2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Titans at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: I find it funny that the Texans are favored by seven points in this game, and yet we don’t even know if they can score seven points. That’s how pitiful this unit is. It feels like every time the Texans score this year, it’s an accident. And it’s not like they’ve played great defenses either. Sure, I’ll give them the Rams in Week 1, but the Buccaneers and Jaguars defenses are not difficult to solve.

There’s a lot wrong with the Texans right now, but it all stems from the offensive line. For reasons unknown, Houston traded its Pro Bowl left tackle this offseason and never replaced him. C.J. Stroud is constantly running for his life. Perhaps he’ll get a reprieve in this game because the Titans have only 38 pressures through three games, but I don’t even trust the Houston offensive line to shield Stroud from Tennessee’s pedestrian pass rush.

The Texans also can’t run the ball with a decrepit Nick Chubb. It feels like the Texans would be better served kneeling down instead of giving Chubb carries, so the Titans can focus on the pass. Stroud’s lone dynamic weapon is Nico Collins, so perhaps the Titans will double team him and force the under-siege Stroud to look elsewhere.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Cam Ward was guilty of a horrible mistake early against the Colts when he floated a pick-six on the opening drive, but handled himself well after that, at least in between the 30s. Ward stalled whenever he reached the brink of field goal range, forcing his kicker to try some long field goals. Brian Callahan being responsible for a delay-of-game penalty out of his own timeout didn’t help matters.

Ward will theoretically face a tough matchup in this game. The Texans are known for having a great defense, but we haven’t seen it in crucial moments the past two weeks. Houston can at least pressure the quarterback when the game isn’t on the line – 66 pressures through three games – so Ward, playing behind his poor offensive line, will have issues remaining upright.

Ward will have to rely on his own legs, as well as Tony Pollard carries, to keep the chains moving. The Texans are somehow just 22nd in run defense EPA, so Ward and Pollard’s runs could keep the Titans competitive.

RECAP: This is the most unappealing game of the week from a betting standpoint. I’m sure it’ll suck to watch, too, but I can’t really decide which side I want in this game.

On one hand, we can fade the Titans. That seems great because betting against the worst teams in the league is often a lucrative strategy. It worked the past two weeks with Tennessee, after all. However, that would require us to lay a touchdown with the offensively inept Texans. Can the Texans even score a touchdown in this game? I have serious doubts about that because of how horrific their offensive line is.

So, do we back the Titans? That would require betting one of the worst teams in the league and a raw, rookie quarterback against a strong pass defense. No thanks!

I’m going to side with the Titans because I think this spread is too high, but I will not be betting them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. I don’t plan on betting this game. Under the points, if anything.

SATURDAY NOTES: Derek Stingley Jr. could be missing for the Texans, though it remains to be seen if the Titans can take advantage of that. I’m still neutral on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another big favorite the sharps are betting. They’ve taken this line up to -7.5. If you want to bet the Titans, this line is +7.5 -114 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -6.5.

Computer Model: Texans -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Money coming in on the Titans.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 65% (87,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Texans are 58-45 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (9-11 ATS as favorites).

Opening Line: Texans -6.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.