2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Bills at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New York, home of all the crappy sports teams everyone hates because they are stupid people. “New Yawk! New Yawk! I’m from New Yawk!” Bunch of losers, especially compared to my hometown of Philadelphia, which is the best city in the world and has the best sports team of all time, my Philadelphia Eagles! New York sucks compared to Philadelphia! What do you think, guys? Am I right, or do I have to stab you in the eye with a fork until you agree with me!?

Emmitt: Thanks, Yang. The word fork really hilariousness. I learn the other day that fork are called that because of the amount of needle he have at the end of himselves. If you count the needle, you get one, two, threeve, four, five. Fork have five needle. And five are one less than four, and four sound like fork, so somebody have the idea to call this utensment a fork probably because he missed counted, and if he great at math, which real difficult because times table get real tough after one, then he probably gonna call this utensment a fivek.

Reilly: Emmitt, you miscounted the number of needles on a fork. I know this because when Mother forces me to do the dishes every night, I count the number of needles on each fork and cite people I need to get revenge on, and then I go to my room and stab voodoo dolls the same amount of times. For starters, there’s Herm Edwards, Charles Davis, Donald Trump, and Old Daddy. That’s four, so that’s one fork. One revenge fork for me.

Tollefson: Reilly, I used to have a revenge list as well. I’d sit in my basement and write down names as I smeared lipstick on my face until this rich guy who called me names in high school called and apologized. This made me realize that I had to take matters into my own hands. So, I rounded up all the girls who laughed at me in high school and enslaved them. These were my first batch of female slaves. Only two are left because the others didn’t clean and cook while naked efficiently enough, so off to the woods they went.

Reilly: Tolly, I hope they never find the bodies you buried because it would suck if my only friend went to prison for killing women. It sounds like they deserved it though. Speaking of women, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. It’s funny that you bring up slaves because I have an exclusive report citing that Aaron Rodgers has been trafficking female slaves across the border, which is why he goes to the desert so much. Roger Goodell is expected to suspended him for two games. And speaking of slaves, we have this guy who has slaves in his country despite looking like Winnie the Pooh. Sir, what’s your name? I would have done some research on you, but I have way more important things to do.

Xi Jinping: Oh bother, my name is Winnie the Xi Jinping, and I have a rumbly in my tummy. Would you happen to have a morsel of honey?

Charissa Thompson: Sorry, I’ll look later. My producers are telling me to ask you about the slaves you have in your country of China. China? Sounds made up.

Xi Jinping: Oh bother, I put those people into trains and concentration camps because not only did they steal my honey, but they stole Rabbit’s carrots, Tigger’s trampoline, and Piglet’s ham. Now, everyone has a rumbly in their tummy and everyone is sad like our pal Eeyore.

Reilly: Hey Xi, whenever I have a rumbly in my tummy, I command Mother to make me macaroni and cheese, and she obliges if I’ve done all my chores. Maybe you should have done your chores! And what kind of name is Xi, anyway? Guys, if you didn’t know, Xi is the Roman numeral for 11. I learned that in Mother’s homeschool class this week. Mother made me Student of the Week. President Camel Toe Harris, you answer all the hard questions, so do you think I’m the best at Roman numerals in this booth?

Kamala Harris: Roman numerals come from the Roman Empire. The Roman Empire was an Empire that was Roman. It was also a big empire, which is bigger than a medium empire, and much bigger than a small empire. Because when you have something big, it’s bigger than the thing that’s not big, especially when that thing is small, which is not big, or even medium. That reminds me of when I was a child and grew up in a middle-class family. If you compare that to empires, we were a middle-class empire.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, Kamuhla, however you pronounce it, and believe me, she doesn’t even know how to pronounce it, and she doesn’t even know what race she is, she says she’s Indian, then she says she’s black, next thing she’ll be Icelandish, Kamala is once again a total disgrace and a total fraud, and she thinks she knows something about empires, let me tell you, she knows nothing about empires, she knows even less about empires than that rock over there, and that rock knows nothing about empires, believe me, I talked to that rock, and he knows nothing about empires, and Kamala knows even less about empires, no one has ever seen anything like it, but Trump knows everything there is to know about empires, even the little things, but not just the little things, but the big things, because Trump knows all about the little things, unlike Kamala, who only knows little things, like that brain of hers, very microscopic, while Trump has a big brain, some say the biggest brain they’ve ever seen, I don’t know about that, but that’s what they tell me, so it must be true.

Wolfley: DONALD, THE BIGGEST BRAIN I HAVE EVER SEEN IS THIS PINK BRAIN WHO RIDES AROUND IN THIS ROBOT BODY, AND HE AND HIS FRIEND, WHO HAS CLAWS FOR HANDS, TRY TO COMBAT THESE TURTLES, WHO HAVE A RAT FOR A SENSEI.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! You’re making me jealous talking about friends because I don’t get to hang out with any. You might think it’s because no one likes me, but that’s not true. Mother says I’m so special that people are envious of me. Isn’t that right, New Daddy? Aren’t I special?

Jay Cutler: Oh yeah, you’re soooo special. You’re so special that you should be in the front seat of the short yellow bus.

Reilly: Oh, New Daddy, you’re funny because you don’t know cool things as an adult. Us cool kids like to sit in the back, even if the bus is a short one!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about transportation vehicles, Kevin. Let’s begin with the short yellow bus you mentioned, Kevin. That sounds like a perfect place for you, Kevin. Right in the back where you like it, Kevin. Let’s segue into city buses, Kevin. And speaking of segues, how about a Segway, Kevin? What do you think of airplanes, Kevin? Seems like you’d poop on a plane because of a fear of heights, Kevin. How about helicopters, Kevin? Let’s touch on trains, Kevin. Sounds like something you would have done with Old Daddy, Kevin, before Old Daddy abandoned you, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I’M GOING TO PULL A TOLLY, AND I’M GOING TO SIT IN MY BASEMENT, WRITE DOWN YOUR NAME ON THE REVENGE BOARD, AND SMEAR LIPSTICK ON MY FACE! We’ll be back after this!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: We currently don’t know if Josh Allen will start this week. Allen suffered a concussion last week, but forced his way back into the game when the Bills recovered a turnover. Allen proceeded to settle for a field goal and then bomb it from his own 3-yard line three times in a row on the ensuing possession. The Bills may be in trouble for skirting concussion protocol.

The Bills would need a clear-headed Allen for this matchup. The Jets have the second-ranked defensive EPA, which is hardly a surprise when considering the talent in their secondary. Buffalo doesn’t have any receivers capable of getting open, so this is a very lopsided matchup, especially if Khali Shakir misses action again.

The way to beat the Jets on this side of the ball is to run at them. This presents a problem because Buffalo doesn’t run very often. James Cook is a skilled back, but more so as a receiver than a rusher.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers wasn’t quite clear-headed against the Vikings in London last week. While Rodgers wasn’t concussed, he was befuddled by the opposing defense. Brian Flores threw some looks at him that confused Rodgers, forcing him into some negative plays, including a pick-six.

Rodgers has a much easier matchup in this game. Not that Sean McDermott is a poor defensive coach or anything, but the Bills are down several players to injury. Von Miller and Ed Oliver were the latest defenders to hit the injury report, and their absences really hurt the pass rush. The Bills consequently sacked C.J. Stroud only once last week, so Rodgers should have a clean pocket.

The Bills also have issues stopping the run. They rank 23rd in that regard, and they weren’t even tested very much last week when they were tasked with stopping Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale. Containing Breece Hall and Braelon Allen is a completely different story.

RECAP: In the olden days when I first began running this Web site back in 1999, there’s no way this spread would have been posted anywhere. Allen suffered a concussion versus the Texans and will have to clear protocol to play.

Regardless, I’ll be on the Jets. If Allen suits up, he’ll be in a horrible position as a quarterback returning from a concussion, which has a very poor track record of covering. If Allen is out, we get to fade Trubisky against a Jets defense ranked second in adjusted EPA. Regardless of which quarterback is under center, it’ll be difficult for Buffalo’s quarterback to get the ball to his receivers, given how great New York’s secondary is.

It must also be noted that the Bills have a dubious track record against the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Jets have given Allen fits here in recent years, and I imagine we’ll see the same thing against this Monday night.

The cherry on top is that the Jets fired Robert Saleh. Backing teams following coach firings has a great track record of success. Players will be motivated to prove that they weren’t the problem, so everyone on the Jets will be giving 110 percent.

If you have any hesitation of betting the Jets after what you saw the past two weeks, don’t be too concerned. the Jets weren’t focused versus the Broncos, and they simply ran into a superior opponent when playing against Minnesota. The injury-ravaged Bills aren’t as good, so the Jets should be able to prevail. In fact, they are my October NFL Pick of the Month.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No injury report yet. I’m hoping a +3 line appears at some point, but it’s nothing but +2.5s across the board.

SATURDAY NOTES: James Cook, Khalil Shakir and Ed Oliver have all been out of practice so far this week. Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, has been limited. I still love the Jets.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: James Cook and Khalil Shakir returned to a limited practice on Saturday, but they could be less than 100 percent after barely practicing all week.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: This spread dropped to Buffalo -1 with sharp money coming in on the Jets and the public betting Buffalo. The public crushed it this week so far, so we may see a reversal in this game. Any hope of getting +3 is gone, but I still love the Jets.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite player prop from this game is Breece Hall over 24.5 receiving yards. The Bills are very weak to pass-catching backs, and there might be a squeaky-wheel narrative with Hall, who has disappointed the past two weeks. The best number is over 24.5 -110 at BetMGM.

I’m throwing in the Hall over receiving yards prop into our same-game parlay. The other legs will be Allen Lazard over 34.5 receiving yards, Tyler Conklin over 26.5 receiving yards, and Braelon Allen over 34.5 rushing yards. The Bills are weak to slot receivers and tight ends. I also expect the Jets to be winning, so Allen will get ample work in the second half against a bad rush defense. This $25 parlay can be juiced with a 30-percent odds boost on FanDuel. It pays $397 with the odds boost. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: James Cook is out. I usually don’t pay much attention to running back injuries, but Cook is such a big part of Buffalo’s passing game, so this hurts the Bills. This is a classic pros versus public game, where the public is on the Bills, while the sharps are on the Jets. The best line is +1.5 -110 at BetMGM, FanDuel, or DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Jets just fired their head coach.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -1.5.

Computer Model: Bills -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Public on the Bills, sharps on the Jets.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 82% (316,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Bills have won 14 of the last 21 meetings.

Josh Allen is 11-8 ATS off a loss since his second season. ???

Aaron Rodgers is 130-90 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 30-20 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 39-22 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Aaron Rodgers is 5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 53 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.