2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: Ravens at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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Week 7 Analysis: Another frustrating Sunday. We were close to breaking even, but we lost two of our top three plays. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Falcons, 5 units (loss): What the hell was this? Seriously. How did the Falcons no-show for a game following a loss on national TV? They already no-showed against the Panthers back in Week 3, but doing so twice in a span of six weeks is ridiculous. Raheem Morris is a complete joke of a head coach.

Giants, 3 units (loss): Any chance the Giants had of covering the spread in this game flew out the window when Cam Skattebo suffered a gruesome injury. Luckily, we were able to recoup a unit by betting the Eagles -14.5 live after that happened.

Buccaneers, 2 units (win): I’m listing the Buccaneers because we had them marked down as a five-unit pick, but then downgraded it to two units because of the Vita Vea injury. Vea was DNP on Thursday and Friday, and the sharps dragged the spread down to +3.5. All indications were that Vea would miss this game. When he was declared active, I was still skeptical about his health because there was no sharp take-back at -3.5. As it turns out, this was all completely irrelevant because Vea was fine, and the Buccaneers dominated the Saints, as initially predicted. Had we stuck with our five-unit wager, we would’ve had a winning Sunday.

Colts, 3 units (win): It was nice to not have to sweat this out in the second half. Thankfully, something went right on Sunday.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: People didn’t give Tyler Huntley much of a chance to beat the Bears, but he managed to come through to give his team its second win of the year. Huntley didn’t do anything amazing, but he was efficient and didn’t make mistakes.

Lamar Jackson will be a bit more than just efficient and mistake-free, assuming he plays. All indications are that Jackson will suit up, though there’s a possibility that the Ravens are lying again. Also, it’s unclear if Jackson will be 100 percent coming off his injury. What if he can’t run very much because of his hamstring? What if he aggravates it?

Even if Jackson is limited, the Ravens shouldn’t have much trouble scoring on the Dolphins, who are putrid against the run unless they’re battling the dumb Falcons. Derrick Henry figures to have a big game with the opposition once again distracted by his backfield partner.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins must wish that the Ravens appeared on their schedule prior to the Week 7 bye because Baltimore was missing more than half of its defensive starters then. Houston’s offense looked like the Greatest Show on Turf against the hapless Ravens, but things have since changed. Everyone not on injured reserve has returned, and the result was a brilliant defensive performance against the Bears, who could barely do anything beyond a couple of early drives.

The Dolphins had an explosive offensive showing last week, but that’s unlikely to happen again. Their offensive line is still in shambles, so the healthy Ravens should be able to capitalize on that weakness. The Falcons played with no effort, allowing De’Von Achane and the other Miami backs to run freely. The healthy Ravens won’t allow this to happen.

Another reason why the Dolphins are unlikely to perform well on this side of the ball is that their weaponry is limited. They have nothing downfield beyond Jaylen Waddle, and Baltimore’s healthy secondary should be able to limit him.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

The Ravens are obviously better than the Dolphins, and at 2-5, they can’t afford to be unfocused. They should be able to win rather easily, assuming Jackson is healthy.

Now, you know what happens when you make assumptions. I’d like to believe that Jackson will be 100 percent in his return to action, but we don’t know that. He very well could be, but I’ve voiced my concerns earlier. What if he struggles to run, or what if he aggravates the injury? He couldn’t even play this past Sunday, but now he’s magically ready, just four days later?

I’m going to bet the Ravens, but will be doing so safely. I’m going to cap this selection at two units unless we hear something overly optimistic about Jackson.

Our Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson doesn’t have an injury designation. He practiced fully all week. I’m still a bit worried that Jackson could aggravate the injury, but I’m still good with putting two units on Baltimore.

The Motivation. Edge: Ravens.

The Dolphins are a terrible team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Not as lopsided as I thought.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 66% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Opening Line: Ravens -7.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Clear, 73 degrees. Light wind.