2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Jaguars at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence has struggled this year, and really since last season when he began suffering a barrage of injuries. The reason for his downfall this year was his offensive line. Lawrence is poorly protected, so it’s no surprise that he just had his best performance against an injury-ravaged Indianapolis defense.

While the Colts couldn’t put any pressure on Lawrence, the Bears certainly will be able to do so. The Bears have produced 16 sacks through five games, and they’re ranked in the top 10 of pressure rate. They’ll be able to harass Lawrence, who will be forced to hurry throws into an opportunistic secondary.

If there’s one way the Jaguars can move the chains, it’s via the rushing attack with Tank Bigsby. The Bears are just mediocre versus the run, and Bigsby has almost looked like Emmitt Smith in recent games. Going back to Travis Etienne in a non-receiving role would be a huge blunder, but not one that Doug Pederson would necessarily avoid.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: While the Bears have a suffocating secondary, the Jaguars do not. Jacksonville hasn’t been able to cover anyone this year. We saw this last week when every Colts player was productive.

Whether or not Caleb Williams can take advantage of that is a different story. Like Lawrence, Williams is coming off the best performance of his season, but he’s difficult to trust because of how erratic he’s been. He has plenty of upside, but makes plenty of bone-headed decisions. His receivers will help him by getting wide open.

Williams was aided by D’Andre Swift the past two weeks, but I don’t anticipate that happening again. Swift has taken advantage of two horrible run defenses in the past couple of games, but Jacksonville is much better versus the rush, so I don’t expect much out of Swift again.

RECAP: I truly hate these 9:30 a.m. games, so I’m glad I’m not enticed to bet this one. I’m torn on this game, as there are good arguments to be made for both teams.

As with the Thursday games, I like betting the superior team in London because the inferior squad doesn’t have the preparation time to make a great game plan to take down the better foe. I’d say that’s Chicago, except the Bears have a rookie quarterback who’s still pretty inconsistent at this stage of his career. I also don’t like Chicago’s coaching staff very much.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are a mess. They beat the Colts, but Indianapolis was dealing with so many injuries. Lawrence has regressed rapidly this year, and Pederson is utterly clueless. However, the Jaguars know how to play in London better than anyone. This gives them some sort of advantage that I don’t know how to quantify. I’m going to side with Chicago, but will not be betting either side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Talented Bears safety Jaquan Brisker may not play due to a concussion. There’s sharp money coming in on the Jaguars. I’m going to change my pick, but I don’t like Jacksonville enough to bet them.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I hate D’Andre Swift as a runner, but he’s been a solid receiver out of the backfield this year. The prop for his receiving yards is only 17.5 even though he’s had at least 22 receiving yards in each of the past four games. Even better, the Jaguars have allowed a ton of receiver production to running backs. The best number is over 17.5 -115 at BetRivers.

I’m going to throw in the Swift receiving prop with D.J. Moore over 63.5 receiving yards, Rome Odunze over 37.5 receiving yards, and Caleb Williams over 233.5 passing yards. We’re basically attacking Jacksonville’s horrible secondary. The Jaguars are solid against the run, but can’t stop the pass at all, especially when it comes to defending outside receivers and running backs. This $25 parlay pays $175 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears will be without Jaquan Brisker and potentially Tyrique Stevenson, so Trevor Lawrence could have better success than initially anticipated. The sharps are betting Jacksonville.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Jaguars. They moved the line from +2.5 to -1.5. I don’t quite understand why, and I won’t be betting either side. If you like the Jaguars, you can get -1.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.

Computer Model: Bears -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Everyone is betting the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 75% (161,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Jaguars are 62-108 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 19-52 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.