NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2025): 9-2-1 (+$890)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
2025 NFL Picks: 31-28-1 (-$2,045)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 25, 3:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 3 Analysis: I threw around the idea of writing a book about my bad beats last year, but didn’t do it for a couple of reasons. I forgot all of the specific games, and with two kids under four, I just didn’t have the energy during my time off from running this Web site.

Based on what has transpired through three weeks, I almost have to publish this book next summer. I can’t recall a three-week skid like this where we’ve been punished relentlessly by bad beat after bad beat. I thought that suffering back-door covers/spread losses on three last-minute drives in Week 2 was tough, but that was nothing compared to what transpired this week.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Colts, 3 units (win): A game we won that we handicapped perfectly. Those are a rarity these days.

Falcons, 5 units (loss): The Falcons were a complete no-show. They were smelling themselves following their national TV win over the Vikings, so they assumed they could show up to Carolina and just win. If anyone ever tells you that teams don’t look ahead early in the season, please just point to this result. I don’t know if I coud have seen this coming because a win over the Vikings didn’t seem like a huge deal to me, but it clearly was for the Atlanta players, perhaps because it occurred on national TV.

Viking, 5 units (win): It was nice that we didn’t have to worry about one of our five-unit picks.

Rams, 3 units (loss): This is one of the worst bad beats I’ve ever experienced. We had the Rams +3.5. They were up 26-7 in the third quarter. The Eagles came back and took the lead, and yet the Rams were still covering on the final play of the game when they attempted a field goal to win. But of course, the kick had to be blocked and returned for a touchdown by fat imbecile Jordan Davis, who should have just fallen on the ground because a Ram player could have caught up to him, swiped the ball away, and then returned it for a touchdown.

Jets, 3 units (win): We had a back-door cover go our way in this game, but then the Buccaneers put themselves in position to kick a front-door field goal because Baker Mayfield had to run 33 yards on a play in the final minute. Then, the Buccaneers should have gone for it on fourth-and-1, but they took a delay-of-game penalty to kick a field goal, as if those are a given. I’m complaining a lot about a win, but this shouldn’t have been so stressful.

49ers, 5 units (loss): This was ridiculous. We once again lost a top player to injury early on one of our top plays. It was Jalen Carter and Xavier Worthy in Week 1, and in this game, Nick Bosa got hurt before the second quarter. And yet, the 49ers still would have covered the game, except they took a safety in the fourth quarter because idiot punt returner Skyy Moore took a fair catch at the 6-yard line, and then Dominick Puni had one of the worst holding calls you’ll ever see in the end zone. I don’t know how you have a holding penalty in the end zone when the line of scrimmage is the 6-yard line, but whatever. I guess we’ll just lose another swing of $1,000 plus the vig because some draft bust with a girly name that has two Y’s in it doesn’t know when to call for a fair catch.

Can you tell that I am pissed by how this season has gone so far? I didn’t even discuss losing the Ashton Jeanty prop because he had an 18-yard run in garbage time, or how I had CeeDee Lamb in my single-entry DraftKings lineup that otherwise did very well. I swear, I am cursed.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals suffered a big loss to their offense on Sunday. That would be James Conner, who was knocked out for the year on a run he had in the third quarter. Some will expect Trey Benson to just step in and perform similarly, but while he’s explosive, he’s not as smart of a runner as Conner, meaning that he doesn’t always see the correct running lane. He also doesn’t do what Conner can in the passing game. We saw Emari Demarcado drop a big pass because of Conner’s absence.

The Seahawks are stout against the run – they rank fourth against it – so I would expect even less from Benson than normal. It’ll be up to Kyler Murray to carry the team on his shoulders, which is what he tried to do against the 49ers before his teammates betrayed him with some drops.

Murray could have some success getting the ball to Marvin Harrison Jr. if Devon Witherspoon is out again, though Harrison will have to avoid dropping passes. Murray will have more luck targeting Trey McBride, who will devour a Seattle defense that can’t stop tight ends at all.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Like the Seahawks, the Cardinals are also stout against the run. In fact, they’re even better, ranking third. They held Christian McCaffrey in check as a rusher, even stuffing him near the goal line on one crucial fourth-quarter sequence.

If Kenneth Walker can’t get going, Sam Darnold will be tasked to beat Arizona’s secondary, which shouldn’t be too difficult. The Cardinals have some glaring injuries in the defensive backfield, which the 49ers couldn’t quite take advantage of because of the backups playing at quarterback and wide receiver.

Darnold will thrive targeting Jaxson Smith-Njigba, the emerging Tory Taylor, and perhaps even the decrepit Cooper Kupp. Of course, this is when he’ll have time in the pocket. The Cardinals are averaging about 22 pressures per game, so they could get to Darnold and rattle him a bit.

RECAP: The rule for the Cardinals is to bet them when they’re playing bad teams because they tend to beat up on them. The other rule is to fade them when playing good teams. They’re just 2-9 against good teams since Week 1 last year.

But what about mediocre teams like the Seahawks? That’s obviously a gray area. Now, the argument could be made that the Seahawks are a good team, but they were inferior to the 49ers in Week 1, so I have some issue classifying them as a Group B team. Still, they could be Group B, which would explain why they swept Arizona last year.

I’m obviously torn on this game, so I won’t be betting it. However, I will be siding with the Seahawks at the moment.

Our Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Will Johnson will be out, so the Cardinals will once again have issues in their secondary. The Seahawks have owned the Cardinals, and I suspect that will continue.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Trey McBride has averaged 61 yards per game this year, so it makes sense that his prop would be around 62.5 for this game. Except, the Seahawks are the worst team at defending tight ends. McBride exploded for two big games against Seattle last year, and he should do the same in this matchup. The best number is over 62.5 receiving yards -112 at FanDuel, but we can boost half our bet to +134. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

DraftKings has a 33-percent boost for parlays on this game. We’re going with McBride over 64.5 receiving yards, Kyler Murray over 28.5 rushing yards, and Trey Benson under 56.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $174.50. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Each team is getting back a key player each – Devon Witherspoon for Seattle; Paris Johnson for Arizona – so the injury situation isn’t too significant outside of Will Johnson being sidelined for the Cardinals. I still would lean toward Seattle, but not with any sort of betting conviction. The sharps bet the Seahawks when they were underdogs. The best line is Seattle -1 -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -2.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Lots of action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 72% (273,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Road team has won 14 of the past 20 meetings, excluding a 2016 tie.

Cardinals are 51-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BOYCOTT GAME: I will be boycotting this game, and I urge all of you to do the same. When the NFL had one game in Europe and played it at 1 p.m. Eastern, I was fine with it. Two games began pushing it, especially when they began airing in the morning, and then three games were unacceptable. Now, there are seven European games, and they all begin at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast, which absolutely screws everyone living in that time zone. Football needs to be in America; not Europe. The NFL needs to go back to just one European game that is aired 1 p.m. Eastern. Tell Roger Goodell to f**k off, and send a message by purchasing this Make Football American Again t-shirt:

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings got back on track. All they needed to do was replace J.J. McCarthy with Carson Wentz. Problem solved!

OK, it was obviously much more than that. Upgrading McCarthy to Wentz helped, but the Vikings also blocked a lot better with Christian Darrisaw back from injury. He’ll be crucial in this matchup against T.J. Watt. When Wentz has time, he’ll be able to shred a horrible Pittsburgh secondary with his many talented weapons, which includes a returning Jordan Addison.

The Vikings should also be able to run well on the Steelers. Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to stop the run at all this year. With the help of Darrisaw, the Vikings can blast open better running lanes for Jordan Mason, who looked good versus the Bengals.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Darrisaw wasn’t the only Pro Bowl-caliber talent to return from injury. Andrew Van Ginkel and Harrison Smith also reentered the lineup, providing the Minnesota defense with a much-needed spark. The Vikings, as a result, scored two defensive touchdowns against the Bengals.

The Steelers can’t block, which will be a problem against the Van Ginkel-led Minnesota front. The Vikings will put lots of pressure on Aaron Rodgers, forcing him into some errors, which he did against this very same Viking team while playing for the Jets in London at this time last year.

Minnesota was able to clamp down on the run last week, which is something that it failed to do in its Week 2 loss versus the Falcons. I don’t see Jaylen Warren getting much on the ground in this matchup.

RECAP: I like backing the superior team in Thursday and international games because the inferior squad doesn’t have enough preparation time to build a game plan to defeat the stronger opponent. Of course, the better team needs to be focused, or this is all moot. See Buffalo’s effort last Thursday as a primary example of the superior squad being unfocused.

I see no reason why the Vikings would be unfocused on an international stage against a team with a winning record. They’ll bring their “A” game, just like they did last year versus Rodgers.

And speaking of Rodgers, he has a poor track record in Europe, albeit on a small sample size. He lost a big favorite to the Giants a few years ago, and his team was blown out by Minnesota last season. I believe history will repeat itself.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Vikings are much better than the Steelers, yet they’re favored by less than a field goal. This line makes little sense, but weird stuff happens in these horrible international games.

PLAYER PROPS: FanDuel has a 30-percent anytime touchdown boost for this game. Let’s put it on the player most likely to score a touchdown, which would be Jordan Mason. We’re getting -130 and turning it into +100. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -1.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 56% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 63-36 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 135-100 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 31-24 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Steelers -1.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 2-10 heading into Week 4.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots +1.5

Bills -8.5

Ravens -3.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, and 0-3 in Week 3. A rough start, to say the least.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Seahawks +1.5

Redskins -2.5

Bears +1

Chargers -6.5

The public is in rough shape. Can they rebound!?

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It was crucial for Philadelphia to reestablish its passing attack ahead of this matchup. That’s because the Buccaneers have the heaviest pass-funnel defense in the NFL. They swallow up running backs in the backfield routinely, thanks to Vita Vea; they haven’t allowed a 50-yard rusher since early December 2024.

The Eagles love to run their offense through Saquon Barkley, and why wouldn’t they? Barkley is one of the top players in the NFL and the reigning Offensive Player of the Year. Barkley, however, hasn’t seen the same running room that was available to him last year. He’ll find even less of it versus the Vea-led Tampa Bay front.

Jalen Hurts, however, proved that he can carry an offense in the incredible comeback from down 26-7 versus the Rams. It definitely helps that A.J. Brown is healthy. Brown couldn’t separate at all in the opener and was only marginally better in Week 2, but he exploded versus the Rams and projects extremely well against the Buccaneers.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The fact that the Buccaneers were able to beat the Jets was impressive. Not that beating the Jets itself is some great feat, but the Buccaneers did so without the services of three offensive linemen. And if that wasn’t enough, Mike Evans left with a hamstring injury in the second half.

This injury situation may have been OK against the Jets, but it’s not going to fly versus the Eagles. Philadelphia’s defensive line is just way too good. The Eagles will dominate in the trenches, clamping down on the run and putting pressure on Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield won’t be the same without Evans. Emeka Egbuka has been great, but he’s just a rookie, and more than one talented receiver is needed to solve Philadelphia’s talented secondary. Chris Godwin may play, but he’s certainly not ready to go and may suffer the same fate as Najee Harris, who also returned prematurely after barely practicing.

RECAP: The Buccaneers have beaten the Eagles in their prior two matchups, but this one is much different. In the other two battles, the Buccaneers were able to dominate an extremely shorthanded Philadelphia squad. The 2023 matchup saw Brown miss the game, while the Eagles underwent weird locker room turmoil throughout the second half of the year. Last season, the Eagles were missing Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson.

Now, the turntables have turned. The Eagles are mostly healthy, while the Buccaneers are missing numerous starters. Being down three offensive linemen and two receievers might as well be a death sentence against Philadelphia’s defense.

The Eagles are the right side in the lastest version of this rivalry. They’re better and healthier, and this line is too low. Also, it’s worth noting that the Buccaneers have the worst home-field advantage in the NFL; they’re inexplicably just 45-76 against the spread at home.

I wanted to bet the Eagles heavily at -2.5 or -3, but as of Tuesday morning, the line has jumped to -3.5. This isn’t ideal, but it’s also a sign of strength for the Eagles because the sportsbooks don’t care about any potential sharp money coming in on the Buccaneers at +3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money drove this up through three. The Eagles seem like the right side.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -2.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 54% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Road Team is 145-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 45-76 ATS at home in the previous 121 instances.

Buccaneers are 14-33 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s two pieces of hate mail that responded to me in a completely opposite way:

One guy told me that I was being racist, while the other guy was complaining that I wasn’t racist. Amazing.

By the way, the first guy is an imbecile. In his demented mind, I can’t say anything negative about a black quarterback because that would be considered racist. I think he’s the true racist here because he feels the need to white knight black quarterbacks, as if they can’t defend themselves.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It’s not a surprise that the Bills have another easy matchup. One of the reasons why we bet their over win total is because they had the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL.

Josh Allen and James Cook will dominate the Saints. New Orleans has a terrible defense that is particularly poor against the pass. A big problem is that the Saints can’t generate heat on the quarterback – they have only 30 pressures through three games – so Allen will have all the time he needs to shred New Orleans’ poor secondary.

The Saints are better against the run than the pass, but they can still allow some big gains to receivers out of the backfield. Cook could thrive in that regard.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: You may have noticed that the Bills weren’t at their best defensively against the Dolphins. The reason for that was Ed Oliver and Matt Milano being out of the lineup. Oliver is a force in the trenches, while Milano is the heart and soul of the defense, so the Dolphins naturally looked functional for a change.

Oliver and Milano have had extra time to recover from their injuries, so perhaps at least one will be back in the lineup. This will be overkill in this matchup because Spencer Rattler is an inept quarterback who can only perform well in garbage time. Rattler will likely commit some turnovers, giving the Bills unneeded free points.

Having Milano on the field will matter most against Alvin Kamara. The Bills are poor versus the rush when Milano isn’t on the field, so his presence will be a big boost in defending the Saints’ best offensive player.

RECAP: We just saw the Saints get demolished at Seattle. They lost by 31 points, so even though a line of -16.5 seems daunting, it really shouldn’t be.

If you’re afraid of laying any number this high, you may change your mind after looking at this stat: Favorites between 15 and 16.5 are 16-15-1 against the spread dating back to 2010. This isn’t some amazing trend – it’s barely over .500 – but it just shows that betting numbers this highly are about a 50-50 proposition, so don’t just pass on a game because this spread seems to be too large in general.

In fact, I wonder if this spread should be even higher. I’m going to be betting the Bills, who will treat New Orleans just like the Seahawks did last week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: To go further with the numbers I brought up before about it being OK to bet large spreads, teams favored by more than 14 in the first five weeks of the season are 10-3 against the spread since 2010. It’s not a large sample size, but again, it just shows you that it’s OK to bet these large numbers.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -16.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -14.5.

Computer Model: Bills -17.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 58% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Bills are 15-38 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Opening Line: Bills -14.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers won 30-0 last week, so they must have had some sort of offensive explosion, right? That’s not what the numbers say. The Panthers generated only 224 yards of offense and a meager 4.1 yards per play. That’s pitiful, especially against a team that wasn’t trying very hard.

I wouldn’t expect much from Carolina’s offense in this game either. The Patriots produce a fair amount of heat on the quarterback – 46 pressures through three games – so that should be enough to get to Bryce Young, given that there are multiple injuries on the Carolina front. Remember that Young still can’t see over the line of scrimmage, which could be a problem against Mike Vrabel’s schemes.

I don’t think the Panthers will be able to run all that well either. The Patriots rank 12th against the run despite battling De’Von Achane and Ashton Jeanty in two of their three games. They’ll be able to limit Chuba Hubbard.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots lost last week, while the Panthers won. New England scored just 14 points compared to Carolina’s 30. And yet, the Patriots were far better offensively than their counterpart. They gained 369 net yards and averaged 5.2 yards per play, and none of that came in garbage time.

The Patriots lost to the Steelers because they committed five turnovers, three of which were fumbles. Fumbles can be fluky plays, and we may not see much of the perpetrators this week, as Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson seemed to be benched in favor of the more-talented TreVeyon Henderson. The rookie should have a great game against the woeful Carolina run defense.

The Panthers aren’t much better against the pass because they have just 36 pressures through three games. Drake Maye will have all the time he’ll need to dissect Carolina’s secondary.

RECAP: I hate that this spread is so high. It’s actually not that high, but I was hoping that the line would be New England -3 or so after the Panthers won 30-0 and the Patriots lost to the Steelers.

Alas, it is not. The Patriots are favored by nearly a touchdown, which will likely get the public to back the Panthers. I would imagine that the sharps will come in on the Patriots because Carolina, despite its 30-0 victory, is horrible. The Panthers were blown out at Jacksonville and trailed 27-3 to the Cardinals before Arizona fell asleep at the wheel. The Falcons were a complete no-show, putting forth no effort last week, but the Patriots certainly will. They’re a young, underrated team hungry for a win. They’re much better than the dreadful Panthers.

I love fading the worst teams in the NFL, and I especially love going against them when they’re coming off a victory. I plan on betting the Patriots for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still like the Patriots, but wish we were getting a better number. But the Patriots and Jaguars are similar teams, and we saw what happened when Carolina visited Jacksonville.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -5.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 53% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Patriots -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear if Jayden Daniels will play. There’s no real update on his status just yet. Some are concerned he’ll miss this game, but we’ve seen him make a quick recovery in the past. Perhaps he’ll do so again. If Daniels can go, he may not have Terry McLaurin, who got banged up against the Raiders.

Either way, it’s not a promising outlook for the Redskins. If Daniels returns, he may not be 100 percent. And if it’s Marcus Mariota, he won’t have the same success this week because the Falcons, despite their 30-0 loss last week, are still eighth in defensive EPA. Backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top defenses.

The Falcons are capable of clamping down on the run and rattling opposing quarterbacks. They have 53 pressures through three games, so they’ll be able to force Washington’s quarterback into turnovers.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons have their own concerns on this side of the ball. They were a no-show versus the Panthers, but Michael Penix Jr. was truly awful. He could have thrown five interceptions in that game. He was responsible for some of the worst quarterbacking we’ve seen this year.

Penix won’t be able to lean on Bijan Robinson. The Redskins rank sixth against the run, as they’ve limited Josh Jacobs and Ashton Jeanty the past two weeks. Robinson could have some big gains as a receiver out of the backfield, however.

Washington is at its weakest defensively in the secondary. This is why it’s crucial for Penix to rebound. He’ll have to carry the team. While I expect a better performance out of him, it’s fair to be skeptical if he can lead his team to victory.

RECAP: Watching the public come in on the Redskins was one of the most predictable things in the world. Washington wiped the floor with the Raiders despite missing Daniels last week, so how could it not win with Daniels potentially able to return over an Atlanta team that was completely humiliated by the Panthers by the score of 30-0?

I don’t think it’s that simple. Consider that the Redskins will be playing with a potentially injured quarterback. Daniels might be due back, but there’s a chance he won’t be 100 percent if he plays. I love backing good teams with backup quarterbacks as long as they’re not battling top defenses, but I’m wary of those same good teams welcoming back their starting signal-caller. And if it’s Mariota, he won’t do as well this week because Atlanta has a top-10 defense according to EPA numbers.

Also, the Falcons will be playing for pride after becoming the laughing stock of the NFL. They had a big win over the Vikings on national TV in Week 2, but decided to “smell themselves” and just mail in the Carolina game. They thought they could just show up and beat the Falcons, and that ended up costing them. The Falcons are a decent team that will be trying much harder this week, so they’ll be much tougher to beat in this contest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The more I think about it, the more I like the Falcons. It’s ridiculous that they are home underdogs against a backup quarterback missing his top receiver. Yes, they lost 30-0, but they also went into Minnesota and won when they were trying. I’m going to mark this down as a three-unit pick.

The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.

The Falcons will be playing for pride after being embarrassed last week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.5.

Computer Model: Redskins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Why would the public back Atlanta?

Percentage of money on Washington: 62% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Redskins -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

DETROIT OFFENSE: No Ben Johnson, no Frank Ragnow, no Kevin Zeitler, no problem. The Lions are just as explosive as ever offensively, as we’ve seen the past two weeks. They’ve scored 52 and 38 in the past two games. They’re clearly going 15-2 again, and perhaps even winning the #Supergame.

We’ll see if this offensive explosion is real or not in this game. The Bears have a horrific defense, and so do the Ravens without Justin Madubuike, Kyle Van Noy and Jaire Alexander. The Browns, conversely, have dismantled every opposing offense they’ve faced this year. The Joe Burrow-led Bengals could barely score on them, while the Packers mustered only 10 points. Cleveland’s stout run defense will bottle up Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

Jared Goff will have to operate without the assistance of his usually dynamic ground attack. Goff can be great when everything’s going well, but he can break down and get into trouble in tough situations, and this will qualify as such with the Browns’ great pass rush bearing down on him.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns could be 2-1 right now if they had Quinshon Judkins available in Week 1. They couldn’t move the ball on the ground against the Bengals, forcing Joe Flacco to throw often. Flacco was tabbed with two interceptions because of drops by Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman. Judkins would have been able to keep the chains moving, potentially preventing this from happening.

Judkins faces a much tougher matchup this week, given that Detroit’s stout run defense just clamped down on Derrick Henry. However, his presence will at least force the Lions to respect the run.

Given that the Lions will have to focus at least a bit on Judkins, Flacco will have an easier time against the Lions than he would otherwise. I have concerns about Cleveland’s offensive line against Detroit’s talented pass rush if Jack Conklin is sidelined again, but if the Browns get Conklin back from injury, they’ll be able to block enough for Flacco to exploit some of the weaknesses in Detroit’s secondary.

RECAP: The demise of the Lions has been greatly exaggerated, apparently. They were great on Monday night, albeit against a Baltimore team that was missing nearly half of its defense. Still, the way they dismantled Lamar Jackson was very impressive.

Detroit’s win over the Ravens could be a good opportunity to fade them on an inflated line. Everyone is certainly buying the Lions Super Bowl hype, though I can’t say I’m quite there yet. I think the Detroit players will be buying the hype as well, but they’ll be matched up against a Cleveland team that has been very feisty through three weeks. The Browns have outgained their opposition by about 300 yards and could very easily be 2-1 right now. They play great defense and have some talented skill players, while their quarterback isn’t inept like the players at the position they had last year.

I’m not enthused to go against the Lions buzzsaw that will certainly go 17-0 this year because they’re literally the best in the NFL right now, but I like the Browns to cover the spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy, our Wednesday guest on the After Dark Show, made a compelling case for Detroit:

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Lions are coming off a big win against the Ravens on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -9.5.

Computer Model: Lions -10.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 55% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions -9.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I find it funny that the Texans are favored by seven points in this game, and yet we don’t even know if they can score seven points. That’s how pitiful this unit is. It feels like every time the Texans score this year, it’s an accident. And it’s not like they’ve played great defenses either. Sure, I’ll give them the Rams in Week 1, but the Buccaneers and Jaguars defenses are not difficult to solve.

There’s a lot wrong with the Texans right now, but it all stems from the offensive line. For reasons unknown, Houston traded its Pro Bowl left tackle this offseason and never replaced him. C.J. Stroud is constantly running for his life. Perhaps he’ll get a reprieve in this game because the Titans have only 38 pressures through three games, but I don’t even trust the Houston offensive line to shield Stroud from Tennessee’s pedestrian pass rush.

The Texans also can’t run the ball with a decrepit Nick Chubb. It feels like the Texans would be better served kneeling down instead of giving Chubb carries, so the Titans can focus on the pass. Stroud’s lone dynamic weapon is Nico Collins, so perhaps the Titans will double team him and force the under-siege Stroud to look elsewhere.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Cam Ward was guilty of a horrible mistake early against the Colts when he floated a pick-six on the opening drive, but handled himself well after that, at least in between the 30s. Ward stalled whenever he reached the brink of field goal range, forcing his kicker to try some long field goals. Brian Callahan being responsible for a delay-of-game penalty out of his own timeout didn’t help matters.

Ward will theoretically face a tough matchup in this game. The Texans are known for having a great defense, but we haven’t seen it in crucial moments the past two weeks. Houston can at least pressure the quarterback when the game isn’t on the line – 66 pressures through three games – so Ward, playing behind his poor offensive line, will have issues remaining upright.

Ward will have to rely on his own legs, as well as Tony Pollard carries, to keep the chains moving. The Texans are somehow just 22nd in run defense EPA, so Ward and Pollard’s runs could keep the Titans competitive.

RECAP: This is the most unappealing game of the week from a betting standpoint. I’m sure it’ll suck to watch, too, but I can’t really decide which side I want in this game.

On one hand, we can fade the Titans. That seems great because betting against the worst teams in the league is often a lucrative strategy. It worked the past two weeks with Tennessee, after all. However, that would require us to lay a touchdown with the offensively inept Texans. Can the Texans even score a touchdown in this game? I have serious doubts about that because of how horrific their offensive line is.

So, do we back the Titans? That would require betting one of the worst teams in the league and a raw, rookie quarterback against a strong pass defense. No thanks!

I’m going to side with the Titans because I think this spread is too high, but I will not be betting them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. I don’t plan on betting this game. Under the points, if anything.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -6.5.

Computer Model: Texans -7.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 55% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Texans are 58-45 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (9-11 ATS as favorites).

Opening Line: Texans -6.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

Video of the Week: What would it be like if a whack job wakes up after being in a coma for five years?

One of the first questions I had was, why was she wearing a watch despite being in a coma for five years?

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert continues to dominate. Herbert was terrific in Brazil against the Chiefs, aggressively attacking the secondary in the fourth quarter. Herbert hasn’t slowed down en route to a 3-0 start.

There’s no reason to think that Herbert won’t be able to stay hot. The Giants have some talented pass rushers, but really nothing else on defense. They allowed Dak Prescott to throw all over them in Week 2 and then revived Patrick Mahomes’ season on Sunday night. There are some major issues at cornerback, which is something Herbert will be able to easily exploit with the injection of talent he’s had at receiver this year.

Making matters worse for the Giants, they have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Only the Bills have a worse EPA against the rush through three weeks, so Omarion Hampton could have his best game yet.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I can’t say that it’s surprising that Herbert has performed on an MVP level this year. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, after all. What is shocking is that the Chargers defense has been so exceptional through three weeks. Khalil Mack has missed the previous game-and-a-half, and yet the Chargers are ninth in defensive EPA despite battling the Chiefs and Broncos in two games.

The Giants will be a very simple matchup by comparison. The Chargers generate plenty of pressure on the quarterback, and the Giants can’t block. Andrew Thomas’ return last week was supposed to help, but he couldn’t even last the entire game. Rusell Wilson has been benched in favor of Jaxson Dart, so it’s not ideal that the rookie quarterback is placed in a tough spot in such a difficult matchup. Perhaps waiting until Week 5 versus the Saints would have been better.

Save for Malik Nabers’ Week 2 performance, the lone bright spot for the Giants’ long-term plans has been Cam Skattebo. He’s run very well in place of the injured Tyrone Tracy, but he’ll face a bit of a challenge against the Chargers, who have stopped the run well thus far.

RECAP: I will be betting the Chargers heavily this week. They’re the far superior team in this matchup. One could claim that they’re a top-five team in the NFL, while the Giants are quite possibly a bottom-five team. This spread should be close to double digits, but it’s not.

The one argument that could be made for the Giants is that the Chargers could be a bit deflated coming off three divisional games. However, they’re extremely well coached, and they’re a relatively young team that will want to continue its winning streak. I wonder if the quarterback change will catch their attention. Plus, this is an early game on the East Coast, and we know that the top coaches like Jim Harbaugh and Sean McVay treat these games with extra attention because they know how challenging the body clock change is for players.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something I didn’t include in my write-up is that Jim Harbaugh was 4-0 against rookie quarterbacks last year. Harbaugh versus a rookie quarterback seems like an automtic wager.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

The Chargers are coming off three divisional wins, but this is an early game on the East Coast.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -5.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Sharp money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 72% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jim Harbaugh is 10-1 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Russell Wilson is 35-18 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Russell Wilson is 37-22 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Chargers -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .