2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: Jaguars at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders’ ability to have a functional offense – unlike what we saw in Kansas City prior to the bye – will depend on who’s available to play following the bye. Kolton Miller is still out, but Brock Bowers could return. Jakobi Meyers may also be traded, but if he’s not, he’ll be able to contribute as well.

The Raiders have maintained one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL since Miller went down. In fact, Andy Iskoe, who has been professionally handicapping the NFL since 1990, told us on our Wednesday show that the Raiders have the worst offensive line he’s ever seen, which is saying a lot. The Jaguars don’t have a great defense, but they can certainly generate pressure on the quarterback.

Miller’s presence will eventually help Ashton Jeanty as well, but that won’t occur until Week 10 at the earliest. The rookie running back has drawn criticism for not meeting expectations as a top-six draft pick, but how could he when he’s constantly getting hit in the backfield? Jeanty is dead last in yards before contact. The good news for him is that the Jaguars are just in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, so perhaps he’ll be able to generate some decent runs.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: If the offensive injuries weren’t enough, Maxx Crosby left the Kansas City game early prior to the bye. The Raiders were already poor defensively, so they operated as the league’s worst defensive unit after Crosby left the game.

Crosby has had extra time to heal, so he should be able to return to action. If so, he’ll have success rattling Trevor Lawrence, who has been a colossal disappointment this year. The Jaguars don’t block well, so Lawrence could be in a position to make more mistakes in this contest.

Like the Jaguars, the Raiders are ranked in the middle of the pack as far as stopping the run is concerned. Travis Etienne has cooled off following a hot start to the season, but he could be back to his September self in this matchup.

RECAP: My take on this game falls on how many players are able to return for the Raiders. Miller can’t return yet, but if Bowers and Meyers are available, the Raiders will be able to have a semi-functional offense against the league’s 20th-ranked defense, despite the severe offensive line issues. Crosby returning will obviously help the defense. However, if Meyers is traded, and Bowers still isn’t 100 percent, the Raiders probably won’t be able to move the ball at all, even against Jacksonville. And if Crosby is out, the Raiders won’t be able to stop Jacksonville at all.

I’m rooting for the Raiders to have Crosby, Bowers, and Meyers available because I would love to bet against the Jaguars again. I don’t understand what they’re doing as three-point favorites in this game if the Raiders are healthier. They’re 4-3, but they’ve gotten lucky in every win since Week 3. Nico Collins fumbled against them late in the game. The Chiefs defensive backs dropped three interceptions in the Monday night game. And Brock Purdy was playing on one leg in his failed return.

Jacksonville’s 4-1 start was a house of cards, and it was no surprise to see the Rams absolutely dismantle them in London. The Raiders are obviously nowhere near as good as the Rams, but they should be able to hang around as a home underdog and potentially win outright.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers practiced on Wednesday, but Maxx Crosby did not. We’ll have to see how the final injury report looks before making a determination with this pick.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Jaguars play the Texans after this game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -3.

Computer Model: Jaguars -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Jaguars are free money, apparently.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 83% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 68-115 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.