2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Jets at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins had one of the worst offensive showings of the year against the Colts in Week 1. They’ve been better since, but only marginally against either poor or uninterested opponents. They moved the ball against the Bills, who seemed to be sleepwalking in that Thursday night affair.

It’s fair to be skeptical if the Dolphins can repeat what they did last Thursday. The Jets have a very strong pass defense, as Sauce Gardner will be able to limit Tyreek Hill. Then again, Hill isn’t doing much these days, so that’s nothing new.

The Jets have a big weakness on this side of the ball, and that would be against the run. You’d think this would be a great opportunity for the Dolphins to exploit this liability with De’Von Achane runs, but the Dolphins can’t really run all that well because of their severe offensive line issues. Something has to give in this matchup.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear which quarterback will start for the Jets. Justin Fields was concussed in Week 2 and missed last week’s contest. There’s a chance he’ll return to play Monday night, especially with one extra healing day, but concussions are weird and random. We could see Tyron Taylor again.

Either way, the Jets figure to score easily against Miami’s defense. The Dolphins have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. They’re starting someone who is worse than Storm Duck at the moment, so Garrett Wilson will have his way with this defensive backfield.

Breece Hall also figures to have a great game. The Dolphins haven’t been able to stop the run at all, with James Cook ripping through their defense with ease last Thursday. Hall had a monster game in Week 1, and we’ll see something similar Monday night.

RECAP: It’s a good thing there are two Monday night games because I have no betting interest in this contest. The one scenario I could see is if Taylor plays, but I have no interest in backing a quarterback returning from concussion. Quarterbacks in these situations often struggle in their first game back in action. Taylor, on the other hand, is healthy, and we’ll see a more favorable spread for the Jets if he gets the nod.

The other option is backing the Dolphins, and I don’t want to put any money on one of the worst teams in the NFL. Miami is so terrible that I don’t even want to side with them for zero units despite the opposing quarterback potentially returning from a concussion.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re still waiting on news about Justin Fields. We’ll have an update on Thursday.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like Justin Fields will play after he underwent two full practices. I don’t want to back a quarterback coming off a concussion, but I don’t want to lay points with the crappy Dolphins either.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Darren Waller will be making his debut for Miami, but I wouldn’t expect much. He’ll probably play 15-20 snaps and then get hurt.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Justin Fields has cleared his rushing yards prop of 45.5 in both games so far, and Miami surrenders lots of yardage to mobile quarterbacks. The best number is over 45.5 -114 at BetRivers.

We’re going to parlay the Fields rushing over (46.5), De’Von Achane over 54.5 rushing yards, and Tua Tagovailoa under 236.5 passing yards on DraftKings, which is offering a 33-percent boost. This $25 parlay pays $183. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no strong opinion on this game, and neither do the sharps. If you like the Jets, try to pay up for +3 because it’s the primary key number in the NFL. The best +3 I see is for -125 vig at Bookmaker.

LIVE BET: We won our Justin Fields prop. We’re going to do it again. The best number is over 90.5 -120 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -2.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 53% (182,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.