NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
2025 NFL Picks: 71-61-1 (-$1,170)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 2, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

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Week 7 Analysis: Another frustrating Sunday. We were close to breaking even, but we lost two of our top three plays. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Falcons, 5 units (loss): What the hell was this? Seriously. How did the Falcons no-show for a game following a loss on national TV? They already no-showed against the Panthers back in Week 3, but doing so twice in a span of six weeks is ridiculous. Raheem Morris is a complete joke of a head coach.

Giants, 3 units (loss): Any chance the Giants had of covering the spread in this game flew out the window when Cam Skattebo suffered a gruesome injury. Luckily, we were able to recoup a unit by betting the Eagles -14.5 live after that happened.

Buccaneers, 2 units (win): I’m listing the Buccaneers because we had them marked down as a five-unit pick, but then downgraded it to two units because of the Vita Vea injury. Vea was DNP on Thursday and Friday, and the sharps dragged the spread down to +3.5. All indications were that Vea would miss this game. When he was declared active, I was still skeptical about his health because there was no sharp take-back at -3.5. As it turns out, this was all completely irrelevant because Vea was fine, and the Buccaneers dominated the Saints, as initially predicted. Had we stuck with our five-unit wager, we would’ve had a winning Sunday.

Colts, 3 units (win): It was nice to not have to sweat this out in the second half. Thankfully, something went right on Sunday.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: People didn’t give Tyler Huntley much of a chance to beat the Bears, but he managed to come through to give his team its second win of the year. Huntley didn’t do anything amazing, but he was efficient and didn’t make mistakes.

Lamar Jackson will be a bit more than just efficient and mistake-free, assuming he plays. All indications are that Jackson will suit up, though there’s a possibility that the Ravens are lying again. Also, it’s unclear if Jackson will be 100 percent coming off his injury. What if he can’t run very much because of his hamstring? What if he aggravates it?

Even if Jackson is limited, the Ravens shouldn’t have much trouble scoring on the Dolphins, who are putrid against the run unless they’re battling the dumb Falcons. Derrick Henry figures to have a big game with the opposition once again distracted by his backfield partner.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins must wish that the Ravens appeared on their schedule prior to the Week 7 bye because Baltimore was missing more than half of its defensive starters then. Houston’s offense looked like the Greatest Show on Turf against the hapless Ravens, but things have since changed. Everyone not on injured reserve has returned, and the result was a brilliant defensive performance against the Bears, who could barely do anything beyond a couple of early drives.

The Dolphins had an explosive offensive showing last week, but that’s unlikely to happen again. Their offensive line is still in shambles, so the healthy Ravens should be able to capitalize on that weakness. The Falcons played with no effort, allowing De’Von Achane and the other Miami backs to run freely. The healthy Ravens won’t allow this to happen.

Another reason why the Dolphins are unlikely to perform well on this side of the ball is that their weaponry is limited. They have nothing downfield beyond Jaylen Waddle, and Baltimore’s healthy secondary should be able to limit him.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

The Ravens are obviously better than the Dolphins, and at 2-5, they can’t afford to be unfocused. They should be able to win rather easily, assuming Jackson is healthy.

Now, you know what happens when you make assumptions. I’d like to believe that Jackson will be 100 percent in his return to action, but we don’t know that. He very well could be, but I’ve voiced my concerns earlier. What if he struggles to run, or what if he aggravates the injury? He couldn’t even play this past Sunday, but now he’s magically ready, just four days later?

I’m going to bet the Ravens, but will be doing so safely. I’m going to cap this selection at two units unless we hear something overly optimistic about Jackson.

Our Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson doesn’t have an injury designation. He practiced fully all week. I’m still a bit worried that Jackson could aggravate the injury, but I’m still good with putting two units on Baltimore.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: DraftKings has a 30-percent profit boost for same-game parlays for tonight. We’re going to use Derrick Henry over 91.5 rushing yards, Keaton Mitchell ovr 14.5 rushing yards, and Mark Andrews over 2.5 receptions. This $25 parlay pays $146.25. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

PROMOS: BetMGM has a $20 no-sweat token for tonight’s game. BetRivers has a 25-percent profit boost for tonight’s game. We’re going to back Keaton Mitchell over 13.5 rushing yards at +103. FanDuel has a 30-percent profit boost, up to $50.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Everyone is back for the Ravens. The sharps haven’t bet them, but they haven’t touched the Dolphins either. The best line is -7.5 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Ravens.

The Dolphins are a terrible team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Lots of late money on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 78% (230,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Ravens -7.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Clear, 73 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: For once, the quarterback situation wasn’t to blame in a Bengals loss this year. Joe Flacco did what he could, scoring 38 points against the Jets. It wasn’t enough, however, as the Jets outscored Cincinnati by one.

Flacco should be able to repeat what he did this past Sunday. Chicago couldn’t stop a Baltimore offense piloted by Tyler Huntley. There were two primary reasons for that. First, the Bears generate no heat on the quarterback. They have 85 pressures through seven games, which is just sad. And second, Chicago was down its top three cornerbacks last week. If that happens again, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will have such an easy time getting open.

The Bengals will get something out of their rushing attack as well, though not as much as they did last week. Chase Brown has a better shot of running well with Flacco at the helm, but the Bears are better against the rush than the pass.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Like the Bears, the Bengals were down some serious talent this past Sunday. In fact, we bet the Jets over point total live when Trey Hendrickson got hurt. The Bengals are devoid of talent on this side of the ball for the most part. Hendrickson is the part that’s not devoid of talent, so when he got hurt, the Jets scored easily.

We’ll see if Hendrickson can play. If not, the Bears will have a much easier time than they did last week against a healthy Baltimore squad. Caleb Williams will have an eternity to find his receivers against Cincinnati’s shoddy secondary, as the Bengals have some miserable defensive backs starting all over their defensive backfield, aside from D.J. Turner. If Hendrickson can play, however, Cincinnati will get some pressure on Williams, who is known to hold the ball too long.

The Bears, of course, will attempt to run on the Bengals. This shouldn’t be too difficult, given that Cincinnati is dead last versus ground attacks. Breece Hall just had a monster game, so D’Andre Swift will simply continue what Hall did last week.

RECAP: This pick will be dictated by the availability of some of the injured players. We’ll have to see how Hendrickson and Chicago’s cornerbacks look in practice. This will be crucial because the opposing offense will have a huge edge versus the other team if the opponent is missing their key defensive players. Hendrickson is such a big difference-maker for Cincinnati, while cluster injuries that can be greatly exposed are never good.

I’m going to lean with the Bengals for now because I don’t think the Bears deserve to be road favorites. Three of Chicago’s four wins have come against bad teams, and two of their victories were extremely lucky, so we can safely say that the Bears are overrated. However, if Chicago gets its corners back, while the Bengals miss Hendrickson, then I will side with the visitor.

Check back later for an update on this pick!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bengals are in a rough spot. Joe Flacco didn’t practice Wednesday, and neither did Trey Hendrickson. If Jake Browning starts, I can’t back the Bengals at all. Hendrickson being sidelined makes the Bengals much less appealing as well. I may end up betting the Bears, but that would require the receivers and cornerbacks being healthy. Tyrquie Stevenson practiced on Wednesday, which was obviously a good sign, but none of the receivers practiced. We’ll have to see what the injury report looks like on Friday.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve promised not to make pick changes unless there are major injuries. That’s exactly what we have in this game. Trey Hendrickson and top Bengals linebacker are both doubtful. Joe Flacco was DNP and then limited, but back to DNP on Friday. Even if he plays, it’s unlikely that he’ll be 100 percent. The Bengals are a complete mess right now, so I’m going to bet the Bears for three units.

LOCKED IN: Joe Flacco will reportedly start, barring a setback. This has caused the line to drop to -2.5 -110, so I’m going to lock in the Bears. Flacco is dealing with a sprained AC joint, so he could certainly suffer a setback, whether it’s prior to kickoff or during the game. Flacco will be forced to keep up with the Bears, who will score easily versus a Cincinnati defense missing Trey Hendrickson. The best number is -2.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bengals won’t have Trey Hendrickson and Logan Wilson, as expected, but Joe Flacco is active, as expected. There’s sharp money on the Bears -2.5. This line has moved to -3 in most places, but you can still get -2.5 -120 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.5.

Computer Model: Bears -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Slight lean on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 60% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 49 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 7-21 heading into Week 8.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers +1.5

Cowboys +3.5

Bills -7.5

Bengals -6.5

Buccaneers -4.5

Colts -14.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Seahaws -3.5

Lions -8.5

Patriots -5.5

Chargers -10.5

Broncos +1.5

The public is back to siding with favorites for the most part.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: If Christian McCaffrey put on the Eagles-Giants tape from last week, he’d surely like what he sees. The Eagles gashed New York’s putrid run defense throughout the afternoon, even when Saquon Barkley was sidelined with a groin injury. Barkley, who hadn’t even broken a play longer than 18 yard all year, scored on a 65-yard touchdown on the second play from scrimmage.

McCaffrey is capable of running better now that George Kittle is on the field again. Kittle opens up so much for McCaffrey, who couldn’t quite take advantage of this last week because of the constant deficit to Houston’s strong defense. McCaffrey will have a much better game this week.

The 49ers’ ability to run the ball at a very efficient rate will open things up for whichever quarterback starts this week. It’s unclear if it’ll be Brock Purdy or Mac Jones, but it seemed as though Purdy was close to returning next week, so perhaps it’ll be him. If so, Purdy will have an easy time dissecting New York’s awful secondary.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants suffered a catastrophic loss last week when Cam Skattebo went down with a gruesome-looking dislocated ankle. When this happened, I placed a live bet on the Eagles -14.5 because it was clear that the Giants weren’t going to be able to hang with Philadelphia.

And yes, I’m aware that the Giants have a solid backup in Tyrone Tracy, but he doesn’t compare to what Skattebo did for the team. With a lackluster corps of receivers, the Giants needed Skattebo to serve as a versatile threat. His absence depletes the weaponry Jaxson Dart has at his disposal. Dart can still scramble, but he can’t do it all by himself.

The one hope Dart has is if the 49ers are down all of their pass rushers once again. The Texans became a great play last week – despite us having just two units on them – when it was clear that the 49ers were going to miss Bryce Huff, giving them zero talent at edge rusher. C.J. Stroud had all the time in the world, which is a luxury Dart will enjoy as well if Huff and Yetur Gross-Matos are sidelined again.

RECAP: The 49ers were an obvious fade last week, but not so much this time, even if they don’t have their defensive ends again. The difference is that the Giants, in their current state, are clearly worse than the Texans. Dart will play well with added protection, and he could win this game in that scenario, but he has less of a chance of doing so than Stroud because he lost his primary weapon. Skattebo’s absence is a huge blow for the Giants, even though running back is a largely replaceable position.

With that in mind, I will be betting the 49ers if they can get a defensive end or two back from injury. A functional pass rush will make things very difficult for a Skattebo-less Giants offense, and we know that New York’s defense won’t have a chance against McCaffrey.

Also, keep in mind that the 49ers would be in a favorable spot. They’re coming off a loss – unlike last week – and they’ll be playing in an early game on the East Coast, which is a bullish scenario for Kyle Shanahan, who covers the spread at a 60-percent rate in these situations.

I’m going to pencil in the 49ers for now, but I’ll be monitoring the injury report closely to see how functional San Francisco’s defense can be this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bryce Huff and Yetur Gross-Matos didn’t practice on Wednesday, so the 49ers aren’t off to a good start on the injury report. I want to see one of them play before I wager on them; otherwise the Giants could have an easy time scoring in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was really hoping that the 49ers would be getting some of their pass rushers back from injury because the Giants are in rough shape. They’re down two starting cornerbacks (Paulson Adebo, Cordale Flott), their top play-maker (Cam Skattebo), and an offensive lineman (Jermaine Eluemunor) on top of ther other injuries. The 49ers have no pass rush, however, so they’re tough to back in their current state.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants won’t have Jevon Holland, so they’ll be down three starting defensive backs. With Cam Skattebo sidelined as well, the Giants would be a nice fade if the 49ers had any talent starting at defensive end. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -2.5 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The 49ers are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -2.5.

Computer Model: Giants -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Some money on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 62% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Kyle Shanahan is 11-6 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Kyle Shanahan is 9-6 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Opening Line: 49ers -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Chance of rain, 59 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s a reply on X from another one of these idiots who believe that trans is real:

I’ve always maintained that anyone who blocks someone on social media has the mentality of a 12-year-old girl. Calling someone a “sniveling little retard piss baby” is something a 12-year-old would do.

As for responses for last week’s games, I got this on Facebook:

This is a salty Bengals fan who was upset that his team lost to the Jets. Did we get lucky with the Jets? Sure. I admitted as such in the Week 8 NFL Reactions Video. Trey Hendrickson getting hurt was huge for our pick. However, this was only a two-unit selection. This was one of the rare occasions in which we’ve gotten lucky this year, and none of that occurred with any four- or five-unit picks. I’d love to know how I get lucky every week when we’ve been on the losing side of every 50-50 game involving high-unit picks!

Here’s more from this guy:

He sent this at halftime of the Packers-Steelers game. Pittsburgh did, indeed, get some calls its way. But what happened when the refs missed a completely blatant offsides on a third down that changed the course of the game? Not a peep from this guy. Haters gonna hate.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: If the Falcons bring the same effort as we saw last week when they played against the Dolphins, the Patriots could score into the 50s. Atlanta put forth zero effort into the game versus Miami, routinely surrendering big plays to an injury-ravaged offense with a poor blocking unit. This is the second egg the Falcons laid since Week 3, so if I owned the team, I would have fired Raheem Morris on the spot.

The Falcons will put forth a better performance this week, but the problem is that the matchup is much tougher. Drake Maye, despite taking five sacks from Myles Garrett last week, was able to lead the team to a 31-point showing versus Cleveland’s elite defense. Maye has evolved quicker than anyone could have anticipated, and it could be argued that he’s now a top-five quarterback in the NFL. He torched the Browns with several deep throws to Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte, and he was able to use his legs to pick up a crucial big gain.

The only thing the Patriots have done wrong this year is give Rhamondre Stevenson more of a workload than TreVeyon Henderson, but there was an indication last week that this might be changing. Henderson was way more involved than he was in Week 7, and he rewarded the coaching staff with way more explosive plays than Stevenson provided. The Dolphins just ran all over the Falcons, though that may have been the result of the lackluster effort I discussed earlier.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It would have been easy to blame Atlanta’s loss to the Dolphins on the offense had the defense actually showed up. This is because Kirk Cousins started for Michael Penix Jr., and Drake London was a late scratch. Cousins wasn’t horrible considering the circumstances, but he and his receivers had numerous miscommunications. It had me wondering what Morris was doing with his team during practice all week.

It’s unclear if Penix and London will return, but considering that Morris deemed them both day-to-day, then there’s a good chance both will play this week. The Falcons will need all hands on deck versus New England’s improved defense, which is averaging about 20 pressures per game. The Falcons will need London to soak up Christian Gonzalez’s coverage so that other players can get open.

Of course, Bijan Robinson must be involved as well. The Falcons inexplicably barely gave Robinson any carries against one of the league’s worst run defenses last week. Robinson faces a tougher task this week – the Patriots are seventh against the run – but someone like Robinson is matchup-proof and can hit multiple big plays against anyone.

RECAP: I love fading overreactions, and we certainly have one in this game. The Patriots were just -2.5 in this matchup prior to the Week 8 results. But because of what transpired in Week 8, New England is now -5.5.

So, what transpired in Week 8, exactly? The Patriots blew out the Browns, but that was just a 9-7 affair at halftime before Dillon Gabriel predictably imploded. Meanwhile, the Falcons were blown out, but they didn’t try at all. The last time they laid an egg like this, they bounced back with a win and cover over the Redskins.

We’re once again going to see a better performance out of the Falcons. They’re a team that plays both up and down to their competition. While they were no-shows versus the Panthers and Dolphins, they beat the Bills by 10, traveled to Minnesota as 3.5-point underdogs and prevailed by 16, and went toe to toe with the Buccaneers in the season opener. I think they can hang with the Patriots, who have five wins over Group D or Group F teams.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Drake London and Michael Penix Jr. practiced Wednesday, albeit on a limited basis. Still, it’s better than DNPs, and so the Falcons look good as an underdog in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London don’t have injury designations, which is obviously great news for the Falcons. Atlanta looks like a strong play this week in a big rebound spot from a big embarrassing performance.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on both sides of this game, so there’s no pro edge. The best line is +4.5 -102 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -2.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Everyone thinks the Patriots are free money.

Percentage of money on New England: 72% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 50 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts continued to dominate offensively last week. Of course, they didn’t exactly have much of a challenge against the Titans. Jonathan Taylor may have broken the single-game rushing record if he were given ample carries.

The matchup against the Steelers will obviously be more difficult than what Taylor saw against Tennessee, but it’s not like Pittsburgh is this extremely stout force versus ground attacks. The Steelers rank in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, so Taylor should be able to rip off big gains on occasion in this contest.

Taylor’s tremendous running will continue to make things easy for Daniel Jones. The former Giant quarterback shouldn’t face much resistance against a Pittsburgh secondary that just allowed “No Cookie” Jordan Love to look better than both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers ever did. Love was protected well, so he was able to elude Pittsburgh’s strong pass rush for the most part. Jones also has quality blocking in front of him.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers often rely on low-scoring grinders to beat superior opponents. Think back to how many times they’ve beaten Lamar Jackson 20-17 or 16-13, for example. It seems likely, however, that they’ll have to overcome the Colts in a shootout.

This wouldn’t have been possible in prior years, but Rodgers can allow that to happen. Rodgers is obviously not the same tremendous quarterback he once was, but he’s still playing on a relatively high level this year. Rodgers will have the luxury of attacking an Indianapolis secondary missing some personnel, so he’ll be able to maintain a strong connection with DK Metcalf.

Rodgers will need to do the majority of the work because the Steelers won’t be able to count on their running game doing very much. Indianapolis is a solid 12th against the rush, so Jaylen Warren won’t find much running room.

RECAP: This didn’t quite work last week, but Mike Tomlin is often a great bet as an underdog. Tomlin is 64-37 against the spread when getting points in his career. He’s also 59-48 against the spread following a defeat. You want to back the Steelers in these situations rather than when they’re laying points or coming off a victory.

I also think this spread is a bit inflated. It’s nothing egregious, but I made the line Colts -1.5. The advance line was -2.5. And yet, it’s been bumped up to -3, based on last week’s results. I’ll take the value and side with the Steelers, though I’m not overly eager to bet on them because we’re clearly going with the inferior team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Pick change, though I’m still not betting this game. Andy Iskoe made a convincing argument for the Colts during a near-4-hour live stream:

SATURDAY NOTES: Grover Stewart, Indianapolis’ big run stuffer, was DNP on Wednesday and Thursday, but was full on Friday. On Thursday’s show, Evan and I agreed that the Colts should be on our Circa Millions card:

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Steelers are missing a couple of players with illnesses, so I wonder if the flu is circulating the locker room. The sharps bet the Colts at -3 and then other pro money came in on the Steelers +3.5, so there’s no sharp edge in this game. The best line is -3 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.

Computer Model: Colts -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 67% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 64-37 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 137-102 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 32-25 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 44-29 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Aaron Rodgers is 5-5 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 52 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I mentioned in the previous pick capsule that the Steelers allowed “No Cookie” Jordan Love to play better than Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers this past Sunday night. It’s true. Love was incredible. He got off to a slow start, but couldn’t be stopped in the second half. He completed 20 consecutive passes en route to an easy victory.

Love shouldn’t have much of a problem dealing with Carolina’s secondary. Aside from Jaycee Horn, the Panthers don’t have much going on in their defensive backfield. They are also barely getting to the quarterback, generating a meager 99 pressures through eight games. Love should have all the time he needs to dissect the Panthers.

Josh Jacobs could have a big performance as well. The Panthers were inexplicably first against the run entering Week 8, but that proved to be a completely misleading statistic because James Cook ripped through their defense with ease. Following what Cook accomplished, the Panthers’ run defense has been downgraded to 20th. Ouch!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s safe to say that we won’t get Aaron Rodgers-type quarterbacking from the Panthers this week. I don’t even know if we’re going to get Jordan Rodgers-level quarterbacking. Andy Dalton was beyond atrocious last week. Dalton has played well for the Panthers in the past, but he didn’t resemble anything close to that quarterback against the Bills.

Dalton may have to start again, unless Bryce Young can somehow magically recover from a high ankle sprain in one week. Either way, the Panthers will be quite the pickle as far as their quarterbacking is concerned, and yet, that’s not even the end of it. The Panthers suffered multiple injuries to offensive linemen versus the Bills. We’ll see if they can return to action this week. If not, Dalton or the injured Young will be in trouble against Green Bay’s fierce pass rush.

The only chance the Panthers have is turning to the running game, but that may not even work. Green Bay is an average 16th versus the rush, but if the Panthers have injuries on the offensive line, it could be difficult for Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard to find running room. Also, the Packers could be so far ahead that Carolina might not even have a chance to establish any sort of ground attack.

RECAP: The only argument I can make for not backing the Packers is that they have to battle the Eagles in a revenge game on Monday Night Football next week. They’re coming off a string of wins, so they may not be focused against the Panthers, though Carolina being 4-4 could get their attention. It’s incredibly difficult to predict player motivation, but there is a chance that the Packers will be flat.

If not, then this could easily be a massacre. In fact, it might be a massacre regardless. The Panthers are in a very tough spot. They have to start either Dalton, who is completely decrepit, or Young, who won’t be 100 percent off a high ankle sprain. Those quarterbacks will be stationed behind an offensive line with injuries. And they’ll be playing against a stellar defense that finally showed signs of life last week.

Despite the potential look-ahead situation, I’ll be betting the Packers. This line is way too low, given the disparity between these teams. It would easily be north of -14 if the Panthers were 2-6, which they would be if they hadn’t gotten so lucky in some games.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bryce Young is practicing fully, but I can’t believe he’s fully healthy just one week removed from a high ankle sprain. Three offensive linemen missed practice as well, so this could be an awful outing against Micah Parsons and Devonte Wyatt.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers will definitely be down two offensive linemen. Two others are questionable. And while Bryce Young has no injury designation, I’m not convinced that he’s healthy, given that he’s just a couple of weeks removed from a high ankle sprain.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Panthers will be down two of their questionable offensive linemen: Taylor Moton and Cade Mays. Moton is active, but will not start. The Packers look great with these injuries, but the sharps haven’t taken either side. The best line is -13 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Packers have revenge next week against the Eagles on Monday night.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -14.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -10.5.

Computer Model: Packers -12.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Decent action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 70% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 61-45 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -10.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 43 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Vikings maintained a strong defense last year, but the Lions had no issues scoring against Minnesota twice. Obviously, Detroit has the talent on this side of the ball to put up plenty of points against anyone, but the team was particularly effective against the Vikings.

The primary reason for this is how Jared Goff reacts to Brian Flores’ defense. Flores blitzes more than any coordinator in the NFL, and that’s music to Goff’s ears. Goff is tremendous against the blitz. When blitzed this year, Goff has completed 75 percent of his passes on an insane 9.2 YPA, with five touchdowns and no interceptions. His YPA when not blitzed is 7.5, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio is a very good, but not amazing (10:3). Goff is a better quarterback when blitzed, and the Vikings just feed into it.

Oh, and then there’s the matter of the running game. The Vikings just surrendered about 110 rushing yards to Kimani Vidal. They’ve been leaky against the run all year. And yet, they’ve yet to battle Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. What could possibly happen?

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I loved the Vikings as a Super Bowl sleeper heading into the year. One of the reasons for this was all the improvements they made to the offensive line. Not only were they adding three blockers; they were also getting Christian Darrisaw back from injury. The tremendous blocking would give J.J. McCarthy a great chance to consistently connect with his talented play-makers.

Well, things have gone awry, and it’s because of why I loved the Vikings in the first place. Their offensive line has been in shambles because of injuries. Darrisaw and talented right tackle Brian O’Neill have missed a combined six games. New center Ryan Kelly has barely played. Last week, the Vikings were missing all three players – Darrisaw started, but left the game early – so Carson Wentz had no chance.

The Vikings will surely be moving back to McCarthy in this game, but if the blockers don’t return from injury, it won’t matter. Detroit’s defensive line is just way too good to not take advantage of this liability.

RECAP: Assuming the Vikings don’t get two of their offensive linemen back from injury, this should be an easy cover for the Lions, even at over a touchdown. There are just way too many advantages in their favor. Goff can dissect a blitzing defense with ease. The running game will trample over Minnesota’s soft ground defense. And the Minnesota blocking won’t hold up well against Detroit’s defensive front.

Oh, and then there’s the matter of the Lions coming off a bye. Not every team benefits from a week off, but Dan Campbell should be 4-0 against the spread following a regular-season bye. He’s actually 3-1, but the one loss was the infamous game where Jamaal Williams fumbled at the goal line to ruin a potential upset win.

This should be a huge play on Detroit, unless the Vikings suddenly get a lot healthier up front. And even then, the Lions seem to be way too strong for them. The Lions simply seem way too easy at -8.5. My numbers say this spread should be -11.5, and the computer model has this projected at -13!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Unfortunately, I can’t be as high on the Lions anymore because Christian Darrisaw practiced fully, while Brian O’Neill was limited on Wednesday. I assumed the Vikings would have the same horrible offensive line conditions as Thursday night, but that’s not the case. I still like the Lions, but not for nearly as much.

SATURDAY NOTES: I dropped my unit count on the Lions because Christian Darrisaw was full in practice on Wednesday. However, he was DNP on Thursday and limited Friday, and he’s now listed as questionable. Brian O’Neill doesn’t have an injury designation, while Andrew Van Ginkel is questionable after being full in practice all week. I suspect that all three may play, but there’s no way of knowing if they’re going to be healthy. In fact, I would bet that they won’t be 100 percent. I’m going to split the difference and move this to four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Vikings will have Andrew Van Ginkel, Christian Darrisaw, and Brian O’Neill back this week. However, given that they’re all just returning from injury, I’m not sold that they’re going to be 100 percent. We saw this with the Chargers struggling with their players returning in Week 7, and then playing much better the following week. The sharps agree, betting the Lions on Sunday morning. The best line is -9.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.5.

Computer Model: Lions -13.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 87% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Lions have won the last 5 meetings.

Opening Line: Lions -7.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: A week made a huge difference for both of these teams. The Texans looked terrible a couple of Monday nights ago for multiple reasons, one of which was their offensive line going up against Seattle’s No. 2 pass rush. C.J. Stroud didn’t stand a chance. Conversely, Stroud was great just six days later because he battled a San Francisco defense with no pass rush whatsoever.

Unfortunately for Stroud, he’ll be handicapped by poor blocking again. Remember how I said the Seahawks were second in the league in pass rush? Well, the Broncos are No. 1. Denver has a colossal mismatch in the trenches in this game.

The one piece of good news for the Texans is that they won’t have to deal with Patrick Surtain II. The elite cornerback is sidelined, so if Nico Collins can return from his concussion, he’ll be able to get open. Of course, Collins going off would require Stroud to have time in the pocket, which would be a shocking turn of events.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos looked a million times better this past Sunday than they had in prior weeks as well. They barely beat the likes of the Jets and Giants because they were exhausted after touring the globe. They were able to rest at home versus the Cowboys, and they responded by dismantling Dallas.

It’s always unclear how Bo Nix will perform. He sometimes dinks and dunks, but he’ll occasionally have a great passing performance. We saw him thrive against the Bengals and Cowboys, for example. Then again, both teams have woeful defenses. The Texans obviously do not. They have an elite aerial defense, so they’ll be able to pressure Nix and smother his receivers.

The Texans are worse against the run than the pass, however, so the Broncos may have an opportunity to do some damage on the ground. Houston is just 18th versus the rush, so perhaps R.J. Harvey will hit some big plays again.

RECAP: This should be a tight, defensive battle. I’m not expecting nearly as much from Stroud as we saw last week. Then again, Nix could struggle against Houston’s elite pass defense. Meanwhile, both defenses have slight weaknesses. Surtain being out means Collins could have a good game. Meanwhile, the Texans are slightly subpar versus the run, which should mean good things for Harvey and J.K. Dobbins.

Furthermore, neither team is in a more favorable spot than the other – they’re both coming off wins as short favorites – and neither team has a look-ahead spot either. This is a difficult game to handicap.

Provided we see nothing from the injury report, I’m going to side with the Broncos. In a defensive grinder like this, a single point – or 1.5, in this instance – can make all the difference.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still have no strong take on this game – just a lean toward the Broncos.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve said that I will limit my changes to one per week unless there are major injuries. I’m going to use my change here because I really like the Broncos. They just have such a big mismatch in the trenches. Just look at the games the Texans won and lost. Every time they’ve battled an opponent with a bad pass rush, they’ve performed well. Whenever they’ve confronted a great pass rush, they’ve folded. Also, the Broncos have been impressive this year if you exclude Week 1 (because Sean Payton always sucks in Week 1) and the two jetlag games.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is another game with mixed sharp action. The sharps bet the Texans at -1.5 and -2, but then came back on the Broncos at +2.5 and possibly some +3s with paid vig. The move to -2.5 may have been a phantom line shift to get a +3 -125, or something of that nature. The best line is +2 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.5.

Computer Model: Texans -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Lots of bets on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 83% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

Video of the Week: Whatever you do, don’t watch the Super Bowl with your Swiftie girlfriend:

Actually, don’t even date a Swiftie, for that matter.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: If you think the Chargers looked much better offensively in their Thursday night victory over the Vikings than they did in several of their previous games, you’re not crazy. The Chargers welcomed back Joe Alt, who made a huge difference in Justin Herbert’s protection. Herbert had no time in the pocket without either of his tackles, so Alt’s presence was enormous.

I’m not even sure if Alt would be necessary for this game, but his presence can’t hurt. I say this because the Titans have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. They average just 12.9 pressures per game, and they may not have Jeffery Simmons, who was absent last week. Simmons has about a quarter of the team’s pressures, so if he’s out again, Herbert will have all the time in the world to locate his talented receivers against a poor secondary.

Herbert will also be able to lean on Kimani Vidal again. Vidal eclipsed the century mark last week and could do so again. The Titans have the fifth-worst run defense in the NFL.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Alt wasn’t the only Charger to return against the Vikings. Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman were also welcomed back to the field. Anyone observing the box scores may have noticed that Mack and Perryman also played the prior week, but Mack was on the field for just 10 snaps, while Perryman struggled in his first game back to action.

What we saw from the two key defenders in Week 8 was night and day compared to Week 7. Mack played a high percentage of snaps and was able to accumulate five pressures. He and the other Charger pass rushers will make life difficult for Cam Ward, who has taken more sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL.

Perryman, meanwhile, will help shut down the run. Perryman was far better on Thursday night, and he’ll be able to help a Charger run defense that was reeling a couple of weeks ago. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears won’t generate much yardage.

RECAP: This is a completely lopsided affair. The Chargers, now with Alt, Mack, and Perryman back on the field, are one of the better teams in the NFL. The Titans, conversely, are the worst team in the NFL. They can’t throw the ball. They can’t run the ball. They can’t block. They can’t get to the quarterback. They can’t stop the run. They can’t stop the pass. Their best player is injured. They have no head coach. They have no offensive line coach. Other than that, pretty, pretty good.

I’ve been writing about how the Titans have basically been a money printing machine. The only spread they’ve definitively covered this year was against the Cardinals in that insane game that featured the dropped ball prior to the goal line and the interception kicked into the end zone. Tennessee also maybe covered in Week 1, depending on what number people had. Otherwise, this team has been absolute garbage, and we should continue to bet against them.

The Chargers, meanwhile, have a habit of dismantling bad teams like this. It didn’t happen against the Giants in Week 4 because Alt got hurt on the eighth play of the game, and it didn’t happen a couple of weeks later versus the Dolphins because Alt was still out (plus, the Chargers blew a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter.) However, now that the Chargers are healthy, they shouldn’t have any issues squashing the Titans.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Chargers still seem like a great play even though the line went against them on Wednesday. I don’t know why that is, but I still love them to cover the spread.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jeffery Simmons, Calvin Ridley, and Xavier Woods are all declared out, so the Titans, who are already awful, will be even worse than awful once again because of these injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps appeared to be on the Titans early in the week, but this may have been phantom line movement because the sharps have come in on the Chargers on Sunday morning. Most of the sportsbooks have moved the line to -10, but you can still somehow get -9.5 -105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -10.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -7.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -11.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 92% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -10.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 48 degrees. Light wind.