2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Ravens at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It was so odd to see the Lions, of all teams, have a great game plan to limit Lamar Jackson on the ground. I say this because Detroit has historically struggled against mobile quarterbacks, but Jackson couldn’t get anything going as a scrambler, though it should be noted that the Lions did get a bit lucky with some shoe-string tackles.

Part of the problem for the Ravens was that their offensive line really struggled. They allowed seven sacks, so they’ll have to shore up their protection against the Chiefs. Kansas City actually has more pressures this year than Detroit, so perhaps Chris Jones and company will be able to limit Jackson by crowding his pocket.

The Ravens will be able to counter with Derrick Henry, who will once again be looking to redeem himself for a costly fumble. Henry has a much easier matchup this week. While the Lions are first in run defense EPA, the Chiefs are somehow 30th. Cam Skattebo just trampled them, so Henry may just redeem himself.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Baltimore’s poor pass protection was the least of the team’s worries on Monday night. The Ravens couldn’t stop the Detroit rushing attack either, as they sorely missed Justin Madubuike and Kyle Van Noy.

It’s unclear if Madubuike and Van Noy will be able to play in this game, but it’s not like the Ravens have a challenging Kansas City running game to stymie. The Chiefs struggle to gain yardage on the ground unless it’s via Patrick Mahomes runs, so it’ll be up to Mahomes to once again carry the team.

The Ravens also have an injury in the secondary – Jaire Alexander has missed the past two weeks – but the Chiefs also lack the weapons to exploit any weaknesses. There’s a chance Xavier Worthy will play, but he’ll be in a harness and won’t be 100 percent. Tyquan Thornton could have a big gain or two, but that’s not very sustainable.

RECAP: The Ravens were a big disappointment Monday night, but it’s not the first time they’ve been upset at home in a September game, and it won’t be the last. They’re currently 1-2, which is exactly where they were after three games last year. Their fourth game was an utter blowout of one of the top teams in the AFC, the Bills.

Could we see a repeat of that? I think it’s certainly possible. The Chiefs have lost to two other top-six teams they’ve battled thus far, so this could be a similar result, especially if the Ravens get some of their injured players back into the lineup. Sure, Kansas City had its way with New York on Sunday night, but the Giants suck. The Ravens, despite their loss to Detroit, will provide far stiffer competition.

I don’t know if I plan on betting the Ravens yet. We’ll have to see which defenders will be available for this big game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still don’t know the statuses of the injured Ravens players. We’ll have a much better update on Saturday.

PLAYER PROPS: Travis Kelce is a shell of his former self. He isn’t as involved in the offense anymore. He hasn’t caught more than four passes in any game. And with Xavier Worthy returning, his role could be diminished even further. The best number is under 4.5 receptions -129 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens didn’t get good news on the injury report. Not only are Justin Madubuike and Kyle Van Noy out again; the Ravens could be missing Ronnie Stanley, who barely practiced this week. A couple of other defensive tackles are iffy to play as well. Evan did well to sell me on Baltimore on Friday’s show, but I can’t back the Ravens with all of these injuries:

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Ronnie Stanley news could be big, so it’ll be interesting to see if he plays. Check back around 3:45 Eastern for the latest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kyle Van Noy is out, but Ronnie Stanley will at least play. There’s also a chance Chris Jones won’t be available because he’s flying back from a funeral in Mississippi. I have no interest here, and the sharps haven’t touched this one either. The best line is -2.5 -115 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

LIVE BET: This is a recommendation from Evan, but it’s something I did Monday night. I’m betting Lamar Jackson over rushing yards because he’s behind and will be running a lot. The best number is over 65.5 -112 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -2.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Money on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 63% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 101-27 SU, 67-59 ATS (53-45 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Chiefs are 13-31 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.

Opening Line: Ravens -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 82 degrees. Light wind.