2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Colts at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Many doubted Jonathan Taylor heading into this season because of his injury history and two replacements on the offensive line, but he’s been stellar. He’s currently should be the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, and he’s even in MVP consideration.

Taylor figures to run well on the Rams. Los Angeles has a history of struggling versus the run, stemming from last year when Saquon Barkley breezed through their defense on two occasions. The Rams will also have to worry about Daniel Jones’ mobility as well.

Speaking of Jones, he’ll be in a tough spot against the Rams pass rush. Los Angeles is excellent at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so Indianapolis’ new offensive linemen will be tested.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Colts can also generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks at a decent rate, so the health of the Rams offensive line will be crucial for this matchup. The Rams were missing two guards by the end of last week’s Eagles game, which will spell trouble against an Indianapolis front comprised of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart.

The Rams won’t have much success running the ball if they’re down two interior blockers. The Colts being ranked 11th against ground attacks won’t help matters.

Matthew Stafford will have more of a burden on his shoulders this week, which, as discussed earlier, will be challenging if two interior linemen are sidelined. The Colts have some holes in the secondary that can be exploited, however, so Stafford will certainly have some big connections with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

RECAP: Where’s the respect for the Colts!? They’re 3-0, yet they’re getting more than a field goal. Sure, they’re battling a strong team in the Rams, but the Colts can argue that they’re a strong team as well.

I made this line Los Angeles -2.5, so I think this spread is on the wrong side of three. I like the Colts here, and not just because of the line being incorrect. The Rams are in a tough scheduling spot because they battle their archrival 49ers in just four days, so it would be in their best interest in focusing on that big game rather than this non-conference battle.

That said, Sean McVay is a terrific coach, and the Rams are a strong team, so I could see them fighting hard in this game to cover the spread. So, while I like the Colts, I don’t plan on betting them very heavily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is another game in which Andy made a compelling case for the opposite side:

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have some major injury concerns. The Colts may not have DeForest Buckner, who missed Friday’s practice. They’ll already be without Kenny Moore and a starting guard. Meanwhile, the Rams get a guard back from injury, but Davante Adams and Rob Havenstein look iffy to play. I’m going to re-designate this as TBA units until we have some clarity with these injuries.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There are some big names who may pop up on the inactives list, so we’ll have to see what that looks like. Check back around 3:30 Eastern.

FINAL THOUGHTS: DeForest Buckner will play. Davante Adams and Rob Havenstein will play. How boring! I won’t have a play on this game, and the sharps haven’t touched this game at +3.5 either. If you like the Colts, you can get +3.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Colts play against the 49ers in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -4.5.

Computer Model: Rams -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 57% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -4.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.