2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Falcons at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: There were memes made of Kirk Cousins stealing people’s money when the Falcons lost their first game of the year. Think those people feel differently now? Cousins had his best performance yet as Atlanta’s quarterback on Thursday night, throwing for 500 yards against the Buccaneers in an overtime victory.

Cousins should be able to pick up where he left off in this easy matchup. The Panthers produce no pressure on opposing passers. In fact, no team generates less pressure, so Cousins will have all day to find his weapons against a secondary that can’t defend outside receivers. Seeing no pressure is huge for Cousins, who has a wide-ranging dichotomy when kept clean versus seeing heat in the pocket.

It may not even matter because Cousins can just feed Bijan Robinson. The first-round running back hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, but he’ll have an opportunity to do so in this game, especially if both of Carolina’s starting linebackers are sidelined again. Shaq Thompson is on injured reserve, while Josey Jewell’s status is up in the air.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers won’t be able to stop the Falcons, so they’ll have to beat them in a shootout. That wouldn’t have been possible with Bryce Young, but it could be with Andy Dalton under center.

Atlanta has some major defensive issues. The team ranks 25th in adjusted defense EPA. Part of the reason for this low ranking is that the Falcons generate the fifth-least pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Dalton is protected very well, so he’ll also have tons of time to find his talented receivers.

The Falcons are no better against the run. They are also fifth-worst in that regard. Chuba Hubbard has been tremendous since Dalton supplanted Young, and he could have his best game yet in this easy matchup.

RECAP: Holy cow, what an overreaction! The advance spread on this game was Atlanta -3. My rankings and the EPA numbers say this is about correct. I made this line Atlanta -2.5, and the EPA figures have that as being correct. Yet, because of last week’s two results. this spread has ballooned to -6!

Look, the Falcons were great last week, while the Panthers sucked. But the NFL changes so much every week. Prior to scoring 36 on the Buccaneers, the Falcons were outgained by 100 yards versus the Saints. And the Panthers crushed the Raiders and kept pace with the Bengals before being stymied by a dominant Chicago defense.

Despite what we saw last week, these teams are not far apart. The Falcons have needed late-game heroics in all three of their wins to avoid an 0-5 start, while the Panthers have been much better with Dalton. Atlanta is just 15th in net EPA, thanks to its 25th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 14th in offense, so unlike last week, they’ll be able to move the ball.

Moreover, the motivation favors the Panthers. They were just blown out, so they’ll be playing at their best this week. The Falcons, meanwhile, just won on national TV in overtime, so there’s bound to be a letdown, especially with a game coming up against a tougher opponent (Seattle). This is a top-three play for me this week. The Falcons, who may be unfocused, play nothing but close games, and this spread is way too inflated. The Panthers upset these Falcons at home last year, and while Cousins wasn’t the quarterback, Carolina’s offense is much better than it was last season as well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Taylor Moton, Austin Corbett, and Josey Jewell all missed Wednesday’s practice, which was disappointing to see. I don’t expect Corbett to play, but if Moton and Jewell are both sidelined, I won’t be betting five units on Carolina.

PLAYER PROPS: Drake London’s targets have increased in every single game this year, as he and Kirk Cousins had to take some time to develop chemistry. London should continue to thrive in this matchup, as Carolina has been dreadful to outside receivers all season. The best number is over 65.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: A big deal is being made of Carolina’s offensive line because Taylor Moton and Austin Corbett are out. Corbett was Carolina’s worst blocker, so his absence won’t be too impactful. Moton is great, but Yosh Nijman is a quality backup. I’m not concerned, especially in this matchup because the Falcons have the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: Chicago demolishing the Jaguars makes me feel better about the Panthers. They’re still a top play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprises on the inactives list. The sharps bet the Panthers at +6.5, but not at +6. The best line is +6 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Falcons just won on national TV, while the Panthers were blown out.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.

Computer Model: Falcons -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Easy money for the public.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 85% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Falcons have won 13 of the last 20 meetings.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.