2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: Colts at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts continued to dominate offensively last week. Of course, they didn’t exactly have much of a challenge against the Titans. Jonathan Taylor may have broken the single-game rushing record if he were given ample carries.

The matchup against the Steelers will obviously be more difficult than what Taylor saw against Tennessee, but it’s not like Pittsburgh is this extremely stout force versus ground attacks. The Steelers rank in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, so Taylor should be able to rip off big gains on occasion in this contest.

Taylor’s tremendous running will continue to make things easy for Daniel Jones. The former Giant quarterback shouldn’t face much resistance against a Pittsburgh secondary that just allowed “No Cookie” Jordan Love to look better than both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers ever did. Love was protected well, so he was able to elude Pittsburgh’s strong pass rush for the most part. Jones also has quality blocking in front of him.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers often rely on low-scoring grinders to beat superior opponents. Think back to how many times they’ve beaten Lamar Jackson 20-17 or 16-13, for example. It seems likely, however, that they’ll have to overcome the Colts in a shootout.

This wouldn’t have been possible in prior years, but Rodgers can allow that to happen. Rodgers is obviously not the same tremendous quarterback he once was, but he’s still playing on a relatively high level this year. Rodgers will have the luxury of attacking an Indianapolis secondary missing some personnel, so he’ll be able to maintain a strong connection with DK Metcalf.

Rodgers will need to do the majority of the work because the Steelers won’t be able to count on their running game doing very much. Indianapolis is a solid 12th against the rush, so Jaylen Warren won’t find much running room.

RECAP: This didn’t quite work last week, but Mike Tomlin is often a great bet as an underdog. Tomlin is 64-37 against the spread when getting points in his career. He’s also 59-48 against the spread following a defeat. You want to back the Steelers in these situations rather than when they’re laying points or coming off a victory.

I also think this spread is a bit inflated. It’s nothing egregious, but I made the line Colts -1.5. The advance line was -2.5. And yet, it’s been bumped up to -3, based on last week’s results. I’ll take the value and side with the Steelers, though I’m not overly eager to bet on them because we’re clearly going with the inferior team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Pick change, though I’m still not betting this game. Andy Iskoe made a convincing argument for the Colts during a near-4-hour live stream:

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.

Computer Model: Colts -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 80% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Mike Tomlin is 64-37 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 137-102 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 32-25 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 44-29 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Aaron Rodgers is 5-5 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .