2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Redskins at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 6-11 ATS through three weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bills +1.5

Seahawks -7

Buccaneers +2.5

Vikings -2.5

Ouch. The public got crushed again. Not only did the publicly backed sides go 1-3; many also lost on the 49ers-Seahawks teaser. The public is now 7-14.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Colts -1

Bears -1.5

Texans -7

Falcons -6

Bengals -3.5

Bills -2.5

Not one, not two, not three, not four, but five road favorites. And the lone exception is a neutral-site favorite! Road favorites this decade have covered just 49.1 percent of the time, so keep that in mind if you want to join the public.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels didn’t quite keep up 80-percent completion pace in Week 5. In fact, he was close to a 50-percent completion rate. However, he still had a dominant performance, using his legs to pick up significant gains and completing several deep passes.

Daniels will continue to torch the opposition. This may seem like a difficult matchup if your ‘member berries are telling you that Baltimore has a strong defense, but that’s hardly the case. The Ravens are 21st in adjusted defensive EPA, as their secondary has some severe issues. Their cornerback play is poor, so Terry McLaurin and the other receivers should be able to get open for Daniels.

The Ravens are much stronger versus the run than the pass, so I wouldn’t expect huge performances from Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler. It’ll all be on Daniels’ shoulders, so it’s a good thing that he won’t see much mayhem in the backfield against the Ravens’ middle-of-the-pack pressure rate.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The strength of the Ravens is obviously their rushing attack. They battled two teams that couldn’t stop the run in the Bills and Cowboys, and were able to obliterate them as a consequence. The Bengals also struggle versus the run, but Cincinnati put so many men in the box, daring Lamar Jackson to beat them, and he did very easily.

The Redskins may decide to utilize Cincinnati’s game plan, or they’ll be trampled by Derrick Henry. They have the fourth-worst adjusted EPA run defense. They weren’t threatened in this regard last week, or even in the prior game because they established such a huge lead versus Arizona that it neutralized James Conner. Henry will have success in this contest.

The problem with stacking the box is that the secondary will be exposed more so than it already has been in the early part of the season. The Redskins have some very weak cornerbacks, so they won’t be able to keep pace with Zay Flowers.

RECAP: I’m shocked the public isn’t pounding the Redskins. This looks so easy, doesn’t it? The Redskins are 4-1, and yet they’re near-touchdown underdogs. This almost looks like a gift.

Except, the public isn’t betting on Washington. It’s about a 50-50 split for the squares with the sharps being on the Redskins. I guess people think that the Redskins can’t quite compete with a top team like the Ravens.

My line says this spread is way off. I have the Ravens favored by two, and so do the EPA numbers. However, I’m not convinced that I have the Redskins graded appropriately. They’ve battled four teams ranked 20th or worse in defense, and the one exception was the Browns. Forgive me if I’m not quite buying them yet.

That said, I’m not going to rush to bet the Ravens either. They’re coming off an emotional overtime win, so I’m not sure they’ll be fully focused, though it’s possible that Daniels will have their attention. The other danger with picking Baltimore is that if the two projected spreads I mentioned earlier are correct, then we’re giving up a ton of value. This is a pass for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A couple of key Ravens veterans – Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey – missed Wednesday’s practice, but they could easily return to practice Thursday and be fine. It’s just something to monitor for now. I’m still on the Redskins, and the sharps are as well.

PLAYER PROPS: The Ravens have allowed every single tight end they’ve played to reach at least 31 receiving yards, yet Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is only 25.5. Baltimore has played against some good tight ends, but even Mike Gesicki and Noah Gray have gotten to 31+ receiving yards. Ertz saw eight targets last week, so he’s heavily involved in the offense. The best number is over 25.5 -110 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey are questionable after being limited in practice on Thursday and Friday. I’m still leaning toward the Redskins, but probably won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey will play. I’m still leaning toward the Redskins, but not enough to bet them. The sharps have taken both sides. The best line is +7 -114 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

Will the Ravens be focused after an overtime win against a divisional opponent?

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.

Computer Model: Ravens -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The public has come in on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 75% (146,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

John Harbaugh is 15-2 SU at home vs. rookie quarterbacks.

Lamar Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 77 degrees. Light wind.