2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Packers at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: We currently don’t know Kyler Murray’s status. Murray wasn’t needed last week, as Jacoby Brissett quarterbacked the Cardinals well. He nearly led Arizona to an upset victory over the 5-1 Colts. He proved once again that he’s one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL.

Murray may be needed, however, if Green Bay’s defense is legitimate. This is because backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top-10 defenses. The Packers certainly looked like they had a top-10 defense in the first two weeks of the season when they put the clamps on the Lions and Redskins. It’s unclear what has happened since, but they’ve been torched by the CeeDee Lamb-less Cowboys and Joe Flacco. As a result, they are ranked 19th in defense.

The strength of Green Bay’s defense is obviously Micah Parsons and the rest of the pass rush. However, the Cardinals have a quality blocking unit. Murray’s mobility will be crucial here, as he’ll be able to escape some pressure and pick up some first downs with his legs.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Ask anyone which team in this game has the higher defensive rating, and almost everyone would say the Packers. However, the Cardinals have a better EPA rating on defense. This is because of an improved defensive line and secondary.

The Packers aren’t completely healthy up front, particularly in the interior of the line, so that’s an area in which the Cardinals can win and bother “No Cookie” Jordan Love. While Love is seen by many as a mediocre quarterback, he currently ranks second on the season in quarterback EPA. This is impressive, given the injuries Green Bay has in its receiver corps. Love should be able to engineer numerous scoring drives.

Green Bay should be able to get Josh Jacobs going as well. Jacobs doesn’t have as easy of a matchup this week as he did versus the Bengals this past Sunday, but he should still perform well because the Cardinals are ranked in the middle of the pack versus ground attacks.

RECAP: We have an overrated entity versus an underrated team. The Packers defense, seen as great, are ranked just 19th in EPA following Week 1. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are viewed as pedestrian because of their underwhelming 2-4 record, but they’re 13th in defense and 18th in offense. All four of their losses have been by one score, and all four were a play away from being Arizona victories.

With that in mind, this line is too high. I made the spread Arizona +3.5, but it’s sitting at +6.5. If I’m correct, we’re getting a top key number in six and a minor key number in four. That’s a ton of value for Arizona.

This is also an awful spot for the Packers. They’re coming off a win, and after this “easy” game against a 2-4 opponent, they have to battle the 4-1 Steelers on Sunday Night Football. This, of course, is the first time they’ll be battling their former quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.

Furthermore, the public likes Green Bay because they remember how great they were in the first two weeks of the season, but that was against the Lions, who had trouble preparing for Week 1 because of all their coaching changes, and the Redskins in one of those weird Thursday night games. This is a nice opportunity to fade the public, which has gotten slaughtered this year.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Packers, coming off a win, have to battle Aaron Rodgers next week.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -5.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Slight lean on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 62% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 60-44 ATS in the regular season.

Cardinals are 51-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Kyler Murray is 21-10 ATS as an underdog. ???

Opening Line: Packers -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.