2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: Bears at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: For once, the quarterback situation wasn’t to blame in a Bengals loss this year. Joe Flacco did what he could, scoring 38 points against the Jets. It wasn’t enough, however, as the Jets outscored Cincinnati by one.

Flacco should be able to repeat what he did this past Sunday. Chicago couldn’t stop a Baltimore offense piloted by Tyler Huntley. There were two primary reasons for that. First, the Bears generate no heat on the quarterback. They have 85 pressures through seven games, which is just sad. And second, Chicago was down its top three cornerbacks last week. If that happens again, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will have such an easy time getting open.

The Bengals will get something out of their rushing attack as well, though not as much as they did last week. Chase Brown has a better shot of running well with Flacco at the helm, but the Bears are better against the rush than the pass.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Like the Bears, the Bengals were down some serious talent this past Sunday. In fact, we bet the Jets over point total live when Trey Hendrickson got hurt. The Bengals are devoid of talent on this side of the ball for the most part. Hendrickson is the part that’s not devoid of talent, so when he got hurt, the Jets scored easily.

We’ll see if Hendrickson can play. If not, the Bears will have a much easier time than they did last week against a healthy Baltimore squad. Caleb Williams will have an eternity to find his receivers against Cincinnati’s shoddy secondary, as the Bengals have some miserable defensive backs starting all over their defensive backfield, aside from D.J. Turner. If Hendrickson can play, however, Cincinnati will get some pressure on Williams, who is known to hold the ball too long.

The Bears, of course, will attempt to run on the Bengals. This shouldn’t be too difficult, given that Cincinnati is dead last versus ground attacks. Breece Hall just had a monster game, so D’Andre Swift will simply continue what Hall did last week.

RECAP: This pick will be dictated by the availability of some of the injured players. We’ll have to see how Hendrickson and Chicago’s cornerbacks look in practice. This will be crucial because the opposing offense will have a huge edge versus the other team if the opponent is missing their key defensive players. Hendrickson is such a big difference-maker for Cincinnati, while cluster injuries that can be greatly exposed are never good.

I’m going to lean with the Bengals for now because I don’t think the Bears deserve to be road favorites. Three of Chicago’s four wins have come against bad teams, and two of their victories were extremely lucky, so we can safely say that the Bears are overrated. However, if Chicago gets its corners back, while the Bengals miss Hendrickson, then I will side with the visitor.

Check back later for an update on this pick!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bengals are in a rough spot. Joe Flacco didn’t practice Wednesday, and neither did Trey Hendrickson. If Jake Browning starts, I can’t back the Bengals at all. Hendrickson being sidelined makes the Bengals much less appealing as well. I may end up betting the Bears, but that would require the receivers and cornerbacks being healthy. Tyrquie Stevenson practiced on Wednesday, which was obviously a good sign, but none of the receivers practiced. We’ll have to see what the injury report looks like on Friday.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.5.

Computer Model: Bears -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 63% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .