2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Falcons at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: The demise of Kirk Cousins’ career was apparently greatly exaggerated, at least for one game. Cousins played much better than most anticipated last week, as he was able to lead the Falcons to victory. Granted, this occurred versus the Saints, but still, Cousins was an underdog and didn’t have his top receiver, and he was able to get the win.

Cousins has another easy matchup in this contest. The Jets traded away all of their defensive backs, which has rendered them inept at defending the pass. They’ve been especially poor against tight ends, so Cousins could have some consistent completions to Kyle Pitts. Darnell Mooney doesn’t have an impossible matchup either, and he showed signs of life last week as well.

Bijan Robinson, of all the players, didn’t have a strong performance against the Saints. However, New Orleans is known to have a solid run defense. The Jets do not. They’re ranked 24th in that, so Robinson figures to rebound. He’ll blast through big lanes to give the Falcons short-yardage situations for Cousins.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: For a while, it looked like Tyrod Taylor might pull off a huge upset against the Ravens last week. He engineered a touchdown drive on throws to John Metchie, giving the Jets a shocking lead at halftime. Taylor, however, couldn’t get anything going in the second half.

The Falcons have a great aerial defense, so Taylor won’t have any success in this game, outside of a potential rogue possession. Taylor is simply too limited and cannot threaten anyone downfield.

Taylor’s limitations will allow the Falcons to play closer to the line of scrimmage. This will be crucial against Breece Hall. The Falcons ordinarily struggle against the run, but with Taylor not being able to beat the Falcons downfield, Atlanta will be able to stack the box and concentrate on containing Hall.

RECAP: The Jets are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and yet we’re able to fade them for less than a field goal. This almost feels like a Black Friday special. FADE THIS GROUP F TEAM FOR JUST -2.5, ONLY THIS WEEK!

I like the Falcons a decent amount. They’re not one of my favorite plays, but they’re certainly better than the Jets. Everyone is down on the Falcons because they were blown out by the Panthers, but remember that they were jetlagged off their 11-hour flight from Germany. It was not a surprise that they played better versus the Saints. And if they won at the Saints, they can certainly win at New York. The Jets haven’t scored more than 14 points in any game since they’ve returned from their Week 9 bye, so getting to 17 shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for the Falcons against this horrible defense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m starting to worry a bit that Kirk Cousins could regress to the mean after last week’s victory. Then again, I initially thought there was a decent chance he would play closer to his 2023 level than that of 2024 because he’s a year further removed from his torn Achilles.

SATURDAY NOTES: After thinking it over, I don’t want to bet the Falcons. I don’t trust Cousins after one win, especially as a road favorite while playing outside. I also don’t trust a Raheem Morris-coached team to show up after a win.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Falcons at -2.5. I was on Atlanta earlier in the week, but backed off because I didn’t really trust Kirk Cousins or Raheem Morris. Seeing this sharp money, I have a bit of FOMO, so I’m going to bet one unit on the Falcons. The best line is -3 -105 at ESPNBet, but if you want a real sportsbook, you can find +3 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Good action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 69% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Raheem Morris is 3-8 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Rain, 42 degrees. Light wind.