2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Cardinals at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

This isn’t too bad, but I’d like to point out that when this commenter made this post, I had removed any potential units from the Raiders. So, I didn’t actually bet against his Broncos.

This may not be hate mail, but rather crazy mail:

Is this the real-life Don Tollefson? Is he angry at me that I make fun of him every week?

Now this is real hate mail:

Imagine taking anyone with a sunflower in their bio seriously at all. What a loser.

And finally, here’s something fun. I responded to this crazy lady’s post and got some feedback:

This is a preview of an impending Jerks of the Week entry for whenever I finally finish my Las Vegas series.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: “No Cookie” Jordan Love was truly bailed out by his defense last week. Love threw a horrible, underhanded interception from his own end zone that was returned for six. This was part of the reason the Packers trailed at the midway point of the game, but Xavier McKinney and the Green Bay defense helped charge the team back to victory.

This is a great matchup for Love, but then again, so were the Rams. Love, however, is another week removed from the injury he suffered in the NFL on Ice game to start the season, and this week was his original scheduled return before the Packers rushed him back early. It’s fair to expect big improvements from Love this week, especially against a defense as bad as Arizona’s.

Even if Love doesn’t improve very much, the Packers should still be able to run the ball effectively. The Cardinals have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Josh Jacobs should have another strong performance.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: As mentioned, Green Bay’s defense was primarily responsible for beating the Rams. The Packers didn’t even have Jaire Alexander, who is expected back this week. Alexander isn’t the same player he once was, but his presence will help slow down Marvin Harrison Jr., who made a huge catch during Arizona’s game-winning drive last week.

There still might be an opportunity for Kyler Murray to succeed in this game. For the NFL’s sixth-ranked defense, the Packers don’t get that much pressure on the quarterback, so Murray won’t be pressured as much as he was last week against the 49ers. This should be able to counter Alexander’s return.

James Conner, on the other hand, faces a difficult matchup. Green Bay’s run defense is much better than its pass rush. Following a rocky week 1, the Packers have clamped down on the rush pretty well, so Conner won’t find much running room.

RECAP: I promise that I’ll have some multi-unit picks for the Sunday slate, but this is another game in which I don’t have a strong opinion. The Packers have the ability to be a juggernaut when Love gets completely healthy, but we don’t know when that will be. The Packers won last week, but Love wasn’t quite his usual self. This might be the week he’s back to 100 percent, given the original timeline of his injury.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been competitive in every game of theirs with the exception of their Week 4 blowout loss to the Redskins. They have the offense to keep pace with Love, but their defense is miserable and could allow far too many points. It’d be one thing if we were getting +6, or even +7 because those are such huge key numbers, but we’re not.

I think this spread is right on the money at +5, so I don’t see any sort of edge in betting either side. I’m going to side with the Packers on the chance that Love reverts to his former self, but there’s no guarantee that’ll happen this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s notable that Christian Watson returned to practice for the Packers, albeit on a limited basis. I don’t expect him to play this week, but he could be back sooner than anticipated.

PLAYER PROPS: We backed Josh Jacobs last week, and we’ll do so again. The Cardinals are terrible against the run. They’ve allowed a rusher to accumulate at least 71 yards on the ground in every single game, save for Week 2 when they blew out the Rams. The best number is over 67.5 rushing yards -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only injury of note in this game is that Jaire Alexander may return after practicing on a limited basis all week. That would be important in slowing down Marvin Harrison Jr., though it’s unclear if Alexander will be 100 percent. I still have no strong take on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jaire Alexander will be active. There’s a bit of sharp money on the Packers, but not a substantial amount. The best line is -5.5 -110 across the board. Seriously, every single sportsbook I use has -5.5 -110 listed!

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Packers could look ahead to their game against the Texans next week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -5.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

The Cardinals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 60% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 52-36 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Rain, 54 degrees. Light wind.