2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Bengals at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Denver, the Yard High City, where the Denver Broncies will take on the Cincinnati Tigers. Guys, as you can see, I’m not there with you right now, and I’m joining you via Google Hangouts instead. I wanted to use Zoom, but Mother said that Chinese malware is the devil. Guys, you might be thinking that I’m staying at home in protest because my Philadelphia Eagles, the greatest team in the world, is not playing on Monday night yet again, but it’s because Mother forbade me to go. She’s hearing that a lot of famous people are being assassinated like that Kirk guy, and she fears that I might be next because I’m so famous and controversial.

Emmitt: Thanks, Kirk. I does not belief that you very conversational. Every times I try to talk to you, all you mentioning is how you can’t not talk to girl because they the devil, or you bragging about your Nick Folds bubble head doll, and only little girl play with doll.

Reilly: Emmitt, how dare you? My Nick Foles – not Nick Folds, dumba** – bobblehead doll collection is priceless and everyone is jealous of it. That alone makes me a huge target, and there are probably lots of posts on social media talking about how everyone wants to shoot me. I would see this myself on social media, but I’m not allowed on social media because Mother says that it’s the devil.

Tollefson: Reilly, no one is going to shoot you. If anyone’s getting shot, it’s me. My greatest fear is that the husbands and boyfriends of the women I kidnap to cook and clean naked for me will find me and put me into an early grave. But no, this will not stop me from kidnapping women. If I don’t do that, who will cook and clean naked for me? And whose bodies could I possibly dump into the ocean if they misbehave? What a horrible life that would be for me if I didn’t kidnap women!

Reilly: Tolly, I don’t think you understand how influential I am. Clarissa Thomas, you usually have accurate reports. Can you please tell Tolly that it’s highly likely that someone will assassinate me?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mark. I can confirm that someone is going to try to assassinate you, Mark. In other news, I have an injury report for you. Terrell Davis broke his liver and will not be available for this game. Back to you, Kirk.

Reilly: Oh man, I have Terrell Davis on my fantasy team, but I can’t change my lineup because it’s on ESPN, and Mother says ESPN is the devil. I need to stop talking and duck under the couch so someone doesn’t shoot me from my own living room, so let’s go to Mina Kimes, who will probably tell us about how she’s oppressed and whatnot.

Mina Kimes: Guys, everyone is talking about what I said this year. I said that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback, but then he had a bad game against the Raiders. This is what happens when you’re oppressed as a female Asian football analyst. In fact, if anyone is going to be shot here, it’s me. No one is hated more than a female Asian NFL analyst. Everyone is mad at me for saying that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback, but I was somehow wrong because I was being oppressed, and now everyone wants to shoot me. If I happened to be a white male NFL analyst, no one would want to shoot me, and I probably wouldn’t have said that Geno Smith wasn’t a top-one quarterback, only because I wouldn’t be so oppressed.

Reilly: Are you crazy!? No one wants to shoot you compared to- BANG! BANG! BANG! AHHH I HEAR GUNFIRE, THEY’RE COMING TO GET ME, AHHHHH!!!

Sarah Spain: HAHAHHAHA YES YES, YES!!! THEY SHOT KEVIN REILLY, HAHAHAHAHAAHAHA, OH HAPPY DAY! IT’S ALWAYS GREAT WHEN WHITE MALE NFL ANALYSTS ARE SHOT!!!

Mina Kimes: Oh, come on! This is horrible! Sarah, you shouldn’t be happy that Kevin got shot. You should be upset that I didn’t get shot which is only because I’m being oppressed as a female Asian NFL analyst!

Reilly: Guys, it’s OK. I dodged a bullet. Not literally. Those gunfire noises are from the TV. Mother is watching some war movie. She said I can’t watch because I’m not old enough, and I need a permission slip. New Daddy, can you sign my permission slip, pretty please!?

Jay Cutler: Nah, I don’t want you here because I don’t wanna get shot.

Reilly: New Daddy, that’s so nice that you care about me. I just hope I’m not the latest big figure to be assassinated.

Charles Davis: Kevin, you said you’re a big figure so let’s discuss other fat people, Kevin. Let’s begin with Rosie O’Donnell, Kevin. What do you think about Sally Struthers, Kevin? We’d be remiss not to talk about the fattest man ever, Walter Hudson, Kevin. How about the late Chris Farley Kevin? Give me your thoughts on Kevin James, Kevin. That’s another Kevin, Kevin. Maybe there’s something to Kevins being fat people, Kevin.

Reilly: Charles Davis, I didn’t say I was fat! You’re the one who’s fat! But that doesn’t mean that you’re going to be assassinated like me because you’re ugly and no one likes you!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Jake Browning’s “second” season hasn’t gotten off to the start Bengal fans were anticipating. The Bengals were embarrassed in Minnesota, with the Vikings defense outscoring the Bengals offense with two returned touchdowns.

We could see more of the same in this game. Denver has a terrific pass rush that was able to hound Justin Herbert last week. As great of a left tackle as Joe Alt is, Nik “Casa” Bonitto had his way with him. If Bonitto could dominate Alt, just imagine what he’s going to do to Cincinnati’s blind-side protector. Browning doesn’t stand a chance, especially with his top receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, dealing with Patrick Surtain II.

Running won’t be an option either. The Falcons compiled about 200 rushing yards on the Vikings, and yet Chase Brown couldn’t even reach double-digit yardage because Minnesota crowded the line of scrimmage. The Vikings correctly determined that they didn’t need to respect Browning, and the Broncos will be able to treat the backup quarterback similarly.

DENVER OFFENSE: Shockingly, Cincinnati’s defense wasn’t the worst unit on the field against the Vikings. Sure, they allowed some big gains, but they were able to pressure Carson Wentz on occasion.

It’s unlikely that the Bengals will have the same success against Bo Nix. Denver’s offensive line is in better shape right now, and Nix has some mobility to avoid Cincinnati’s pass rushers. Nix missed some deep throws last week, so he’ll need to do a better job of completing good opportunities. It’ll be easier to do that against Cincinnati than the Chargers.

Nix will be able to feed his running backs and expect great results as well. Jordan Mason just trampled Cincinnati’s weak run defense, so we can expect similar results from J.K. Dobbins.

RECAP: The Vikings were one of our top plays last week because it’s obvious that the Bengals are done. They won some games with Browning two years ago, but their defense still had solid players like D.J. Reader, Chidobe Awuzie, and Sam Hubbard in addition to Trey Hendrickson. Now, they just have Hendrickson. Offensively, the blocking is miserable. Browning just has no chance against teams with great defenses.

The Broncos obviously have a great defense. They’ll generate tons of pressure on Browning, forcing him and the rest of the team into more turnovers. And the Broncos will be able to score at will.

We’ll once again be fading the Bengals for a high-unit play. Not only are the Broncos the far better team in this matchup; they’re also in a great spot because they’re coming off two consecutive losses. There will be a sense of urgency to avoid a 1-3 start. We just saw something similar from the Vikings, who rebounded off a blowout loss on national TV. At 1-2, the Broncos can’t afford to play any games, so we’ll see them at their best against one of the league’s worst.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may bet the -20.5 alt line at +400 or so odds. This game likely won’t be competitive.

SATURDAY NOTES: It doesn’t look like we’re waiting on anyone concerning the injury report. This seems to be a very easy pick on Denver.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This is another game where I’ll be betting the alt line. Check back Monday evening for more.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Bengals have been trampled against the run the past two weeks, and that won’t change tonight. J.K. Dobbins’ best number is over 64.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

We’re going to bet Dobbins over rushing yards (66.5), Ja’Marr Chase under 67.5 receiving yards, Chase Brown over 2.5 receptions, and Broncos moneyline. This $25 parlay is boosted at BetMGM and pays $141.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Broncos seem pretty straightforward here, as they’re the superior team in a great spot. The Bengals, meanwhile, are an automatic fade with a bad quarterback going against an elite defense. The sharps, for some reason, haven’t weighed in on this game. The best line is -7.5 -103 at Bookmaker, but what’s even better is that you can get -7 -115 at the same sportsbook. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

I’m also going to bet the alt line of -20.5. The best -20.5 is at +420 vig on DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Broncos will look to avoid 1-3.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -6.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Equal action early, Broncos action late.

Percentage of money on Denver: 70% (221,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Zac Taylor is 11-4 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 66 degrees. Light wind.