2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Browns at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles didn’t stand a chance against the Buccaneers prior to their bye. They were down A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson. Jalen Hurts had diminished pass protection and no viable receivers at his disposal. The result was an ugly blowout defeat.

It seems like all three offensive players will be back this week. Nothing is certain at the moment, but it’ll be surprising if at least two don’t return, and I fully expect all three to be on the field. The Eagles would have needed all hands on deck against this No. 1 Browns defense from a year ago, but Cleveland isn’t as potent defensively this season. The Browns currently rank 16th in adjusted defensive EPA. The problem is that with Myles Garrett playing through injuries to both feet, the pass rush is in the middle of the pack.

With Johnson presumably back, Hurts will have much more time against the Browns than anticipated to start the year. He’ll be able to connect with his talented receivers. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley will thrive against a Cleveland run defense that couldn’t contain Brian Robinson Jr. last week.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Most organizations would have benched Deshaun Watson already. Watson is completely broken as a quarterback. He doesn’t keep his eyes downfield when pressured, and his shoulder is so busted that it looks like he shot putting the ball. His release time is so long that he’s taking so many unnecessary sacks.

The Browns, however, have stated that they’ll continue to roll with Watson, which is a massive mistake, especially in this matchup. The Eagles have great talent on their defensive line, so they shouldn’t have much of an issue generating pressure on Watson, given the injury issues with Cleveland’s offensive line.

The Eagles have been weak to the run this year, but there’s not much of a rushing attack to be concerned with in this game. Jerome Ford isn’t getting much behind Cleveland’s battered offensive line, so Philadelphia doesn’t have to be concerned about this.

RECAP: How in the world are the Eagles favored by nine? That was my first reaction to seeing this spread. However, the problem with taking the nine entails betting on Watson. He’s a terrible quarterback. Cleveland simply is not bettable against good teams with Watson under center. I would like Cleveland if it made the correct decision and moved to Jameis Winston. Kevin Stefanski isn’t doing that, however, and he may lose the locker room in the process.

I’m going to be on the Eagles here because Watson sucks, and Philadelphia could be motivated after suffering such an embarrassing loss prior to the bye. I don’t think I’ll be betting the Eagles, however, because this spread is just too large. Not getting any key numbers with a team that hasn’t played well since Week 1 isn’t a great feeling. Then again, maybe this is just sticker shock, and betting Philadelphia is the right move.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The big news in this game is that A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson all practiced fully on Wednesday. The other big news is that Myles Garrett missed Wednesday’s practice with an Achilles. He’s been limited with foot injuries, but I believe Achilles is new.

PLAYER PROPS: A receiving yards prop of 66.5 seems absurdly low for A.J. Brown. I know he’s coming off injury, but he’s been practicing fully. The Browns have also allowed tons of production to opposing WR1s. The best number is over 66.5 -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Good news, bad news for the Browns. The good news is that Cleveland will have both of its tackles on the field for the first time all year. The bad news is that the Browns will be down numerous defensive backs. Juan Thornhill was already out, and now Jabrill Peppers, Ronnie Hickman, and potentially Denzel Ward will join him on the sideline. This is not good news for a team dealing with Philadelphia’s receiving corps. And yes, everyone on the Eagles will be back. Philadelphia doesn’t have a single player designated with injury. I’d think about betting the Eagles if the Browns didn’t get both Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin back. I’d feel like such a n00b fading the Browns in their first game with both tackles.

TEASER: As discussed on the Saturday video…

I’m going to tease the Eagles to -2.5 and Jets to +8. That opens up a middling opportunity on Buffalo -2, but I love the Jets so much that I may not take it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns will officially have both tackles on the field for the first time this year. The Eagles will also have their players back from injury. There was some sharp action on the Browns at +9.5 and +9. The best line is -8 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles have the Giants next, but they’re coming off an embarrassing loss.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -6.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Plenty of action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 7-18 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -9.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 72 degrees. Light wind.