2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: 49ers at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Brock Purdy tried his hardest to potentially throw away a potential victory against the Panthers. He threw three interceptions in the first half alone, with one negating at least three points. Another gave three points to the Panthers. The 49ers, however, were able to overcome this and prevail by margin.

There will be no prevailing if Purdy commits three turnovers again this week. Purdy is battling a much tougher defense that clamps down over the middle of the field well, so the 49ers won’t have the same edges they enjoyed versus Carolina. On the flip side, the 49ers are one of the few teams that can deal with Myles Garrett because of Trent Williams’ presence.

Everything will go through Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. I mentioned the Browns defending the middle of the field well, so Kittle doesn’t have a great matchup. The Browns are eighth against the run, so McCaffrey won’t have much running room.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Shedeur Sanders had a rocky debut in relief of Dillon Gabriel, but he was tremendous against the Raiders. He even threw a 66-yard pass to Dylan Sampson, which was a thing of beauty. If you didn’t see it, Sanders unloaded the ball with a deep shot to the flat, which Sanders grabbed quickly and then went the distance. Wow.

Obviously, this is a joke, and Sanders was just OK in his initial start. He made some nice plays, but was also guilty of some blunders. He was intercepted and didn’t see some open receivers, but he at least didn’t drift too much in the pocket. He probably won’t drift much here either because the 49ers have severe issues generating pressure. Sanders is well protected, so he’ll have enough time to exploit San Franciso’s weaknesses over the middle of the field.

The 49ers can at least stop the run, which will be crucial in this matchup. Sanders will want to feed the ball to Quinshon Judkins as often as possible, but San Francisco’s 10th ranking against the run means that this strategy won’t be very successful.

RECAP: This spread is a bit higher than I expected it to be. I made this 49ers -4, and I know from speaking to Evan Daniel, he made it -3. Yet, the 49ers are favored by five or 5.5, so we’re seeing slight value on the Browns. We’re getting a number near six with the home team and the better defense. The Browns have also enjoyed more rest than the 49ers, who have to travel across the country on a short week.

One other thing to consider is Purdy’s decision-making. It was brutal on Monday night, and perhaps he’s not 100 percent because of his lengthy absence. If there are still some lingering effects, Cleveland’s elite defense will be able to expose them.

I’m siding with the Browns, but I can’t say I’m crazy about it. I’m definitely not going to be riding Sanders for any sort of wager, despite how amazing that touchdown pass to Sampson was.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kyle Shanahan won’t be able to orchestrate a great game plan like he did versus the Panthers because the Browns don’t have any weaknesses defensively.In the four games against top-10 defenses this year, the 49ers haven’t won by more than four on a single occasion.

SATURDAY NOTES: There may be some weather in this game, with potential snow and heavy winds. This seems to hurt the 49ers more than the Browns because Cleveland doesn’t pass all that well anyway. I’m going to end up betting Cleveland.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t had any interest in this game, outside of betting the under. The best line is +5.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on 49ers: 53% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Kyle Shanahan is 5-0 ATS after winning on Monday Night Football.

Kevin Stefanski is 15-25 ATS after a win.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Chance of snow, 34 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 20 mph.