2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Redskins at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear if Jayden Daniels will play. There’s no real update on his status just yet. Some are concerned he’ll miss this game, but we’ve seen him make a quick recovery in the past. Perhaps he’ll do so again. If Daniels can go, he may not have Terry McLaurin, who got banged up against the Raiders.

Either way, it’s not a promising outlook for the Redskins. If Daniels returns, he may not be 100 percent. And if it’s Marcus Mariota, he won’t have the same success this week because the Falcons, despite their 30-0 loss last week, are still eighth in defensive EPA. Backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top defenses.

The Falcons are capable of clamping down on the run and rattling opposing quarterbacks. They have 53 pressures through three games, so they’ll be able to force Washington’s quarterback into turnovers.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons have their own concerns on this side of the ball. They were a no-show versus the Panthers, but Michael Penix Jr. was truly awful. He could have thrown five interceptions in that game. He was responsible for some of the worst quarterbacking we’ve seen this year.

Penix won’t be able to lean on Bijan Robinson. The Redskins rank sixth against the run, as they’ve limited Josh Jacobs and Ashton Jeanty the past two weeks. Robinson could have some big gains as a receiver out of the backfield, however.

Washington is at its weakest defensively in the secondary. This is why it’s crucial for Penix to rebound. He’ll have to carry the team. While I expect a better performance out of him, it’s fair to be skeptical if he can lead his team to victory.

RECAP: Watching the public come in on the Redskins was one of the most predictable things in the world. Washington wiped the floor with the Raiders despite missing Daniels last week, so how could it not win with Daniels potentially able to return over an Atlanta team that was completely humiliated by the Panthers by the score of 30-0?

I don’t think it’s that simple. Consider that the Redskins will be playing with a potentially injured quarterback. Daniels might be due back, but there’s a chance he won’t be 100 percent if he plays. I love backing good teams with backup quarterbacks as long as they’re not battling top defenses, but I’m wary of those same good teams welcoming back their starting signal-caller. And if it’s Mariota, he won’t do as well this week because Atlanta has a top-10 defense according to EPA numbers.

Also, the Falcons will be playing for pride after becoming the laughing stock of the NFL. They had a big win over the Vikings on national TV in Week 2, but decided to “smell themselves” and just mail in the Carolina game. They thought they could just show up and beat the Falcons, and that ended up costing them. The Falcons are a decent team that will be trying much harder this week, so they’ll be much tougher to beat in this contest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The more I think about it, the more I like the Falcons. It’s ridiculous that they are home underdogs against a backup quarterback missing his top receiver. Yes, they lost 30-0, but they also went into Minnesota and won when they were trying. I’m going to mark this down as a three-unit pick.

SATURDAY NOTES: As expected, the Redskins won’t have Jayden Daniels or Terry McLaurin. The Falcons are now favored in the wake of the news, but I expect them to rebound from last week’s ultimate dud and win this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another game with a public-sharp dichotomy. The public is backing the Redskins, apparently because they were so impressed with Marcus Mariota last week, while the sharps are on Atlanta. This line is -2.5 everywhere, but has been juiced at almost every sportsbook. Not at DraftKings, however! The line there is -2.5 -110. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.

The Falcons will be playing for pride after being embarrassed last week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.5.

Computer Model: Redskins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Why would the public back Atlanta?

Percentage of money on Washington: 77% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Redskins -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.