2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: Panthers at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I mentioned in the previous pick capsule that the Steelers allowed “No Cookie” Jordan Love to play better than Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers this past Sunday night. It’s true. Love was incredible. He got off to a slow start, but couldn’t be stopped in the second half. He completed 20 consecutive passes en route to an easy victory.

Love shouldn’t have much of a problem dealing with Carolina’s secondary. Aside from Jaycee Horn, the Panthers don’t have much going on in their defensive backfield. They are also barely getting to the quarterback, generating a meager 99 pressures through eight games. Love should have all the time he needs to dissect the Panthers.

Josh Jacobs could have a big performance as well. The Panthers were inexplicably first against the run entering Week 8, but that proved to be a completely misleading statistic because James Cook ripped through their defense with ease. Following what Cook accomplished, the Panthers’ run defense has been downgraded to 20th. Ouch!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s safe to say that we won’t get Aaron Rodgers-type quarterbacking from the Panthers this week. I don’t even know if we’re going to get Jordan Rodgers-level quarterbacking. Andy Dalton was beyond atrocious last week. Dalton has played well for the Panthers in the past, but he didn’t resemble anything close to that quarterback against the Bills.

Dalton may have to start again, unless Bryce Young can somehow magically recover from a high ankle sprain in one week. Either way, the Panthers will be quite the pickle as far as their quarterbacking is concerned, and yet, that’s not even the end of it. The Panthers suffered multiple injuries to offensive linemen versus the Bills. We’ll see if they can return to action this week. If not, Dalton or the injured Young will be in trouble against Green Bay’s fierce pass rush.

The only chance the Panthers have is turning to the running game, but that may not even work. Green Bay is an average 16th versus the rush, but if the Panthers have injuries on the offensive line, it could be difficult for Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard to find running room. Also, the Packers could be so far ahead that Carolina might not even have a chance to establish any sort of ground attack.

RECAP: The only argument I can make for not backing the Packers is that they have to battle the Eagles in a revenge game on Monday Night Football next week. They’re coming off a string of wins, so they may not be focused against the Panthers, though Carolina being 4-4 could get their attention. It’s incredibly difficult to predict player motivation, but there is a chance that the Packers will be flat.

If not, then this could easily be a massacre. In fact, it might be a massacre regardless. The Panthers are in a very tough spot. They have to start either Dalton, who is completely decrepit, or Young, who won’t be 100 percent off a high ankle sprain. Those quarterbacks will be stationed behind an offensive line with injuries. And they’ll be playing against a stellar defense that finally showed signs of life last week.

Despite the potential look-ahead situation, I’ll be betting the Packers. This line is way too low, given the disparity between these teams. It would easily be north of -14 if the Panthers were 2-6, which they would be if they hadn’t gotten so lucky in some games.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bryce Young is practicing fully, but I can’t believe he’s fully healthy just one week removed from a high ankle sprain. Three offensive linemen missed practice as well, so this could be an awful outing against Micah Parsons and Devonte Wyatt.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Packers have revenge next week against the Eagles on Monday night.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -14.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -10.5.

Computer Model: Packers -12.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Decent action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 71% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 61-45 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -10.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .