2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Buccaneers at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: This spread screams that Derek Carr will be sidelined. The Saints were -2.5 on the advance spread, so a 13-point loss to the Chiefs wouldn’t move the line five points. Carr suffered an oblique injury in the fourth quarter, and he’s currently scheduled to have an MRI on it. His status is unknown, but the oddsmakers believe he’ll be sidelined.

If Carr is out, it’ll either be Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler. The latter was more impressive in the preseason, but either signal-caller will have a plus matchup against the Buccaneers, who can’t defend the pass whatsoever. Kirk Cousins just threw for 500 yards on Thursday night. Cousins is obviously much better than either Haener or Rattler, but the Saints possess a couple of talented receivers who can thrive with a backup quarterback.

Alvin Kamara, conversely, isn’t expected to do much. Kamara got off to a monster start this year because of some very easy matchups, but the Buccaneers are stout against the run.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While the Buccaneers are typically great against the run, the Saints have been weak against it. They’re in the bottom three of adjusted EPA rush defense. The Chiefs were able to establish Kareem Hunt on Monday night, but I’m not so sure the Buccaneers will have the same success with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. The issue here is that Tampa run blocks so poorly that it’s difficult for them to run on anyone.

If the Buccaneers can’t run the ball in this matchup, they won’t have very many explosive plays. The Saints rank in the top 10 in pressure rate, and Tampa Bay’s offensive line hasn’t been very good since Luke Goedeke has gotten hurt. Meanwhile, Mike Evans will have to deal with Marshon Lattimore, which hasn’t been a very good matchup for him.

One player who will thrive for Tampa Bay is Chris Godwin. The Saints are very weak to slot receivers, as evidenced by what JuJu Smith-Schuster did Monday night. Godwin plays in the slot, so he should have a great performance.

RECAP: I love betting on backup quarterbacks when they play against mediocre or bad defenses. This has a cover rate above 60 percent over the past half-decade. Tampa Bay qualifies as having such a defense, ranking 22nd in adjusted EPA.

I realize that betting Haener, and Rattler, to a lesser extent, isn’t very favorable. However, the betting history favors them.

I’m going to bet a few units on the Saints. The exact unit count will be revealed once we know Carr is out for sure, and we see where the spread settles. If, however, Carr plays, I’ll be on the Buccaneers as a fade of an injured quarterback.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Spencer Rattler will start for Derek Carr this week. This would normally make me like the Saints, but New Orleans is playing off a Monday, while the Buccaneers previously played on Thursday. This is a pretty big advantage for Tampa Bay. I won’t be betting this game.

PLAYER PROPS: The Chris Godwin receiving yardage prop is so low. Godwin has generated at least 64 receiving yards in four of his five games this year, yet the prop is just 62.5. Also, the Saints have allowed so much production to slot receivers. Just look at what JuJu Smith-Schuster did last week. The best number is over 62.5 -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers won’t have their center, Graham Barton, but they’re likely getting some reinforcements back this week. It seems like Antoine Winfield, Luke Goedeke, and Antoine Winfield Jr. will all play, which is huge for them. The Saints, meanwhile, will be without yet another offensive lineman, as Lucas Patrick joins Ryan Ramczyk, Erik McCoy, and Cesar Ruiz on the sideline. That’s not an ideal situation for Spencer Rattler! I’m going to switch my pick to the Buccaneers, but I won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Buccaneers at -2.5 and -3, but not at -3.5. I’m still torn on this game. The best line is +3.5 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Saints could be playing at 110 percent for their backup quarterback.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -1.5 (Carr).

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.5.

Computer Model: Saints -2 (Carr).

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Everyone is fading Spencer Rattler.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 70% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Saints have won 18 of the last 26 meetings.

Road Team is 135-95 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Saints -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.