2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Texans at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: I ranted about the Texans offense last week, and it was yet another week of the team struggling on early downs. Bobby Slowik, for whatever reason, calls so many runs on early downs for his crappy, backup running backs, and it never works. You’d think he’d make an adjustment for the Joe Mixon injury, but he hasn’t done that.

It doesn’t sound like Mixon will be back this week, so we’re going to see more early-down carries given to Dare Ogunowale and Cam Akers. This won’t work because the Patriots are decent against the run. This will force C.J. Stroud into unfavorable passing situations. He’s thrived in those for the most part, but not so much last week after Nico Collins injured his hamstring. If Collins can’t go this week, Houston will have a diminished passing attack.

Still, it might just be enough. The Patriots have the No. 1 pass funnel defense in the NFL. They were down both safeties last week, so if that’s the case again, the Texans could have lots of success on their deep throws again, even if Collins doesn’t play.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: There are some rumblings that there might be a quarterback change this week. There are arguments for and against this. New England’s offensive line is a disaster, so Drake Maye could get killed in David Carr-type fashion. Then again, Maye has great mobility, so he’ll be able to use his legs to combat all the pressure he’ll see.

The Texans generate pressure at an average rate, so it doesn’t look like a terrible spot for Brissett/Maye, even with all the offensive line injuries. I don’t expect either quarterback to take advantage of Houston’s weakness, however, which is the secondary. The receivers just aren’t very good, to put it nicely.

Perhaps the Patriots can establish something on the ground. They run the ball well when they’re not getting blown out, and Rhamondre Stevenson looked motivated last week when Jerod Mayo threatened him with a benching. The Texans are ranked in the middle of the pack against the rush, so Stevenson will have some opportunities.

RECAP: Texans-Patriots may seem like such a lopsided matchup, but I’m not so sure. The Texans haven’t beaten anyone by more than six points all year. The metrics hate them as well. The EPA numbers say that Houston is 22nd in the NFL. This is why the EPA numbers say that this line should be Houston -4.

A big problem with the Texans is their coaching. Slowik has been a terrible play-caller, opting to run way too much on early downs with pedestrian backs. Mixon may return this week, but the Patriots have mostly been strong against the run this year. They’re much weaker to the pass, and there’s a chance Collins could be limited or sidelined with his hamstring.

There’s also a chance the Texans will be unfocused in this game. They’re coming off a big, last-second win versus the Bills. Next week, they have the 3-2 Packers. Will they concentrate against the pathetic Patriots?

I like the Patriots right now. I will love them if they make a quarterback change. This will be a three-unit bet for now, but I may increase my projected wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Houston’s injury report is staggering. Nine players missed Wednesday’s practice, including Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard. Meanwhile, the Patriots have made the switch to Drake Maye, which makes me like them more. I’m bumping this up to four units.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Dalton Schultz under last week, which looked great until Nico Collins got hurt. Schultz will be utilized more moving forward. His prop is only 29.5 despite the fact that he’s gotten to 34 receiving yards in each of the past two games. More importantly, the Patriots have allowed some massive games to tight ends. Just look at Jonnu Smith last week for example. The best number is over 29.5 -130 at ESPNBet.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps bet the Patriots down from +7 to +6.5. The Texans won’t just be down Nico Collins; they won’t have two starters in the secondary with Jimmie Ward and Kamari Lassiter ruled out. Joe Mixon might have a chance to play, but he’s listed as questionable. A couple of injuries to watch for the Patriots: Kyle Dugger was DNP-limited-limited, while Marcus Jones was limited all week. Both are key members of the secondary.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Patriots, as they brought this line down from +7 to +6.5. There are no more viable +7 lines available, unfortunately. The best line is +6.5 -104 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.

The Texans are coming off a last-second win versus the Bills, and they have to play the Packers next week.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -6.5.

Computer Model: Texans -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Free money for the public.

Percentage of money on Houston: 83% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Opening Line: Texans -7.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Chance of rain, 53 degrees. Light wind.