pressures in the NFL this season.

Perryman, meanwhile, has enhanced the Chargers’ run defense. Lawrence has been able to lean on Travis Etienne in some easy matchups this year, but this won’t be one of them.

RECAP: Both of these teams are on my fade list. I was very high on the Chargers early in the season, as well as in the Thursday night game against the Vikings a few weeks ago, but I can’t back them confidently because of their tackle injuries. Some of their results without Alt include a loss to the Giants, a near-loss to the Dolphins, and a blowout defeat at home to the Redskins. They could easily suffer a defeat in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars, however, can’t be trusted. They have the sort of defensive liabilities that allowed Davis Mills to lead a comeback in the fourth quarter. Offensively, the receivers are injured, the blocking sucks, and the quarterback sucks even more.

In the end, I trust Herbert more than Lawrence, so I’ll be siding with the Chargers. I have no intention of betting this game, barring some wild surprises on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still on the Chargers for no units. Nothing has changed concerning this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wrote previously that I would be on the Jaguars for no units, but I meant Chargers. I don’t really have anything to add right now. Still a lean on the Chargers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chargers look much more appealing right now. This is because the Jaguars won’t have their best offensive lineman (Anton Harrison) or their top receiver (Brian Thomas Jr.) I was wondering if the sharps would notice, but they have not. They haven’t bet either side. We’re going to put a unit on the Chargers at FanDuel, which has -3 -102 listed. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Decent action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 73% (82,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.