2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: Chiefs at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions in the opening half last week, but even though only one was really his fault, we can say that he bounced back with a nearly flawless second half. Mahomes has been hot ever since a slow start to the season. His protection has improved tremendously from last year, while Rashee Rice’s return from suspension has enhanced his weaponry to the levels that we haven’t seen since the Tyreek Hill days.

The Bills spent resources in the offseason to bolster their pass rush in order to defeat Mahomes. They signed Joey Bosa and spent multiple draft picks on defensive linemen, and while this would have worked tremendously last year when the Chiefs couldn’t block at all, I’m not so sure the Bills have the solution. Kansas City is protecting Mahomes very well, and I don’t see why things would change.

Instead of pressuring Mahomes, the Bills need to worry about stopping the run. Isiah Pacheco has looked more like his former self recently, which is not good news for a front seven that has historically been far worse against the run when Matt Milano isn’t in the lineup. Milano didn’t play last week, so even if he’s able to return for this game, he may not be 100 percent.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Chiefs will also need to focus on stopping the run. This has been difficult for them, as they’ve ranked slightly below average this season. This does not bode well for Kansas City’s defense because of what we saw from James Cook last week. Cook breezed through Carolina’s defense with ease even though the Panthers were ranked No. 1 versus ground attacks entering the game.

I don’t need to tell you that Josh Allen will feed off of Cook’s great running. Allen will pick up some yards on the ground himself, but he’ll also be in a position where he’ll be able to target his many receiving options. The Chiefs have done a good job of clamping down on tight ends, so it probably won’t be Dalton Kincaid. However, Allen will probably make the best use of Keon Coleman or Khalil Shakir. The latter caught a touchdown in the previous game.

The Chiefs will try to disrupt this by placing heavy heat on Allen. They have some players who can get to the quarterback, but they’re averaging about 17.4 pressures per game, which isn’t exactly going to cut it against a mobile quarterback who is protected well.

RECAP: The Bills have built their team to take down the Chiefs. This is why the Bills always win this matchup in the regular season, while the Chiefs ultimately get revenge when it matters the most.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Chiefs buck this trend this year. They look like the best team in the NFL right now. Their offense is tremendous right now, while the defense has improved following a slow start. The Bills, meanwhile, have several injuries in the interior of their defense. Milano’s absence or limitation would be enormous. Buffalo is a team that has played just one great game since Week 2, and really only nine great quarters all year – and eight of them have come against the Jets and Panthers. The Chiefs, conversely, have played much better football as of late.

I’m going to take the Chiefs, but I don’t view this as a great betting opportunity. This spread is right where it should be, and this is a 50-50 game in a sense. I view it as more 55-45 in favor of Kansas City, so that will be the selection heading into this latest clash of AFC front-runners.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: One thing I missed is that Isiah Pacheco will be out, but that doesn’t make a difference. Someone who does make a difference is Matt Milano, who practiced fully. However, Milano may not be healthy in his first game back from injury. Meanwhile, DaQuan Jones didn’t practice, which is a big deal because Ed Oliver will be out as well.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.5.

Computer Model: Bills -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 59% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 105-28 SU, 71-60 ATS (57-46 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Bills are 33-44 ATS in their last 77 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: .