2025 NFL Picks – Week 4: Saints at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s two pieces of hate mail that responded to me in a completely opposite way:

One guy told me that I was being racist, while the other guy was complaining that I wasn’t racist. Amazing.

By the way, the first guy is an imbecile. In his demented mind, I can’t say anything negative about a black quarterback because that would be considered racist. I think he’s the true racist here because he feels the need to white knight black quarterbacks, as if they can’t defend themselves.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It’s not a surprise that the Bills have another easy matchup. One of the reasons why we bet their over win total is because they had the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL.

Josh Allen and James Cook will dominate the Saints. New Orleans has a terrible defense that is particularly poor against the pass. A big problem is that the Saints can’t generate heat on the quarterback – they have only 30 pressures through three games – so Allen will have all the time he needs to shred New Orleans’ poor secondary.

The Saints are better against the run than the pass, but they can still allow some big gains to receivers out of the backfield. Cook could thrive in that regard.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: You may have noticed that the Bills weren’t at their best defensively against the Dolphins. The reason for that was Ed Oliver and Matt Milano being out of the lineup. Oliver is a force in the trenches, while Milano is the heart and soul of the defense, so the Dolphins naturally looked functional for a change.

Oliver and Milano have had extra time to recover from their injuries, so perhaps at least one will be back in the lineup. This will be overkill in this matchup because Spencer Rattler is an inept quarterback who can only perform well in garbage time. Rattler will likely commit some turnovers, giving the Bills unneeded free points.

Having Milano on the field will matter most against Alvin Kamara. The Bills are poor versus the rush when Milano isn’t on the field, so his presence will be a big boost in defending the Saints’ best offensive player.

RECAP: We just saw the Saints get demolished at Seattle. They lost by 31 points, so even though a line of -16.5 seems daunting, it really shouldn’t be.

If you’re afraid of laying any number this high, you may change your mind after looking at this stat: Favorites between 15 and 16.5 are 16-15-1 against the spread dating back to 2010. This isn’t some amazing trend – it’s barely over .500 – but it just shows that betting numbers this highly are about a 50-50 proposition, so don’t just pass on a game because this spread seems to be too large in general.

In fact, I wonder if this spread should be even higher. I’m going to be betting the Bills, who will treat New Orleans just like the Seahawks did last week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: To go further with the numbers I brought up before about it being OK to bet large spreads, teams favored by more than 14 in the first five weeks of the season are 10-3 against the spread since 2010. It’s not a large sample size, but again, it just shows you that it’s OK to bet these large numbers.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is not the injury news we were hoping for concerning the Bills. Both Matt Milano and Ed Oliver are out, while Spencer Brown may not play after being DNP-DNP-limited. I’m dropping my unit count to two.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Not only are Ed Oliver and Matt Milano out; the Bills also won’t have Spencer Brown. This could easily still be a blowout, but I don’t want to back such a big favorite with so many key injuries. The sharps have been betting the Saints as well. If you still want to back Buffalo, take the -14 -108 available at Bookmaker because 14 is a key number. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -16.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -14.5.

Computer Model: Bills -17.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 73% (90,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 15-38 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Opening Line: Bills -14.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 66 degrees. Light wind.