WaltNFL Matchup Hub 2026 › Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills 2026 Team Report
AFC East · Bye: Week 7
Game log & recaps
Lines are the Circa line from this team's side. Opponent rank = where I had them in my power rankings in effect at kickoff. Recaps are mine, word for word.
Opponent's group in my power rankings at kickoff: Group A Group B Group C Group D Group F
Bills 36, TEXANS 31 (HOU +0.5). This was a back-and-forth thriller with big plays by both teams on both sides of the ball. The Texans forgot to run the ball in the second half and Kamari Lassiter dropped a game-sealing interception. The Texans had a chance to win at the end, but the Bills sacked C.J. Stroud twice in the red zone. 409-381 BUF, 7.9-5.2 BUF
BILLS 41, Lions 31 (BUF -5.5). The Lions repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with penalties, while the offensive line couldn't block because three linemen were sidelined. The Lions were down 27-7 and got most of their yardage in garbage time. 446-355 BUF, 6.5-5.7 BUF
BILLS 24, Chargers 16 (BUF -7). The Bills made plenty of mistakes in the first half with a James Cook fumble and two Justin Herbert interceptions, but the Chargers couldn't capitalize on them and then made mistakes in the second half. 350-348 BUF, 5.6-5.4 BUF
Patriots 29, BILLS 26 (BUF -6.5). Drake Maye lost a fumble but was otherwise back to 2025 form with his passing and rushing. This was a back-and-forth game with the Patriots scoring late to go up three and then Josh Allen, missing D.J. Moore who got hurt, throwing an interception. 405-340 NE, 6.3-5.5 BUF
Bills 37, RAMS 34 (LAR -3). The Bills led 13-7 at halftime, but this game turned into a shootout in the fourth quarter and overtime. James Cook lost a fumble in overtime, but the Rams couldn't capitalize because of a blocked field goal. The Bills then moved into field goal position because of two long Josh Allen runs, and they converted on the decisive kick. 454-436 LAR, 7.5-5.9 BUF
Bills 33, RAIDERS 30 (LV +4.5). This was a high-scoring game where both teams had leads. The Raiders were up 7-3 and 13-10, but the Bills dominated the third quarter with James Cook. The Raiders rallied back to tie the game at 23, but the Bills scored 10 points toward the end. Tre Tucker caught a deep touchdown to get the cover, but the onside kick wasn't converted. 378-345 LV, 6.2-5.4 LV
Bye week: Week 7.
Splits
| Situation | Games | Straight up | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Away | 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| As favorite | 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| As underdog | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
Average cover margin: +0.8 points per game against the Circa line.
EPA rankings
Weighted EPA per play from rbsdm.com, Weeks 2-6 (Week 1 excluded). Rank among 32 teams; #1 is best on both sides of the ball.
| Dropback | Rush | Success rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | #3 | #1 | #2 |
| Defense | #31 | #16 | #28 |
Power rankings history
| Rankings | Published | Rank | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason rankings | Sept. 2, 2026 | #3 | Group A |
| Week 2 rankings | Sept. 14, 2026 | #3 | Group A |
| Week 3 rankings | Sept. 22, 2026 | #2 | Group A |
| Week 4 rankings | Sept. 29, 2026 | #2 | Group A |
| Week 5 rankings | Oct. 6, 2026 | #2 | Group A |
| Week 6 rankings | Oct. 13, 2026 | #2 | Group A |
| Week 7 rankings | Oct. 19, 2026 | #2 | Group A |
Injury history
WR/TE
- Keon Coleman DDL 3 (in)
- D.J. Moore LDL 3 (in)
- D.J. Moore out 5
- D.J. Moore DDL 6
Int DL
- Ed Oliver out 2
- Ed Oliver DL 3 (in)
CBs
- Christian Benford DDD 4 (out)
- Christian Benford returns 5
- Dee Alford LLL 6
Key: F = Full in practice · L = Limited in practice · D = Did not practice · IR = Injured Reserve · PUP = Physically unable to perform · CE = Commissioner's Exempt List. Numbers are game weeks.
Charlie Campbell
