2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Bengals at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I’m still trying to figure out what Zac Taylor was thinking during overtime against the Ravens. Joe Burrow threw five touchdowns against Baltimore’s troubled secondary, so why did Taylor opt to run thrice with a running back who accumulated fewer than 50 rushing yards until that point? It’s almost like Taylor hit his head and thought Burrow was a rookie again, or he completely misread the clock and thought the field goal was the last thing he’d do in overtime. If I owned the Bengals, i’d sit Taylor down in a room with a clock and have him tell me what time it is because I’m not convinced that he’d be able to do so.

At any rate, I expect Burrow to remain hot. The Giants have a talented pass rush, but unlike Geno Smith, who took some sacks versus New York last week, Burrow is capable of releasing the ball quickly and accurately. The Giants have issues in the secondary that Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins can exploit.

The Giants are better against the run than the pass, so it’s not all bad for them on this side of the ball. The aforementioned running back who had fewer than 50 rushing yards, Chase Brown, has his work cut out for him in this matchup, but he may have the entire workload because of Zack Moss’ injury. Brown is more explosive than Moss, as he sometimes runs like he’s shot out of a cannon.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones is coming off his best performance of the year, which was shocking because he didn’t have Malik Nabers or Devin Singletary at his disposal. Despite this, Jones delivered countless strikes to Darius Slayton, all while bulldozing through Seattle’s defense as a ball-carrier.

Nabers should be back this week, which presents a problem for the Bengals. Cincinnati’s secondary is also a mess, so Nabers could go insane. We just saw Zay Flowers torch the Bengals, thanks in part to Dax Hill’s injury. Hill could be out for a while, which means the Bengals will have immense problems stopping talented receivers.

The Bengals also have well-documented issues when it comes to containing the run. Derrick Henry didn’t post great numbers last week because the Bengals stacked the box. It’s unclear if Cincinnati will do that again. If it doesn’t, rookie Tyrone Tracy could have another huge performance after dashing right through Seattle’s front seven for 127 rushing yards.

RECAP: This is do or die for the Bengals. Teams have come back from 1-4 to reach the playoffs before, but 1-5 is a tall task. This is a game Cincinnati can’t take lightly.

The Bengals should be able to demolish the Giants. New York has some serious holes in its secondary that Chase and Higgins can exploit. The Bengals also have the dynamic edge rushers to pressure Jones.

I’m usually not a fan of betting -3.5 spreads. I always say that if you take a -3.5 line, you need a great reason to do so because -3.5 hits less often than any other NFL point spread. Well, there are three great reasons. I mentioned the first, which is Cincinnati’s desperation. The second is that we get to fade a bad team coming off an upset win. And the third is that great quarterbacks tend to cover at a high rate following a defeat. Burrow is 16-7 against the spread following a loss, and I expect that to be 17-7 after this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Malik Nabers missed Wednesday’s practice with his concussion. It’s a bad sign that he’s not even limited yet, but he still has time to get there.

SATURDAY NOTES: Malik Nabers was ruled out, which is music to my ears because I would have bet the Bengals regardless.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite player prop is Darius Slayton over 49.5 receiving yards. Slayton went off last week, and he could have another great game because Cincinnati is so weak to outside receivers. The Bengals won’t even have top cornerback Dax Hill anymore, which makes things even easier for Slayton. The best number is over 49.5 -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I’m throwing the Slayton over receiving yards bet into a parlay with Zack Moss over 15.5 receiving yards, Chase Brown under 13.5 receiving yards, and Tyrone Tracy over 58.5 rushing yards. Moss is Cincinnati’s pass-catching back, and the Giants are weak to those. Brown hasn’t topped 12 receiving yards in any game this year, and he’s banged up. Tracy looked great in relief for Devin Singletary, who will be out again. FanDuel has a 30-percent profit boost, so this $25 parlay pays $332.56. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: I’m holding out hope for a -3, but I’ll be shocked if we get that spread.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for -3. There aren’t even -3.5s available anymore! The best line is -4 -110, which you can find at Bookmaker and BetRivers. The sharps haven’t touched this game. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Bengals are desperate for a win.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -5.

Computer Model: Bengals -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Tons of money on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 76% (200,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 16-7 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Bengals -5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 63 degrees. Light wind.