2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Chargers at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

Video of the Week: If you’re a fan of Squid Game, you’ll want to watch this video. The creator of the video watched the show at 0.25x speed and noticed some things:

I did catch the 002 thing as well, and even said aloud, “Huh, that’s weird.” I’m kicking myself for not putting two and two together, or rather 002 and 002 together.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The bye week came at the right time for the Chargers. They didn’t have either tackle against the Chiefs in Week 4. Moreover, Justin Herbert was hobbling around on an ankle injury following every play. Teams often prefer byes to be later in the year, but the Chargers are a rare exception.

The Chargers figure to have both tackles back against the Broncos, which will be huge because Denver is seventh in pressure rate. Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are talented enough to keep the Denver edge rushers at bay.

While Justin Herbert will enjoy more time in the pocket than he did in Week 4, it’s unlikely that J.K. Dobbins will find much running room. Denver has one of the league’s top rush defenses, so Dobbins won’t be able to match his Weeks 1-2 production.

DENVER OFFENSE: Herbert and the tackles weren’t the only Chargers who missed action in Week 4. Joey Bosa and Derwin James were also sidelined, with James missing the game due to a one-game suspension. Bosa should be able to return this week.

Bo Nix has had his ups and downs this year, but this figures to be a down game if Bosa can return. The Chargers have two dynamic edge rushers who should be able to apply pressure on Nix. This will force Nix into tossing short, ineffective passes. This strategy will fail because any sort of negative play will ruin Denver’s drives.

The Broncos can’t exactly run the ball effectively, so that’s not a way they’ll be able to attack the Chargers. San Angeles is in the middle of the pack when it comes to rush defense, but Javonte Williams is not a very dynamic player, as his prior ACL injury sapped him of his explosiveness.

RECAP: The injury report will be crucial for the Chargers this week. They were missing so many players prior to the bye. You’d have to think that most of the players will be back from injury following the bye, but to what extent? And will Herbert be hobbling like he was in the two games prior to the week off?

I’m leaning toward the Chargers as a fade of the Broncos, who have had some misleading victories lately. They caught the Buccaneers and Jets when those teams were completely unfocused, and they were able to beat the Raiders, who were missing numerous players.

I was hoping for better line value with the Chargers because of Denver’s misleading victories, but that, unfortunately, is not the case. There’s no value at all with Chargers -3, so this is a pass for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Despite the week off, Joey Bosa still missed Wednesday’s practice. Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt were both limited. If these players can’t make it back to the lineup, I’ll switch to Denver.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Joey Bosa returned to a limited practice on Friday, so that might be good news for the Chargers, who will have Joe Alt and perhaps Rashawn Slater. The Broncos will be the team with offensive line injuries, as they won’t have their center and top two right tackles. That’s not good news for Bo Nix if Bosa plays. I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Chargers if Bosa is active.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: We’re still waiting for the Joey Bosa news. I’ll be betting the Chargers if he plays.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Joey Bosa is inactive, so I won’t be betting the Chargers. I still think they’re the right side though. The sharps took the Chargers at -2.5, but not at -3. The best line is -3 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -2.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Slight lean on the Broncos..

Percentage of money on Denver: 61% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Broncos have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Justin Herbert is 13-17 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.

Broncos are 34-18 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Chargers -2.5.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Light wind.