2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Chiefs at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s been two weeks, yet we’ve seen no signs of life from the Chiefs on this side of the ball. Granted, they’ve battled the Chargers and Eagles, and now they get to taken on a team that just surrendered 40 points to the opposition, so they’ll have a chance for a breakout game, right?

Well, maybe not. Even though the Giants allowed 40 points to the Cowboys, they still hve some great things going for them defensively. The pass rush, primarily, is fantastic. This is not good news for the Chiefs, who can’t block at all. Kansas City has two major liabilities at left guard and right tackle, and while their left tackle is a promising rookie, he’s not very good yet either. The Giants, armed with some terrific front-seven personnel, can capitalize on this weakness.

The Chiefs also aren’t running the ball well to compensate for their lackluster passing attack. Patrick Mahomes is doing everything on his own, scrambling with reckless abandon. The Chiefs will pick up some first downs this way, but that’s not sustainable.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Giants allowed 40 points to the Cowboys, they also scored 37 in a thriller. Russell Wilson launched so many beautiful moon balls, and Malik Nabers completely dominated.

It would be surprising, however, if the Giants continued to perform this way. Remember that their offense was barely functional in Week 1. Like the Chiefs, the Giants have poor blocking, which the Cowboys couldn’t take advantage of this past Sunday. While Kansas City has holes on the offensive line, the defensive front is packed with talent. Wilson will be running for his life in this game, especially if Andrew Thoms is sidelined again.

The Giants won’t be able to run the ball either. Cam Skattebo looked impressive last week, but he’ll have a tough task this week because the Chiefs have a top-tier ground defense.

RECAP: The Chiefs are 0-2, but they’ve battled two teams in the top five of the NFL Power Rankings. Some may think the sky is falling, but the Chiefs are just a couple of plays away fom being 2-0 versus two very difficult opponents.

The Giants are not a difficult opponent. Steve Spagnuolo will have a better game plan for Wilson than Matt Eberflus did last week. New York’s offense was pathetic against a real defense in Week 1, so I wouldn’t put too much stock into what Wilson did against that Dallas abomination in Week 2.

Not only are the Chiefs the better team; they’re also in a great spot. They’ll be desperate to climb out of their 0-2 hole, so they’ll be treating this like a must-win game.

I’d say that Kansas City should be able to win pretty comfortably, but I worry about their offensive line going up against a very talented Giants defensive front. Kansas City hasn’t shown an ability to pass protect very well, so the Giants should be able to take advantage of that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Patrick Mahomes showed up on the injury report with a wrist. He practiced fully, but that’s something to monitor.

SATURDAY NOTES: Evan Daniel talked me off the Chiefs during out Thursday night pick show:

I may actually bet the Giants if Andrew Thomas is active. I’ll let you know a half hour before the game.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I love Patrick Mahomes over 26.5 rushing yards. Mahomes has run for 57 and 66 yards in his first two games because he’s had no choice. He has no one to throw to at the moment. We can safely bet his rushing overs until Rashee Rice returns from suspension. The best number is over 26.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

We’re going to DraftKings for our same-game parlay because they’re offering a 33-percent boost on this game. We’re going with Mahomes over 29.5 rushing yards, Cam Skattebo under 36.5 rushing yards, and Theo Johnson over 21.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $174.50. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’ll have to see what Andrew Thomas’ status is. That’ll dictate whether or not I bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no words for what happened today. I thought last week was bad with those three back-door drives in the final minute, but we had the Eagles blocked field goal and then the 49ers spread being decided by a safety. Whatever. I’m too tilted to do anything here outside of a promo I’ll let you know about, though Andrew Thomas will be back in the lineup. I thought the sharps might come in on the Giants, but they haven’t touched this game. The best line is +6 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

As for the promo, FanDuel is offering a 50-percent boost, up to $50. FanDuel has a line of +5.5, so we need to take an alt line of +6.5. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chiefs will be desperate to climb out of an 0-2 hole.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 55% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 100-26 SU, 66-58 ATS (52-44 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 13-10 ATS after a loss.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-12 ATS as a road favorite of 7+. ???

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 64 degrees. Light wind.