2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Lions at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 2: Stranger Prices. Read about how I got ripped off in Las Vegas.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Jared Goff didn’t get off to the best start this year, nearly losing to the Rams and then suffering a defeat versus the Buccaneers because of some careless mistakes. Whatever was wrong with Goff was corrected in the previous game when Goff completed all 18 of his passes in a perfect victory against the Seahawks.

Seattle has a better defense than a Dallas unit missing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. While the Cowboys still got some pressure on Justin Fields on Sunday night, they won’t have any sort of luck versus Goff because the Lions possess an elite offensive line. Goff will be kept clean for most of the afternoon, allowing Goff to find his weapons against a Dallas secondary that is missing some personnel.

Goff may actually not need to do much because the biggest advantage the Lions have on this side of the ball is their running game. The Cowboys weren’t really challenged in this regard the past two weeks, as Devin Singletary and Najee Harris ran behind beat-up offensive fronts. That won’t be the case with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL recently, but that is far from the case now. Losing Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz was crushing. Smith’s replacement, Tyler Guyton, has been a human turnstile, so this is something that greatly benefits Aidan Hutchinson.

The Cowboys could still have some success moving the ball with Dak Prescott finding CeeDee Lamb against a questionable Detroit secondary. However, the drives will be inconsistent because of all the pressure Detroit will bring.

Dallas also won’t be able to count on Rico Dowdle bailing the offense out once again. Dowdle ran surprisingly well Sunday night, but the Lions have the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL, so that won’t happen again.

RECAP: It’s almost amazing to think about how different this spread is compared to what it was last year. The Lions were +4.5 at Dallas, and now they’re -3 or -3.5 at the same location. That’s an eight-point swing! I’m not saying it’s not justified, but I wanted to note how quickly things can change.

The Lions were robbed of a victory in that game, and I think they’ll get their revenge. The Cowboys stink. They’re the eighth-worst team in net adjusted EPA. People may think they’re not bad because they just won in Pittsburgh, but that’s far from the truth. With Parsons and Lawrence sidelined, they’re outclassed at every position by the Lions, except for WR1, and even that’s close between Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

I love the idea of fading this horrible Dallas team off a win on national TV, and the sharps do as well because they’ve been betting Detroit. They must recognize that this spread is too short, which is the case per my numbers. My projected line is Detroit -5, while the EPA rankings say this should be -4.5.

The Lions are one of my top plays this week, and I’m going to lock this in now because the spread is moving to -3.5. It’s already -3.5 in many sportsbooks, but you can get -3 -115 at FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Micah Parsons missed Wednesday’s practice. Meanwhile, the Lions didn’t ave a single player out of practice. Unfortunately, locking this pick in proved to be unnecessary because there are -3 -110s available now.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: The juice is beginning to rise toward Detroit again. A move to -3.5 wouldn’t surprise me. I think what happened was that DaRon Bland practiced fully earlier in the week, but was DNP on Friday.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: The line has indeed moved to -3.5. I still like the Lions at -3.5, but at three units max.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cowboys won’t have Caelan Carson, so they’ll be missing two of their top three cornerbacks in addition to their top three edge rushers. I really don’t know how they keep this game close, barring some weird turnovers. The sharps are on the Lions, which is not a surprise. The best line current line is -3 -124 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.

Computer Model: Lions -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Lots of action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 75% (142,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Dak Prescott is 38-30 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.