2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: Chargers at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

Video of the Week: Whatever you do, don’t watch the Super Bowl with your Swiftie girlfriend:

Actually, don’t even date a Swiftie, for that matter.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: If you think the Chargers looked much better offensively in their Thursday night victory over the Vikings than they did in several of their previous games, you’re not crazy. The Chargers welcomed back Joe Alt, who made a huge difference in Justin Herbert’s protection. Herbert had no time in the pocket without either of his tackles, so Alt’s presence was enormous.

I’m not even sure if Alt would be necessary for this game, but his presence can’t hurt. I say this because the Titans have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. They average just 12.9 pressures per game, and they may not have Jeffery Simmons, who was absent last week. Simmons has about a quarter of the team’s pressures, so if he’s out again, Herbert will have all the time in the world to locate his talented receivers against a poor secondary.

Herbert will also be able to lean on Kimani Vidal again. Vidal eclipsed the century mark last week and could do so again. The Titans have the fifth-worst run defense in the NFL.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Alt wasn’t the only Charger to return against the Vikings. Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman were also welcomed back to the field. Anyone observing the box scores may have noticed that Mack and Perryman also played the prior week, but Mack was on the field for just 10 snaps, while Perryman struggled in his first game back to action.

What we saw from the two key defenders in Week 8 was night and day compared to Week 7. Mack played a high percentage of snaps and was able to accumulate five pressures. He and the other Charger pass rushers will make life difficult for Cam Ward, who has taken more sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL.

Perryman, meanwhile, will help shut down the run. Perryman was far better on Thursday night, and he’ll be able to help a Charger run defense that was reeling a couple of weeks ago. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears won’t generate much yardage.

RECAP: This is a completely lopsided affair. The Chargers, now with Alt, Mack, and Perryman back on the field, are one of the better teams in the NFL. The Titans, conversely, are the worst team in the NFL. They can’t throw the ball. They can’t run the ball. They can’t block. They can’t get to the quarterback. They can’t stop the run. They can’t stop the pass. Their best player is injured. They have no head coach. They have no offensive line coach. Other than that, pretty, pretty good.

I’ve been writing about how the Titans have basically been a money printing machine. The only spread they’ve definitively covered this year was against the Cardinals in that insane game that featured the dropped ball prior to the goal line and the interception kicked into the end zone. Tennessee also maybe covered in Week 1, depending on what number people had. Otherwise, this team has been absolute garbage, and we should continue to bet against them.

The Chargers, meanwhile, have a habit of dismantling bad teams like this. It didn’t happen against the Giants in Week 4 because Alt got hurt on the eighth play of the game, and it didn’t happen a couple of weeks later versus the Dolphins because Alt was still out (plus, the Chargers blew a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter.) However, now that the Chargers are healthy, they shouldn’t have any issues squashing the Titans.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Chargers still seem like a great play even though the line went against them on Wednesday. I don’t know why that is, but I still love them to cover the spread.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -10.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -7.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -11.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 92% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Opening Line: Chargers -10.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .