2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Buccaneers at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted two live bets during the Chiefs-Jaguars game. I tweeted out that I was betting the Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes rushing overs, and both hit. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield is currently third in MVP voting odds, and it’s not difficult to see why. Mayfield has led the Buccaneers to a 5-1 record despite missing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for a majority of games. And last week, when Emeka Egbuka went down, Mayfield was able to will his team to victory throwing to Sterling Shepard and two unknowns.

Mayfield hasn’t battled a tough defense without all three receivers, however, so it remains to be seen if he can thrive in this sort of situation. The Lions have some major issues in their secondary – Brian Branch’s suspension won’t help – but Detroit has a strong pass rush that could cause problems for a Tampa Bay offensive line missing two starters.

Mayfield will have to do it all on his own, as the Lions sport a top-five run defense. Even if Bucky Irving returns, it’s highly unlikely that the Buccaneers will be able to establish anything on the ground versus Detroit’s stalwart front.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions won’t be able to run either. They base their offense on being able to pound the ball with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, but the Buccaneers simply don’t allow opposing running backs to gain even 50 yards on the ground. Gibbs and Montgomery won’t be able to find many running lanes.

Jared Goff, like Mayfield, will need to do more in this game. The problem with that is Tampa Bay’s pass rush, which has greatly improved this year. The Buccaneers have an excellent 135 pressures through six games, which is among the league’s best figures.

Goff wouldn’t have such issues with this pass rush last year, but with Taylor Decker injured, and Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler gone this past offseason, he could be under siege often. Luckily for Goff, he’ll be able to release the ball quickly and connect with his many talented weapons. Decker returning would allow Goff to have more time in the pocket to find these weapons downfield.

RECAP: I’d like to take the Buccaneers completely seriously, but I just can’t. They’re 5-1, but they haven’t battled a team better than Group C this year, save for the Eagles. And that game was a blowout until Lane Johnson got hurt in the second half, allowing Mayfield to mount a comeback which he couldn’t quite complete.

The Lions are certainly above Group C, and yet this line is only -5.5. If Detroit is Group A – and it certainly has looked like it belongs in that group if Week 1 is excluded – then this line should be -7.5 at least.

I could maybe buy into the Buccaneers because of their run defense if they were healthy, but if Mayfield continues to be down all of his receivers, he will struggle to beat a superior opponent. Sure, he defeated the 49ers, but that San Francisco team was ravaged by injuries, including one to Fred Warner during the course of the game. The Lions have issues in the secondary and left tackle – assuming Decker is out again – but are getting healthier elsewhere, so I love the -5.5 in this matchup.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Lions are coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -4.5.

Computer Model: Lions -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

The Buccaneers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 79% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Road Team is 147-101 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Lions -4.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Dome.