By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Updated July 6, 2015
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
I’m starting a series of mock draft posts using the FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator and will be using different settings and draft positions to give us a look at how they play out. For my first mock, I went fairly mainstream with one-point PPR, 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRS, 1 TE, 1 DEF and 11 bench spots. I chose the No. 10 draft position this time.
Round 4:
4.01 Greg Olsen, CAR
4.02 Jordan Matthews, PHI
4.03 Julian Edelman, NE
4.04 Kelvin Benjamin, CAR
4.05 Lamar Miller, MIA
4.06 Andre Ellington, ARI
4.07 Golden Tate, DET
4.08 Keenan Allen, SD
4.09 Alfred Morris, WAS
4.10 Brandon Marshall, NYJ
4.11 Sammy Watkins, BUF
4.12 (48) Frank Gore, IND
I took Julian Edelman as the 39th-overall pick, and his ADP right now is 48th overall and as the 19th wide receiver. At this point, I am paying for a consistent 100 receptions and 1,000 yards receiving. We know the Patriots will be a top-5 team in plays run, and you don’t have to worry about Edelman being bogged down by a sputtering offense. He was the 16th-ranked receiver in PPR leagues last season while missing two games. I think you will have trouble not getting value from Edelman this season at his ADP, and even lower than his ADP.
I’m also pretty high on Keenan Allen bouncing back after his sophomore slump last year. He was hurting much of the season, but should be ready to go and will get some extra work as Philip Rivers’ go-to receiver while Antonio Gates sits out the first four games of the season.
Two top-notch receivers in Brandon Marshall and Sammy Watkins were drafted this round, and both will have trouble with sub-par quarterbacks at the helm. The question is, where do you take them to get value? Watkins’ ADP is the 18th receiver and 45th overall, and Marshall’s is 23rd and 55th. Here, Marshall went 46th and Watkins went 47th overall. So looking at ADP, Watkins is about right and Marshall is too early, but I’d rather have Marshall before Watkins. We know Marshall can put up numbers as long as he gets targets, but Watkins has already been a bit boom or bust and now has Rex Ryan as his coach and who knows as his quarterback.
Round 5:
5.01 Jarvis Landry, MIA
5.02 Jonathan Stewart, CAR
5.03 Martellus Bennett, CHI
5.04 Vincent Jackson, TB
5.05 DeSean Jackson, WAS
5.06 Russell Wilson, SEA
5.07 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
5.08 Amari Cooper, OAK
5.09 Jeremy Maclin, KC
5.10 Travis Kelce, KC
5.11 Joique Bell, DET
5.12 (60) Carlos Hyde, SF
I got lucky here getting Travis Kelce this late. His ADP is as the 3rd tight end and 49th-overall pick, and I got him at 58th overall. His ability after the catch sets up well with Alex Smith’s noodle-armed depth of target. He really is the only tight end I want to take a risk on this early not named Gronkowski.
Russell Wilson’s upside depends on how much more he’s allowed to throw the ball and if he can continue to put up similar rushing numbers to last year. Both of those aren’t givens with the Seahawks’ top-notch rushing offense and defense. I still love his upside with the addition of Jimmy Graham, but this feels too early. His ADP is 57th overall, and he was taken 54th here. I think you should be able to get a discount for a possible decline in rushing yards and touchdowns.
Jarvis Landry finished as the 31st-ranked wide receiver in PPR last season, and he didn’t see 60%+ snaps until after the Dolphins Week 5 bye. Over his last nine games, he caught five or more passes in each game and should be able to continue a similar pace for the entire season in 2015.
Overall, I feel like this mock went pretty well. I do think I might have been able to wait on C.J. Anderson until the second round, but there weren’t really any players I would have swapped out there. Maybe Dez Bryant/Julio Jones and then Anderson would have been slightly better if it had worked out that way. But all-in-all, I like the start of this draft.
You can check out the rest of the draft here and let me know what you think. Also, check out our Fantasy Football Rankings.
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