2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Jaguars at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: There’s good news and bad news concerning the 49ers and their health situation. The good news is that Brock Purdy is expected back this week. Jauan Jennings may return as well, while George Kittle won’t be too far behind. San Francisco was stagnant on this side of the ball versus Arizona, scoring a meager 16 points, but the offense will improve soon.

Purdy and Ricky Pearsall won’t have too much of a challenge in this matchup, aside from the former dealing with Jacksonville’s edge rush. The Jaguars can really get after the quarterback, but the 49ers have strong edge blocking to keep Purdy safe. Purdy, as a result, will be able to attack Jacksonville’s secondary.

Christian McCaffrey figures to have a strong showing as well. The Jaguars are ranked in the middle of the pack against the run, but haven’t exactly been tested in that regard yet. Stopping McCaffrey compared to a decrepit Nick Chubb or a mediocre Chuba Hubbard is quite different.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The bad news for the 49ers is that Nick Bosa is out for the year with a torn ACL. Rookie Mykel Williams thrived last week, but Bosa will sorely be missed because he’s one of the top edge players in the NFL.

Bosa’s absence will make Trevor Lawrence’s life so much easier. And Lawrence needs all the help he can get because he has struggled mightily this year. Granted, he had a very difficult matchup against the Texans last week, but Lawrence couldn’t fully take advantage of the Carolina and Cincinnati matchups either. It would help if Travis Hunter knew where to line up, but Liam Coen seems to be in way over his head right now.

The Jaguars should be able to establish their running backs fairly well, whether it’s as rushers or receivers over the backfield. The 49ers, like the Jaguars, are just in the middle of the pack when defending runners.

RECAP: I don’t have any interest in betting this game. I must have been on drugs because I swear I saw that this line was Jacksonville +7, and I began to write about how much I loved the Jaguars at that number. But then I looked at the line, and it was +3 after opening at +4. As you can imagine, my opinion on the Jaguars at +3 and +7 is quite different.

There’s very little margin for error for the Jaguars at +3. They’re the inferior team because Lawrence sucks and Coen is clueless, but without Bosa, the 49ers are a shell of their former selves.

One other reason to dislike the 49ers this week is because they have to battle the archrival Rams on Thursday night after this game. Given that the 49ers are 3-0, they could very easily overlook a non-conference foe like Jacksonville.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Jaguars are now +3.5. This gives us more room for errr, but it’s not a good sign that this line moved off -3, as the sharps may have had something to do with that.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brock Purdy will be back this week, but both San Francisco receivers are listed as questionable. Jauan Jennings barely practiced this week, while Ricky Pearsall was DNP-limited-limited. If they’re both out, I will be betting some number of units on Jacksonville.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Looks like there’s sharp money coming in on the Jaguars on Sunday morning. Do the pros know something about the impending inactives list?

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was going to consider betting the Jaguars if both Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings were declared inactive, but they’re both going to play. I won’t be on either side, but as mentioned in the morning, the sharps are on Jacksonville. The best line is +3.5 -120 at both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The 49ers are 3-0 and battle the Rams in four days.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -3.

Computer Model: 49ers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 62% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Jaguars are 66-113 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 22-54 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 71 degrees. Light wind.