By Matt McGuire. May 14, 2009.
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As I mentioned in my first 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft, early-round strategy is not emphasized nearly as much as it should be by other fantasy Web sites and experts. I have a lot of theories of how to approach the early and late rounds of fantasy football mocks, and I will share them with you over the summer.
In this edition of my fantasy mock, I went into this draft with the idea to experiment by drafting WR-WR in the first two rounds back-to-back.
A few questions we need answered before we apply this strategy in a real draft:
1. If I draft receivers with my first two picks, what will my RB corps, WR corps, and overall depth potentially look like?
2. Which running back can be my RB1 as my third round pick?
3. What value will my RB2/RB3 have on my roster after going WR-WR in the first two rounds?
4. What are the overall strengths and weaknesses of the WR-WR strategy?
I would like to mention a few things before I start the analysis of the mock draft I participated in on FantasyFootballCalculator.com, which is the best FF mock site on the Internet by miles.
First, I am drafting for a standard 12-team league (Starting Lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE). Secondly, I am approaching this draft as if touchdown passes are worth 4 points, which I feel like gives more positional balance in fantasy football. Since TD passes are worth 4 points, I am not likely to draft a quarterback in the third round after going WR-WR in the first two rounds.
Sorry for the long introduction. At the bottom of the page you can see the first 10 rounds of the fantasy draft. Here is the team I selected as I had the No. 11 pick in the first round:
Team Matt McGuire:
1.11 – Andre Johnson WR
2.02 – Randy Moss WR
3.11 – Thomas Jones RB
4.02 – Knowshon Moreno RB
5.11 – Chris Wells RB
6.02 – Matt Schuab QB
7.11 – Kellen Winslow TE
8.02 – Derrick Mason WR
9.11 – Shonn Greene RB
10.02 – Chris Chambers WR
As I analyze this mock and the WR-WR strategy, please keep in mind to not look necessarily at the particular player I drafted based on the position, but rather the strategy I employed. I am skipping the first two rounds since all I did was draft the highest-rated receiver on my board two picks in a row. Also realize if you do employ the WR-WR strategy, it is best to use it if you are picking toward the later part of the first round to maximize the value for the receiver you are picking as opposed to a top-seven or eight selection.
On to the third round…
When the third round comes to you and you examine the board, you can’t afford not to select a running back. You don’t want your RB1 to end up being Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, or Derrick Ward. Need has to be addressed here, which could potentially cause you to reach. Thomas Jones was the highest-rated back on my board at the time (knowing I could get Knowshon Moreno in the fourth round). Nineteen other running backs were selected ahead of my pick at 3.11. Thomas Jones had to be the pick here.
At 4.02, you simply aren’t getting sufficient value if I were to select a WR3, and I feel like I am going to invest too much into my WR corps. My RB corps would be likely depleted and I simply don’t like my chances going into the season. Call me crazy, but Moreno is the No. 13 RB on my board. I love that he has no talent around him in the Denver running back corps and he is an every-down back as a great receiver and blocker on third down. You don’t draft a running back at No. 12 overall if you aren’t going to give him a lot of touches. Moreno is the highest player on my overall board and running back board at the time, and he is the pick.
At this point in the mock draft, I have two WRs and two RBs. When the fifth round comes around I can pretty much invest in any position and emphasize value, but this of course can be applied to just about every strategy in fantasy football other than RB-RB-RB.
The mock snakes back to me at 5.11 and I consider all my options. Philip Rivers is the No. 2 QB on my board and Matt Schaub is the No. 6 QB on my board. I am 95-percent certain one of these players will be available to me at 6.02. I pass on a quarterback just in case I can steal a highly rated running back or receiver who is both high on my board and Team Yo’s, as he could steal one of these players from me because he has two picks before my next selection.
I determined Chris Wells is the best value for me at 5.11. The top receiver on my board at the time was Lee Evans, but there are two problems here. First, do I really want to draft my WR3 when I can add much-needed depth to my RB corps? And second, shouldn’t the addition of Terrell Owens scare me to potentially hurt Evans’ production next season?
Since I have already decided both Rivers and Schaub’s value is too good to pass up on 6.02 and I know one of these players will be available to me, I draft the highest rated running back on my board.
The Cardinals didn’t take Wells to not give him 200-plus carries per season. I think the Cardinals’ vertical passing game can open up running lanes and Wells certainly has the talent to average 4.6-5.1 yards per carry. He is a very solid RB3 in my mind and solidifies my RB corps for the next three or four rounds.
It gets back to me in the seventh round, and I am quite frankly disgusted with the talent on the board at the receiver position. Some very good receivers were taken in this round including Hines Ward, Jerricho Cotchery, Lance Moore and Santana Moss.
I have two options. Since I have my QB1 and running back corps solidified, I can either draft my WR3 or tight end (Note: I always only carry one tight end on my roster).
Kellen Winslow Jr. is the No. 4 tight end on my board. He is an extremely talented player going to a team in Tampa Bay that will install a more vertical passing offense than used in the past with Jon Gruden. They did not pay Winslow $36 million to not be an extremely productive tight end. Since Michael Clayton is the No. 2 receiver in Tampa, I expect him to put up 750-900 receiving yards and 6-9 touchdowns. I know he is somewhat of a durability risk, but I can always find a capable tight end in free agency or via trade. I also love Greg Olsen going into 2009, and before it is all said and done, he might be ahead of Winslow on my rankings.
In drafting Winslow, I have a potentially elite target at that position with high touchdown capabilities in the Tampa offense that lacks red zone targets. My roster now looks like this: QB, 3 RBs, 2 WRs, and 1 TE. At this point, I will likely target my WR3 with my next selection at 8.02.
In the eighth round, I don’t feel like I can afford to pass up on my WR3 at this point after filling out my roster over the past five rounds at other positions. Derrick Mason is the highest-rated player on my board and is the pick.
The mock snakes back to me at 9.11, and I feel like it would be smart to handcuff Thomas Jones at this point. He is looking for a new contract, and if the Jets view Shonn Greene as their starting running back, he could be a steal at this point. I personally think Greene’s talent didn’t warrant a third-round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, but I am not going to hold a grudge when it comes to fantasy potential. Darren Sproles should also get consideration in this portion of your fantasy mock because of his immense value if LaDainian Tomlinson were to have a serious injury.
With my last pick, I took the top-rated receiver on the board again, which is Chris Chambers. Let’s take a glance at my fantasy roster before I summarize my thoughts on the WR-WR strategy in this mock draft.
QB: Matt Schaub (HOU)
RB1: Thomas Jones (NYJ)
RB2: Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
RB3: Chris Wells (ARZ)
RB4: Shonn Greene (NYJ)
WR1: Andre Johnson (HOU)
WR2: Randy Moss (NE)
WR3: Derrick Mason (BAL)
WR4: Chris Chambers (SD)
TE: Kellen Winslow (TB)
Let’s review the questions we have about the WR-WR before the experimental mock draft:
1. If I draft receivers with my first two picks, what will my RB corps, WR corps, and overall depth potentially look like?
Obviously, if you draft receivers with your first two picks and you are selecting later in the first round, you will have an elite duo of fantasy receivers on your roster that you should rarely drop out of your lineup.
However, your running back corps will likely be very weak. Average draft position at FantasyFootballCalculator.com states anywhere from the top 16 to the top 20 running backs will likely be off the board by the time you are picking in the third round. This means while you were grabbing receivers, your opponents were solidifying their running back situation. You WILL get a very bad RB1, which can potentially ruin your chances over the course of an entire season. Thomas Jones as my RB1 simply disgusts me to no end, but I had no choice after taking two receivers back-to-back.
I personally feel like Knowshon Moreno is a very strong RB2, but if you don’t like him you also could have taken Kevin Smith, Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas or Larry Johnson as your RB2 if that’s one of the players you would have preferred in this scenario…and I doubt you consider any of those backs to be very strong RB2s to begin with.
After you go WR-WR, it pretty much handcuffs you into going RB-RB with your next two picks. You could risk picking Jason Witten or a quarterback in the fourth round, but if you do that, your RB2 will be simply horrible. This is a risk you would have to consider in WR-WR.
It is very important to consider the hypothetical of not drafting a RB3 as your fifth-round pick as I did. Let’s say you decide to wait to draft a running back until the seventh round to grab your RB3 and lock in on your quarterback at 6.02 as I did. This means you go with a receiver in the fifth round. Imagine that Lee Evans is the pick at 5.11. Your wide receivers now are: Andre Johnson, Randy Moss and Lee Evans. Yes, this is a deadly receiving corps, but what are your running back options in the seventh round?
My best RB3 options in the seventh round would have been Fred Jackson, Julius Jones, Willis McGahee and Darren Sproles. I personally feel like all of these players are very weak RB3s.
As we can see, going WR-WR pretty much comprises your lineup, and you are forced to make sacrifices at other positions.
2. What running back can be my RB1 as my third-round pick?
Practically speaking, the best consensus values on the board at 3.09, 3.10, 3.11, or 3.12 would be Ryan Grant, Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai and Reggie Bush if you look at average draft position. Are you comfortable with any of these backs as your RB1? Me neither. If you notice in my mock draft, none of these backs were even on the board, so you can imagine how much worse it can get (i.e. Thomas Jones)
3. What value will my RB2/RB3 have on my roster after going WR-WR in the first two rounds?
This all depends on how you value the running backs on your board. I am a big fan of Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells because I love their talent level and teams they went to, which I feel like puts them in position to be potentially strong fantasy backs next season. However, I would consider neither to be adequate RB1s.
You also have to consider what you will do in Rounds 5 and 6 if you employ the WR-WR-RB-RB strategy as I did. If we are talking about the general consensus, you will likely have a very weak RB2 and RB3 if you wait too late to miss out on value.
4. What are the overall strengths and weaknesses of the WR-WR strategy?
Strengths:
1. The WR-WR strategy gives you an elite WR tandem to start with. You could potentially have two receivers who combine for 2,900 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns.
2. You can wait until Rounds 7-9 to draft your WR. The implications of the WR-WR strategy means you have the mid rounds to address the quarterback, running back, and maybe even the tight end positions on your roster.
Weaknesses:
1. Going receiver back-to-back most likely means you are making a potentially huge hit to the running back corps on your roster. All of the top backs are off the board and you will be forced to have to take bigger risks on backs with more question marks.
2. You are forced to draft running backs in the third and fourth round, which could cause you to reach because you can’t afford to wait until the fifth round to draft your RB2.
3. Let’s say you draft your RB3 and WR3 in the fifth and sixth rounds respectively after going WR-WR-RB-RB in the first four rounds. Now, you have to wait until the seventh round to draft your starting quarterback. Are you comfortable with Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer or Matt Cassel as your QB1? I am certainly not, but you have to decide this on your own terms.
4. There might not be a large difference in fantasy points between drafting Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson in the second round, and Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe and Terrell Owens in the third round when all is said and done. If you agree with me on this, then won’t you be more apt to address running back in the first round (Brian Westbrook, Chris Johnson, LaDanian Tomlinson, Deangelo Williams) then go WR-WR in the second and third rounds? To me this makes a lot more sense as you solidify your RB1 then still have a solid receiving corps.
Verdict: Unless you love receivers and feel like you can get as much value in the third and fourth rounds for running backs as you can in Round 1, this is a terrible strategy. First of all, it just compromises your running back corps. Secondly, you can go RB-WR-WR, end up with much more value, and still have a receiving corps with high statistical upside. Third, you might have not have a capable starting quarterback and are forced to draft one later on.
I don’t see the upside in this strategy, but I encourage you to experiment with it in mock drafts before you draft for your real teams. Examine the rosters you end up with and if you are happier going WR-WR as opposed to a more conventional strategy. In the end, it isn’t my drafting team you are drafting for. You make the call.
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