2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: Broncos at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: A week made a huge difference for both of these teams. The Texans looked terrible a couple of Monday nights ago for multiple reasons, one of which was their offensive line going up against Seattle’s No. 2 pass rush. C.J. Stroud didn’t stand a chance. Conversely, Stroud was great just six days later because he battled a San Francisco defense with no pass rush whatsoever.

Unfortunately for Stroud, he’ll be handicapped by poor blocking again. Remember how I said the Seahawks were second in the league in pass rush? Well, the Broncos are No. 1. Denver has a colossal mismatch in the trenches in this game.

The one piece of good news for the Texans is that they won’t have to deal with Patrick Surtain II. The elite cornerback is sidelined, so if Nico Collins can return from his concussion, he’ll be able to get open. Of course, Collins going off would require Stroud to have time in the pocket, which would be a shocking turn of events.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos looked a million times better this past Sunday than they had in prior weeks as well. They barely beat the likes of the Jets and Giants because they were exhausted after touring the globe. They were able to rest at home versus the Cowboys, and they responded by dismantling Dallas.

It’s always unclear how Bo Nix will perform. He sometimes dinks and dunks, but he’ll occasionally have a great passing performance. We saw him thrive against the Bengals and Cowboys, for example. Then again, both teams have woeful defenses. The Texans obviously do not. They have an elite aerial defense, so they’ll be able to pressure Nix and smother his receivers.

The Texans are worse against the run than the pass, however, so the Broncos may have an opportunity to do some damage on the ground. Houston is just 18th versus the rush, so perhaps R.J. Harvey will hit some big plays again.

RECAP: This should be a tight, defensive battle. I’m not expecting nearly as much from Stroud as we saw last week. Then again, Nix could struggle against Houston’s elite pass defense. Meanwhile, both defenses have slight weaknesses. Surtain being out means Collins could have a good game. Meanwhile, the Texans are slightly subpar versus the run, which should mean good things for Harvey and J.K. Dobbins.

Furthermore, neither team is in a more favorable spot than the other – they’re both coming off wins as short favorites – and neither team has a look-ahead spot either. This is a difficult game to handicap.

Provided we see nothing from the injury report, I’m going to side with the Broncos. In a defensive grinder like this, a single point – or 1.5, in this instance – can make all the difference.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still have no strong take on this game – just a lean toward the Broncos.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.5.

Computer Model: Texans -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Lots of bets on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 87% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Dome.