2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Packers at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the second part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I met a major scumbag of a father.

DALLAS OFFENSE: We must begin on this side of the ball because that’s where all the injuries and the intrigue happen to be. The Cowboys have a number of injuries, with CeeDee Lamb being the most prominent player who will be sidelined. Lamb hurt his ankle early against the Bears, and it was so inflamed that he could barely move on the field. He’ll be sidelined 3-4 weeks. Meanwhile, the Cowboys will be down two offensive linemen, with guard Tyler Booker joining center Cooper Beebe on the injury report.

The intrigue, of course, concerns Micah Parsons’ return to Dallas. Parsons will be out for blood, and he’ll have an easy time getting to his former quarterback, given the horrible situation with Dallas’ offensive line. Dak Prescott will be under heavy heat from Parsons, Rashan Gary, and others, and he won’t have his No. 1 receiver at his disposal. That’s not good.

I wouldn’t count on the Cowboys running either. The Packers shut down the Detroit and Washington rushing attacks, and Javonte Williams won’t find much running room behind a line missing two interior blockers.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s tough to say if the Cowboys are in worse shape on offense or defense. That may sound strange after the previous three paragraphs, given that the Cowboys have so many injuries, but their defense is likely worse than the offense.

The Cowboys have allowed some historic performances to pedestrian quarterbacks the past two games. In Week 2, Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards against Dallas. This past Sunday, Caleb Williams had the best performance of his career. If Wilson and Williams were able to thrive, imagine what “No Cookie” Jordan Love is going to do.

Love isn’t the best quarterback, but he’s certainly better than the two aforementioned signal-callers. He’ll also be able to lean on Josh Jacobs, who figures to thrive against a team that is weak versus the rush.

RECAP: I don’t see how this isn’t going to be a massacre. Forget the Parsons stuff for a second. The Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL, and they’ll be motivated coming off an ugly upset loss to the Browns. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the NFL. That wasn’t quite the case at the start of the year – although they were ranked in Group D in my NFL Power Rankings – but they’ve lost two offensive linemen and their top receiver.

Given the disparity between these teams, this line must be high. My projected spread for this game is Green Bay -11.5. And yet, the line is just a touchdown. This is a huge misprice because people don’t quite understand how awful the Cowboys are. People still remember the Week 2 shootout versus the Giants, but that was just a case of two poor teams battling each other.

And now, we get to the Parsons stuff, which is huge motivation. We tend to see teams rally around players who return to battle their former teams. Some recent examples include Tom Brady winning against the Patriots, or A.J. Brown demolishing the Titans. You can go all the way back to Lawer Milloy helping Buffalo’s defense force four interceptions of Brady. Parsons will be playing out of his mind for revenge.

This has to be a huge play. I can’t fathom an argument for the Cowboys, especially given that this line is so low.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is still one of my top plays. The Packers should dominate the Cowboys.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been asked about the Packers missing both of their guards. I’m not concerned. First of all, Aaron Banks stinks, so he’s easily replaceable. Zach Tom, not so much. And second, who on Dallas’ defensive line is going to take advantage of this?

PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Rather than a player prop, we’re going with a team prop: Dallas under 19.5 points. The best number is under 19.5 points -102 at DraftKings.

Staying on DraftKings, they have a 33-percent parlay boost for this game. We’re going to bet the Cowboys under 19.5 points, Javonte Williams under 50.5 rushing yards, and over 0.5 Dak Prescott interceptions. This $25 parlay pays $121.25. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Packers and plan on betting their alt line. Check back around 7:45 Eastern for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some sharp money on the Packers earlier in the week, but other sharp action came in on the Cowboys at +7 and a bit at +6.5. You can get a near-clean -6 -112 at Bookmaker, though we’ll be betting a bit at FanDuel because they have a 50-percent profit boost, and a bit on BetMGM for a similar reason. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link. I’m also betting the alt line of Packers -20.5 +520, available at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

Micah Parsons revenge.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -4.5.

Computer Model: Packers -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Lots of action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 80% (194,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.